Almanac Racing: Sal’s preview: Guineas Day Preview – A Hit for Six

Greeting All,

 

Footy not quite taking the back seat with the tribunal appeal and actual activity in the opening week of the trade marathon.  Toby Greene’s extra three at the behest of the league is interesting.  Everyone has their opinion of Toby and opinions on the penalty will fall in line with those.  The question is how many other penalties over the last couple of years have been ‘manifestly inadequate’ that league has chosen not to appeal?

 

In what was expected to be a quiet trading period it seems like deals are actually getting done.  Carlton appears to have achieved their targets with Cerra, Hewitt and Young.  The Pies and Dogs look like they have the ammunition to ensure they snare a couple of sons of guns plus ‘Freddie’ Kreuger and possibly Lipinski to follow.  All focus on Dawson to Adelaide and finding the right price, reckon Sydney are right in standing their ground.

 

Enough footy it’s

 

Track Time

 

The Caulfield Carnival kicks off on Saturday with a ten race program and three of those at the top level.  The weather can best be described as unpredictable but with a bit of rain this week the track should be in good shape and give everyone their chance.  To the north the meeting is at Royal Randwick with the Spring Champion being feature and an important guide to the Derby and Oaks.

 

Caulfield

 

The day kicks off with the babies, best to finish lunch and get ready to climb in to the rest of the program.  The Weekend Hussler (R2, Listed, 1400m, HCP) follows and it’s a beauty, as much as I like Buffalo River (R2, #2) he is proving an expensive commodity not having saluted for 74 weeks so wary of taking too short a price.  Better value in Newhart (R2, #3), Bob has good strike and was in the market last start.  Lombardo (R3, #7) is running good times and is justifiably at a very short price, reckon Pandemic (R3, #3) is the best chance knock him off.  Some very nice fillies take to the track in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes (R4, G3, 1200m, Fillies SWP), gonna have sneaky five each way on Sneaky Five (R4, #2).  Hasn’t raced since last November but is undefeated from her two starts.  The Schillacci (R5, G2, 1100m, WFA) gets the second level of sprinters – some would argue September Run (R5, #4) is in the top level.  Her best wins this and if she does could get an invitation to the Everest next week.

 

Race 6 – Might and Power Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Formerly the Caulfield Stakes but great to have a raced named after the champ whose tearaway win in the 1997 Caulfield Cup is one of the most memorable performances at the Heath.  We might have one just as good going around here in Zaaki (2) as he progresses to the Cox Plate, he wins but not sure how you make a dollar.  Probabeel (5) chased him home at Sandown and probably will again, Nonformist (3) is getting ready for the Cup next week and Homesman (1) ran well in the JRA Cup.

 

Selections – 2-5-3-1

 

The quaddie kicks off with the mares contesting the Northwood Plume (R7, G3, 1200m, Mares SWP).  There will be a few in the quaddie, prime one will be Tailleur (R7, #4) for GSOB – well drawn and Ollie.

 

Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo SW)

 

Anamoe (1) has dominated the conversation and the betting for this race until the barrier draw put him in the visitors rooms.  This raised the hopes of his conqueror in the Blue Diamond Artorius (2) who gets an inside draw – perhaps a little too inside for his racing style but the majority of winners of this race come from barrier six or below.  If the winner comes outside those two it will be at a decent price.  Giannis (7) trained by Waller, piloted by B Prebble and perfectly drawn has plenty going for it.  Speaking of handy trainers PGM has Lightsaber (6) coming off a win in the prelude and will be in the front half of the field, expect him to be battling on in final furlong.  Remember to look out for Forgot You (8) with a view to the Derby.

 

Selections – 2-1-7-6

 

Race 9 – Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP)

 

Most were thunderstruck with the performance of I’m Thunderstruck (11) who stormed home in the Rupert Clark.  Gets a cushy gate here and not sure they can hold him out.  Sierra Sue (3) did last time but has paid the price with an extra 3½ kg to lump, as did Dice Roll (6) who gets an extra 1½ kg.  Elephant (4) has only ever been beaten by a nose so it takes a good one to do it, that was on the only soft track he had encountered.  His conqueror was Superstorm (2) up in the weights but has the class.  Will Clarken has developed a habit of targeting the right races in Melbourne to swoop on, Second Slip (13) has caught a few out before and a great on pace jockey in Linda Meech.  Top pick is easy – the rest are a raffle!

 

Selections – 11-4-2-13

 

We close out with the Herbert Power Hcp (R10, G2, 2400m, HCP) providing the winner a ticket into next week’s Caulfield Cup.  A terrific renewal of the race – picking Delphi (5) who looks to be progressing beautifully for an attack on the cups.  Very wary of Tooradin (11) a step up in grade but will lead them up and take some catching on the minimum.

 

Royal Randwick

 

The Roman Consul Stakes (R5, G2, 1200m, 3yo) can often provide a guide to the Coolmore, a throw at the stumps on O’president (R5, #3) could come up trumps.

 

Race 8 – Spring Champion Stakes (G1, 2000m, 3yo SW)

 

On the presidential theme Head of State (1) is a major chance in this race, he won the Gloaming over Profondo (2) who ran the last 200 like a shopping trolley and only just missed.  Suspect he will be better for the experience and putting him on top.  A filly completed the Flight-Spring Champion double last year and Never Been Kissed (11) got the first leg last week and the extra distance doesn’t look like an issue.  It won’t be an issue for the magnificently monikered Benaud (4) who gets the services of H Bowman.  He is by Reliable Man out of Baggy Green.

 

Selections – 2-1-11-4

 

Quaddie

 

Short priced commodities in three legs begs the question how wide do you go?  We go wide in the opener, almost go top two in the Guineas – but throw in one more.  Same philosophy in the Toorak, hoping we get it right if the favourite gets rolled.

 

Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 12

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 7

Leg 3 – 2, 4, 11, 13

Leg 4 – 4, 5, 7, 11

 

288 Combinations, $30 investment could return 10.4% of the dividend!

 

Go the Thunderer

 

Cheers Sal

 

 

 

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