Almanac Rugby League – 2022 NRL Round 17 Preview: When no penalty constitutes a huge penalty

 

 

Round 16 proved to be as decisive as I expected with regard to sorting out the ladder. It’s hard to see the Panthers missing out on the minor premiership; the Storm and Cowboys look entrenched in the top four while the Sharks took a firm hold on fourth; the Eels have blown their credibility even though they’ll feature in the finals; the Dragons are kidding themselves as finalists even though they hang on to 8th spot – the Sea Eagles are probably more deserving; and the Roosters have it all to do as they now sit two games out off the finals. As for those lower down the ladder, there’s always next year.

 

No doubt the hard luck stories of the weekend were the Raiders and the Roosters. Yes, the Raiders had their chances if they were good enough but that doesn’t excuse a series of baffling non-decisions at the very end when Canberra should have received as many as three penalties in the last five minutes, two of them absolute gimmes in front of the posts and the other very kickable. No penalty was a huge penalty, possibly season defining. In a similar vein, the Roosters (of whom I am no fan at all!) got the raw end of the whistle on several occasions, particularly with regard to the Verrill’s penalty and the Crichton sin bin. Both very hard to fathom, to put it politely. Consequently, both the Roosters and the Raiders are two games out of the top eight and battling to rescue their seasons.

 

This weekend sees a limited Round 17 with just four games of offer.

 

The Sharks host the Storm tonight with both teams missing players on Origin duty – Talakai for the Sharks, Munster and Grant for the Storm – while Kaufusi will also be absent on compassionate grounds. Given the fierce rivalry between these two teams over the past five or so years, I expect this to be a testy contest. The Sharks have been travelling well of late but a late complication with Covid issues may cause problems. Melbourne look vulnerable at the moment and will look to the likes of Hughes, the Bromwich brothers and Papenhuyzen to regain their form. I think Melbourne’s absentees will be harder to overcome than Cronulla’s so I’ll go with the Sharks. Courageous?

 

Tomorrow night the Knights host the Rabbitohs in Newcastle. Both are coming off morale-boosting wins last time around; both sides lose key players to Origin – Ponga and Gagai for Newcastle, Arrow, Cook and Murray for the Rabbitohs. Ouch! – for both sides. I think the outcome of this game rests with the Newcastle forward pack which looks so good on paper but has not been consistent in their effort. If the Novocastrians are to have any aspirations of finals footy, they simply have to win this one against a team above them on the ladder which is significantly weakened by key absences. They have the personnel and the home ground advantage, so it’s now or never. The presence of Mitchell is the ace up the sleeve for Souths and he’ll carry a heavy load of responsibility into this game. It’s also another opportunity for Cody Walker to step up in a key clash. Both teams have a tough month ahead so a win in this one will be worth a lot in the countdown to September. I’ll go with the Rabbitohs.

 

The Tigers are at home to the Eels on Saturday night and, as poorly as the Eels have been of late, it’s hard to find the courage to suggest that the Tigers will trouble them. Paulo may be missing but there’s still a lot of grunt in the Parramatta pack led by Campbell-Gillard. The Tigers are in all sorts of difficulties both on and off the field and another loss here will see them drop to last spot on the ladder on points differential. The Eels comfortably.

 

The round closes with the Broncos at home to the Dragons. The absence of Ben Hunt is huge for the Dragons – yet again he drove them (somewhat fortuitously) to their win over the (unlucky) Raiders with a wet weather masterpiece on Sunday. Somehow they have to cover for him. But the Broncos will be without as many as 10 first choice players because of Origin duty or injuries. Everything screams ‘Dragons!’ but footy is a funny game. The Dragons are 8th by default (and luck); the Broncos are a different side this year and have shown that they can win without some of their big names. But I think the scale of their absentees this week will be too much and the Dragons will be sufficiently man-powered to grind out a win. Another stroke of luck for the red and whites!

 

So my winners this week are the Sharks, Rabbitohs, Eels and Dragons.

 

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