Almanac Racing – rolling the dice

Check out Ladbrokes for all promarkets on the AFL and NRL Grand Finals, as well as all the action at Caulfield, Royal Randwick and Doomben.

Ladbrokes have the full range of betting options now – quaddies, trifectas, first fours etc as well as fixed price win and place.

 

Captain Hindsight is everywhere in the next month. Perfect 20/20 (rear) vision is the power that he is most associated with. Captain Hindsight can immediately know how an event could have been avoided just by looking at the scene.

(from Coon2: Hindsight)

“There’s people trapped in that burning building, Captain Hindsight!” – Firefighter

“And the fire is so massive, we can’t get to them!” – Other Firefighter

“Hm. You see those windows on the right side? They should have built fire escapes on those windows for the higher floors, then people could have gotten down. And then on the roof; they should have built it with a more reinforced structure, so a helicopter could have landed on it.” – Captain Hindsight

“Yes, of course!” – Firefighter

“And then you see that building to the left?” – Captain Hindsight

“Yes!” – Firefighter

“They shouldn’t have built that there, because now you can’t park any firetrucks where you really need to. Well, looks like my job here is done. Goodbye everyone!” – Captain Hindsight

“Thank you, Captain Hindsight!” – Firefighter

*Cheers* – Everyone

(the people perished, by the by!)

 

Even if you’ve not seen the South Park episode you’ll recognise the traits in tipsters and punters as the Carnival reaches its banner races. “What you shoulda done”… “Why didn’t you back that?”  “The idiot jockey didn’t switch back to the rails where the gap miraculously opened.” “That running double/Quaddy/(insert whatever) was obvious.”  “It was ridiculous odds.”

After the revisionists have had their say, the questioning begins for the subsequent feature: “What do you like?”

It’s not an easy one to answer this week. Foresight’s much trickier.

This is a really strong edition of the time-honoured Caulfield Cup. The calibre of the Emergencies attests to that. But whilst that’s an impressive stat, people are generally less interested in relative ratings and more concerned with the eternal question…”What’ll win?” The truth is that as they fan around the famed tight turn on Saturday most of us will still be unsure, but that doesn’t stop folk from having a selection and then from declaring retrospective genius. It’s both part of the fun and the frustration of the next month.

Finding a winner requires making a call on vastly differing formlines. In recent years success has meant backing a horse “sight unseen”. The Brits and now the Japanese have proven themselves superior to the local talent. But how do you justify plonking your hard earned on a statistical imperative? The alternatives, alas, are proven unsuccessful and “no bet” is not part of the game at this stage of the year. So we roll the dice…albeit a loaded dice. Out go the Aussies. Reluctantly, the good Kiwis also get a line put through them. I’ll judge the Japs to be Flemington bound and, by elimination, leave myself with 2, 7 and 19 (with perhaps the 1 also qualifying). Of these, I’m going to have a nibble at 70/1 Quest For More. If it fails to gain a start I can default to the “woulda won”…but, if he does get in he looks way overs with a good gate and terrific consistency at this trip and I can retreat to a “good roughie” excuse!

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Noteworthy amongst several other highlights on another marathon day is the Tristarc (MR8, 1400m, Mares, SWP, G2), named for the mighty mare whose Caulfield Cup win (one of her 5 top notch G1s) was in 1985 – thirty years ago now. Perhaps the MRC could’ve used this day to have a commemoration of her “larrikin” trainer, Ross McDonald, who passed away last December. His Caulfield legacy is immense – Imposera also won a Cup there (1988) and, distinguished on a long list of local triumphs, I’ll add Courtza’s Diamond (1989) and Weekend Hussler’s many heroics. They should really run along in this Saturday’s G2 and Catkins is obviously the one to beat at the conditions. Personally I’d rather take the 12/1 Solicit (by Street Cry of course).

If you’re starting to bet relatively early on the card, you’ll be paying heed to the tricky Caulfield Sprint (MR2, 1000m, H’cp, G2). There’s uncertainty over whether or not Kinglike will run, so hold fire for a bit. Ball Of Muscle will go fast and always gives a sight. Lumosty and Kuro might end up contesting favouritism and there’s a watch on Headwater. Good little race.

Without time to cover the whole card just yet, I’ll revert to an old priority and try to find one in the “get out” (MR10, 1100m, SWP, F+M, Listed – 6:15pm). As usual they’ve fixture a wide closer for the Quaddy, but I reckon The Messina Nymph (about 7/1?) is the saviour. Hope so.

It’s a long day so, other than showing restraint, you must have some consistent collects.

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Caulfield Cup Day is entrenched in the psyche of Australian racelovers. It was, back in the day, the first leg of the big double and, with spread weights, a ferocious betting occasion. It is also the property of the south-east ‘burbs, who cherish the national focus – it was only when I lived for a year out near Oakleigh (1982!!) that I came to realise that, for many in that part of the Melways, this was the big one. Since then it has deservedly maintained its place both as a prize to be sought but also as a bacchanalian indulgence that sets a high bar for the following carnivals. Can’t say I’d recommend attendance, but the race remains a must-watch. For those on course, try to scam in to the owners/trainers enclosure in the old main betting ring as it offers pretty good space and facilities and I can attend to any betting needs.

Until then, let’s try to find some winners. I’m in awful form so any kick-start would be greatly appreciated.

Good luck!

Sal Ciardulli has been in good tipping form recently. Read his Caulfield Cup preview here.

 

Check out Ladbrokes for all promarkets on the AFL and NRL Grand Finals, as well as all the action at Caulfield, Royal Randwick and Doomben.

Ladbrokes have the full range of betting options now – quaddies, trifectas, first fours etc as well as fixed price win and place.

Comments

  1. Cowshedend says:

    Excellent Crio, good old Captain Hindsight, a very old and dear acquaintance of mine,someone i have drawn great solace from over the years.
    Willing to save Fame Game for Flemington, the inside draw will do him no favours as he’s a get back type.
    As i was on Mongolian Khan last week should follow up…but no, 7 day back up from a very firm surface sacks him, been 12 years since Mummify won at the Heath on a 7 day back up.
    Backing Rising Romance with a fair degree of confidence, wide from the gate in the Turnbull, gets a great gate and a brilliant hoop in D.Lane….i’m on!

  2. Peter Flynn says:

    Crio,

    2/3/5/6/14/17 in the C Cup.

    Backing Mongolian Khan, Rising Romance and Snow Sky.

    I’m at Ascot this Saturday.

    Forgotten Rules in the 12:45pm. Simenon running. Group 2 stayers championship.

    Gordon Lord Byron a place chance in the 1:20pm. Group 1 sprint.

    Solow v Gleneagles in the QE2 mile. Superb Group 1.

    Jack Hobbs in the Champion Stakes.

    Covert Love in the Group 1 fillies and mares.

    PF

  3. Champions Day at Ascot! Lucky you. For the unaware, this relatively recent initiative is a rich finale to the European Flat Racing season. Great concept – is it a bridge too far for many of them Flynny, or are they starting to target the opportunity to cash in and gain blacktype and prestige? I enviously note there’s just the 6 races, 35 minutes apart, and an after party programmed to kick-off at 3.55pm. Bless ’em

  4. Does Gleneagles even exist? Seems to get scratched from all proposed engagements…

  5. Peter Flynn says:

    It is a bridge too far for a few of the middle distance champs Crio.

    The race that is most affected is the Champion Stakes 1m 2f.

    Very few if any Arc horses back up for example.

    The Champions Mile is the highlight. Should be a cracker.

    Yep love the 6 races. All over by 4pm and then it’s time to tell war stories with old Muckers.

    Good punting to you all.

  6. Sydney themed horses tmrw –
    R4 Ambience
    R7 Rock Sturdy
    R8 Catkins

    No idea how the track will play!

    $200k big 6 jackpot, here are my thoughts:

    R5 – 1,6,10,13 fillies ran 1/2 in this last year
    R6 – 1,5,6
    R7 – 5,8,9 5/9 look value Vs 8
    R8 – 2,6 tempted to take catkins one out
    R9 – 2,6,12,16 internationals the unknowns. possible lack of early pace, meant they push forward?
    R10 – 3,4,6,12 open race

    8.68% for $100

  7. Reckon you’re around the money there mate. ambience was terrific last start. Not sure yet re Rock Sturdy but, despite all indicators screaming Under The Louvre, I’ve long ago sacked it – might nibble Setinum.
    In the mares’ race I’ll give Girl In Flight another chance at the 25/1

  8. Cowshedend says:

    How good was Ayres Rock at Flemington? Unlike most classic Gauci rides of getting to the front stacking them up then letting it go 2 furlongs out, he just let it roll and it just kept going, the Heath is a lot easier to do that than HQ!

  9. Cowshedend says:

    Could be talked into Weir’s thing Mahuta in the 2nd, gave them the date finger at Kyneton but ran a pox time, video was impressive but might have just been cats he was running against.

  10. Off to Wodonga Saturday. After spending the last 7 Caulfield Cup days at Avoca this time we’re heading north.

    The feature race of the day is the last, the Kelsey watts memorial handicap. It’s to raise awareness and funds to tackle the scourge of ovarian cancer. Kelsey’s sister ,Tama,a was formerly my boss @ Western Region Health Centre. So this year, finally, we’ll be on track in Wodongs for this big day.

    Caulfield has been the bane of my betting life, so if i’m tempted to have a flutter, it’d be Set Square in the Cup. i’ve probably mozzed it now.

    Glen!

  11. I’d be tempted by Weiry’s thing with Ben E. Thompson aboard in the Avoca Cup

  12. I think Ben E copped 11 meetings for interference yesterday. If he pushes for a stay in proceedings to keep this ride then get on.

  13. Caulfield Cup
    1 – Mongolian Khan
    2 – Rising Romance
    3 – Gust Of Wind

  14. No surprises with the Budge’s Cup selections after spruiking Mongolian Khan for many weeks, I’m of a similar opinion and I’m after the pick 4.
    1. Rising Romance
    2.Gust of Wind
    3. Who Shot The Barman
    4. Mongolian Khan
    I’m also a fan of Rock Sturdy in the 7th, I backed it in the Doomben 10,000 where it got poleaxed at about the 800, so it owes me…like most do.
    I’m giving Etymology another chance in the 5th and can also report that Eclair Attack is not a 20/1 shot but should be more like 6/1-8/1, it’s a pretty good horse and certainly a chance.
    I cannot understand why Kinglike is only 7/2 in the 3rd, pretty short for an inexperienced horse. If Lumosity runs up to it’s previous first up win it will be ‘how far’

    Nothing to get excited about in Adelaide but I did notice that Moody has Runway Star in Sydney for the main sprint and it’s dynamic first up so I’ll be on board- it can run an amazing last 400 metres so speed on would help,currently 20’s.

  15. the spruik has always insisted that the Kiwis are not far apart. Volkstoketc is 5 times the Mongolian odds!

  16. yeah but the performances certainly match the market. I’ve been trying to find an excuse to be backing Volkstock n Barrell but I haven’t been able to find any evidence to suggest he can be competitive this prep.

  17. Blinkers off and soft run on pace?
    Looks like my tip won’t run so I am shopping around.
    Most years I can find a knock on most of them but tmrw you could mount a case for most.
    Better scrutinize through a pot glass!

  18. Pub, then BBQ Inn for me for steak & wine, following that I’ll attempt to catch up on some intelligent information here because I won’t get anything approaching intelligent where I’m going.

  19. We’re off, heading north to Wodonga for the races. Our big focus is on R6, the Kelsey Watts handicap, but bets will be put on across the board, far and wide.

    It’s a pity Deni is not TAB, Leveraction is a horse I’ve always liked on bush tracks.

    Happy Punting,

    Glen!

  20. Enjoy. Look forward to your report. Good luck!

  21. There is, as we can discuss some other week, a subtle difference between a pick and a punt. With my initial selection not making the final field I now need to declare my selection (not bet!). The fav deserves its staus and has to be top pick in a classic Cup. Try to avoid the trap of multiple bets reckoning you’re getting value – four bets at 16/1 is, in fact 16/4 (4/1). Throw the dart and good luck!

  22. Everyone agrees what a top lineup for this year’s Caulfield Cup but not one last start winner. That would have to be a first.

  23. Sal’s been in good form. Here is his preview – also on the site.

    https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/caulfield-cup-preview-the-cats-that-got-the-cream/

  24. Sal’s quaddie:

    Quaddie Time

    Hoping for a bank by the time we get to race 7 and typically a tough quaddie for a big meeting. We open up with the Moonga, favourite punters might go one out with Under the Louvre. I will stick with the four chosen but could entertain 2, 5 and 6 also. In the second leg happy to go skinny here on my top two, otherwise too many to put in. Need to go wide in the cup, putting in the top 8 but still might not have it. Pretty open in the last leg and taking three, but there are plenty of other hopes.

    Leg 1 – 3,4,8,9

    Leg 2 – 2,6

    Leg 3 – 2,3,4,5,6,12,14,17

    Leg 4 – 4,6,12

    With some luck it might be one of these 192 combinations and that $30 investment would return 15.6% of the dividend.

  25. Risking Kinglike at the class jump and giving Headwater the chance to build me an early buffer at juicy odds (MR3 No5).

  26. Don’t leave Gust Of Wind out of your multiples. She will run a very strong 2400m with only 51kgs. Here’s replay of her win in the ATC Oaks, her only run at the distance, when she thrashed Winx (who will be one of the favourites in the Cox Plate next week).
    https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1001247583272327&id=100001612853635

    And here’s a reminder she can come from anywhere as her first win over 1400m below illustrates
    https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1001247583272327&id=100001612853635

  27. Sorry. Here are the correct links. The first is the Oaks and the second one is her maiden win
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AYc8c8QxSuk
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_u6GYXPZes

  28. Undeniably a real chance.. but so are Lucia Valentina, Rising Romance, Who Shot Thebarman, Our Ivanhoe etc. My main query on Gust is that if she can swoop so then can the Japanese

  29. The Japanese have more than 51kgs.

  30. Mug Punter’s Literary Tip. R5 9 Etymology

  31. cowshedend says:

    You put the cue in the rack John?

  32. Unfortunately I was on Mongolian Khan instead of Magnolian Khan (as called all race by Greg Miles)

  33. cowshedend says:

    Did hear that Budge, Fame Game into $5.30 betfair

  34. Peter Flynn says:

    The flashing light won.

    My 100% Caulfield Cup record in London continues.

    Something happened to Greg Miles voice with about 700 to go.

    It was as if he couldn’t pick up the horses or couldn’t remember their names.

    Needs to retire.

    Enormous run Trip to Paris.

  35. cowshedend says:

    Hope you collected in Sterling PF!

  36. Amazingly we walked in to most winners and lost. Bookies on the lawn report a goldmine amongst the drunks.
    VBA should build a statue to Under The Louvre. Punters launched again!

  37. Flynny
    Frankie on fire.
    How far out is the rail there at Ascot?

  38. Solow too good

  39. Perseverance pays off – I’ve been a fan of Mongolian Khan for a while! Alerted all way back in March (below)

    Budge says:

    March 20, 2015 at 11:23 am

    Reckon you’re a bit tough on the Sydney card. Looks a cracker to me.
    Especially looking forward to the Rosehill Guineas. I think the market is all wrong and the NZers should be the favourites. Mongolian Khan is a beauty. Tough, genuine and classy. Volkstok’N’Barrell is a more brilliant type and wouldn’t surprise if he goes to the Doncaster after this rather than the Derby. I’ll be with Mongolian tomorrow.

    Check out Mongolian Khan’s run, particularly the last 2 against VNB (which was fave both times)

    http://www.nzracing.co.nz/SystemTemplates/RaceInfoSearch.aspx?q=mongolian khan#horse

    Find Mongolian Khan, click on performance then scroll down to the videos next to each race. Enjoy!

  40. Peter Flynn says:

    Cracking day at Ascot.

    Solow the highlight.

    Canny DK Weld wins the Champion Stakes.

    Greg Miles favorite film is Steel Mongolians.

    May go to Twickers today.

    Not sure about tout prices etc.

  41. Peter Flynn says:

    Played Budge.

  42. Hope you’re cashed up Budge.

    Notice that The Flying Doormat won at Seymour today.
    Out of the dam D’Amico – herself cleverly by Dangerous out of Helen!
    There’s a half sister to “Doormat” by Aussie Rules – do you know if it is named yet?

  43. As it happens I am cashed up. After MK won I had a couple of bets at Doomben and snagged one at $100 on betfair ( SP $31)

  44. on top in the Doomben racebook I assume?

  45. Sounds like you’re good for a loan Budge!

  46. Won’t find it in my summary just thought it way overs. Give me a bank for the Valley anyway.

  47. Impressive winners in the main races at Geelong today – anyone reckon it makes any difference to the big events?
    Crowd seemed down again…the marketing to drunken 20 somethings might need broadening. Remarkable array of bad tatts. Blokes more circumspect.

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