Almanac Racing: Sal’s Preview – Caulfield Cup Day: A climb to the top

Greetings All,

 

The Caulfield Cup has been attacked by The Everest making for a great day of racing in both Melbourne and Sydney, with crowds back at Randwick for the first time in months!  In the meantime the AFL trade period has been and gone with not much fanfare – suspect most clubs will be happy with their lot, perhaps Hawthorn the exception.  The lack of activity only proving that the whole thing could be done in three days – as for Paddy Dangerfield’s suggestion of it closing in prime time – Please No!

 

Just the one group one event on Saturday in the Caulfield Cup, but no doubt The Everest is at least worthy of the status.  It is yet another 1200 metre sprint but it does get the best field.  Rain in both cities will have some effect on the track so selections will be banking on both track being in the soft range at best.

 

Caulfield

 

Not quite the level of races as we had last week but some keen contests.  We open proceeding with a short priced commodity in Eagles Crag (R1, #10) great record but untried on a rain affected track.   Interested in watching Saracen Knight (R1, #4) having his first run for Danny O’Brien.  Tough to separate the fillies in the second happy to be with Lady Adelaide (R2, #4) who won well on a soft track last start.  It’s the boys turn in the Gothic where Prince Alexander (R3, #7) is a chance to reign, loomed up in the Stutt but just did not see out the mile, back to 1400m puts him in the game.

 

Race 4 – Ethereal Stakes (G3, 2000m, Fillies SWP)

 

The fillies on trial for the Oaks with a big focus on Kapalua Sunset (10), smashed the field to win her maiden and certainly Brett Prebble’s pick of the O’Brien fillies.  If that form doesn’t stack then the Manifold form does with Glint of Hope (6) and Stalking (3) chasing home the quinella from the Thousand Guineas.  Biscayne Bay (1) will be suited by the rain affected track.

 

Selections – 10-6-3-1

 

Race 5 – Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3YO SWP)

 

The extra 200m will suit the placegetters from the Super Impose with little between Tiz Magic (4) and Gunstock (6), just at the price I like the former.  Out of the Derby trial Gundec (2) controlled that race and won, then at much longer odds we have Antonio Giovanni (12).  Have to respect CJW and Tony John rattled home to get second last start.  Interesting that El Patroness (13) fronts up against the boys again avoiding the stablemate in the Ethereal, she won last start so must be a chance.

 

Selections – 4-6-2-12

 

Race 6 – Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, 4YO+ SWP)

 

Are we really doing Buffalo River (8) again?  Gets more in his favour this week with the wet track, it’ll be heart in the mouth stuff.  King Magnus (10) was wining with light weights, much bigger test here but could measure up fresh.  Zoutori (1) is the class act at the top of the weights, but this is a compressed scale so rates highly.   If it gets into the heavy range will promote these two Justacanta (4) and Gaulois (5).

 

Selections – 8-10-1-4

 

Race 7 – Trastarc Stakes (G3, 1400m, Mares SWP)

 

GSOB went here instead of the cup with Collette (2) gets her preferred conditions, her best wins.  Off her game and there are few with claims.  Chaillot (4) is a beauty but here wet track credentials are not clear, Nimalee (3) does not have that question mark  and was good last start, Kahma Lass (1) beat the boys last week.  Won’t be leaving Pride of Jenni (8) out of the quaddie who will be in front for a long way.

 

Selections – 2-4-3-1

 

We get a break from the group races before the cup with the Alinghi, will take a ripper ride from the Began but going with Rubisaki (R8, #10) now that she gets it soft.

 

Race 9 – The Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, HCP)

 

The lack of internationals drops the depth of this race but not the competitiveness.  It also drops the weights with a top weight of 55.5kg and a spread of only 5½kg to the bottom.  The barrier draw did no favours to Incentivise (2) drawing the very outside, or so it seemed.  If the track is as wet as expected they will be running well off the fence by Race 9, it should almost be an advantage to him as soft ground is no issue.  If it is bottomless he is yet to run through heavy ground.  The next ones are tough with plenty in play.  Like the prospects of Young Werther (15) who stays down in the weights as he did not win a derby, he went close but lacked maturity.  He is racing much more tractably and is in good form.  Montefillia (12) was tough winning the Metropolitan three wide all the way, gets some weight relief here.  Delphi (10) and Nonconformist (16) are in great form I just have some doubt about them on the soft.  Explosive Jack (3) has paid the price of success with weight otherwise he would rate with Young Werther (15).

 

Reckon there are a few roughies that can feature also.  She’s Ideel (14) the wetter the better.  Master of Wine (11) doesn’t win often but ran well in the Bart.  Not the target for Persan (7) but ready to run well.

 

Selections – 2-15-12-10-16-3

 

Race 10 – Caulfield Sprint (G2, 1000m, HCP)

 

Two from two here and likes it wet makes it hard to go past He’s a Balter (6), one that could go past is Malkovich (3) also loves it here but carries and extra couple of kegs.  Oxley Road (9) is only having his 6^th start, looks talented and All Banter (7) just got caught last start but will be better 2^nd up.

 

Selections – 6-3-9-7

 

Royal Randwick

 

Weather will have its influence on this meeting but it will be great to hear patrons on course!  An open program and not going kick off till we have the Big Parade (R6, #5).  Has been lumping big weights to victory and gets to meet this mob on even terms.

 

Race 7 – The Everest (1200m, WFA)

 

For race followers this has been a soap opera lead by the main sponsor’s broadcaster, asking the question after almost every race what it means for the Everest.  It all stops briefly at the end of this 1200m.  The outside barrier hasn’t helped my top selection in The Inferno (8), however come race time it may not be that bad dependent on how cut up the inside becomes.  Osborne Bulls ran a mighty third down the outside rail in 2018.  He will be giving a couple of handy ones a start in Classique Legend (2) and Eduardo (3), they don’t surrender easily.  While the Godolphin war horse Trekking (5) will be peaking third up.  Could have it all wrong leaving out the likes of Nature Strip (1), Gytrash (4) and Masked Crusader (6) but the line needs to be drawn.

 

Selections – 8-2-3-5

 

Think It Over (R8, #1) will be hard to beat in the Craven Plate, Shared Ambition (R8, #2) and Hungry Heart (R8, #11) the most likely to challenge.  Maher-Eustice send High Emocean (R9, #14) north for the St Leger, looks well placed with 53kg.

 

Quaddie

 

A two quaddie strategy all around the cup.  One where we go wide in the cup and short in the other legs while in the other we will narrower in the cup and spread the selections in the other legs.  Maybe get both!

 

Quaddie 1 – Go wide in the Cup

 

Leg 1 – 2, 4

Leg 2 – 2, 9, 10

Leg 3 – 2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17

Leg 4 – 3, 6

 

120 Combinations, $30 investment could return 25% of the dividend!

 

 

Quaddie 2 – The main chances in the cup

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg 2 – 2, 4, 6, 9, 10

Leg 3 – 2, 10, 12, 15, 16

Leg 4 – 3, 6, 9

 

375 Combinations, $30 investment could return 8% of the dividend!

 

Go on – Incentivise me!

 

Cheers Sal

 

Two books will be published in the lead-up to Christmas 2021. The Tigers (Covid) Almanac 2020  as will the 2021 edition to celebrate the Dees’ magnificent premiership season (title is up for discussion at the moment!). These books will have all the usual features – a game by game account of the Tigers and Demons season – and will also include some of the best Almanac writing from these two Covid winters. Enquiries  HERE

 

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