Almanac Racing – Guineas Day Preview: Oh my Goodness

Greetings All,

 

The horse trading is in half swing it usually doesn’t get serious till the last couple of hours before the deadline, this year we have seen a huge amount of activity already.  The horse racing is also in full swing with a mighty meeting held last week at Flemington.  It saw the unveiling for many of the new members stand – it sure does look pretty.  Just fails the functionality test.  Was always critical about the lack of seating – the old stand was tired and in need of upgrade but it did have about 6,000 seats to watch the races from – this has been reduced to about 1,500.  Those seats were full with a crowd of 22,000 – they will never cope with the numbers that will attend over the four days of the carnival.

 

The club’s logic being that those 6,000 seats were only used during the carnival – with that kind of logic we should just take off the top deck of the MCG!

 

Lucky enough to be a member – those gripes don’t take away the highlight of watching Winx running down the straight.  Is the Cox Plate a formality?  She certainly has the Turnbull field covered.  Then there was Avilius who got his Melbourne Cup ticket by winning The Bart Cummings and is now favourite.  A ripping race at Group 3 level that surely must get lifted to Group 2 after watching what went around in the Group 1 Metropolitan.  GSOB certainly got the value of the race right choosing to run his cup fancy in the Bart over the Metropolitan.

 

Results Review

 

Opened up well in Sydney with Yulong January paying for his northern sojourn, but none of the others mentioned featured at the pointy end.  Got off Maid in Heaven from the week before and shouldn’t have – great win in the Spring Champion.  Visao did have a holiday while the other three selections Thinking Big, Aramoyo and Mickey Blue Eyes all ran well and should be players on Derby Day.  In Melbourne, we saw Eckstein prove that she does run very well at Flemington.  The Weir pair were good with Extra Brut the winner.  Winx was just Winx, the potential threat from Grunt just did not happen.  We got the fillies and mares right with Amphritite and Invincibella which delivered a quaddie!

 

Climbing the Mountain

 

Two big meetings this week but only one of them featuring Group One races.  Royal Randwick hosts The Everest, if anyone had not heard of the race before this week they have now!  Anyone reading this will know I follow the races and don’t mind a punt – I also appreciate that it is not everyone’s cup of tea and it should not be forced upon the masses.  The grandstanding of this race from the Racing NSW and the government calling it a major event is ridiculous.  It is another 1200m sprint – there are usually at least two of them on every race card in Australia – Australia has plenty of sprinters.  It does have a crack field and is worthy of attention for the racing fraternity not sure the general public will give a rats with only two years of history – and potentially a shaky future after this week’s shmozzle.

 

Royal Randwick

 

Race 7 – The Everest (1200m, WFA)

 

The one thing about this race is they all need to be in pretty good form to get a spot and while there are a few of the better sprinters that could not run, the field remaining is very strong.  The other factor is Sydney weather with the track currently rated as heavy and the best it could get to being soft.  I had Brave Smash (6) on top and does have placing on soft and heavy, however the Japanese are more suited to a firm surface. Aidan O’Brien doesn’t bring them out for a holiday so reckon U S Navy Flag (8) will be ready to fire after winning the July Cup last start.  Has won 3 from 4 on rain affected ground so might just be the one.  Last year’s winner Redzel (1) should be primed third up.  Santa Ana Lane (2) just keeps on producing in big races.  Don’t reckon Le Romain (3) is up to this lot normally, the heavy conditions brings him right into is and by that time of the day the wide barrier might be an advantage..

 

Selections – 8-1-2-3

 

Caulfield

 

The Heath will host a 10 race marathon card with eight of them at group level and four at the elite.  The highlights are the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas both have solid favourites.  We kick off with unraced babies which is really just guess work.  Sticking to Grande Rosso (R2, #3) good second up record and up to this.  Sunlight (R3, #1) comes up short in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes, but I really like the win of Meryl (R3, #3) at Moonee Valley and she might present better value.  Remembering there is only value if they win!  Also going to persist with Cool Passion (R4, #2) great run first up and drops 4½ kg for this, at longer odds Split Lip (R4, #9) will be better with run under her belt.  Torn in the next, can Snitty Kitty (R5, #13) run them off their legs or will Voodoo Lad (R5, #2) chase her down?

 

Race 6 – Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo Fillies SW)

 

A similar scenario for the Fillies Classic with the undefeated Smart Melody (5) who will lead them out.  She hasn’t been run down yet, however this is her first try over 1600m.  Her stablemate El Dorado Dreaming (1) has a Group 1 victory and meets the favourite with a 1kg advantage from last start she will be a major threat along with Thrillster (4) who split the pair last start.  Would have rated Amphitrite (7) as a chance also but for a bad barrier.  Fiesta (2) has been performing well in Sydney and not dismissing Seabrook (3) who as delivered over this distance at Group 1 level.

 

Selections – 5-1-4-2

 

Race 7 – Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP)

 

As a handicap should be a wide open affair.  Shillelagh (4) and Land of Plenty (5) both appear well weighted for this, however one starts in the car park, so putting the other on top.  That is Shillelagh (4) who ran a bottler in the Epsom, everything will need to go right for Land of Plenty (5).  Lite’n in my Veins (9) will be better for the previous run with a good record over the mile.  Hartnell (1) rarely runs a bad race, goes up in the weights for the win in the Epsom but will be around when the whips are cracking.  Could entertain a few more especially Jungle Cat (2), Dollar for Dollar (6), Noire (10) even Black Heart Bart (2) who gets weight relief after competing in WFA races most of the time.

 

Selections – 4-5-9-1

 

Race 8 – Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Is the Epsom form better than the Underwood form?  Then there are the internationals.  Humidor (2) was closing well in the Underwood and will appreciate the extra 200m, no doubting his class so can win.  Blair House (7) would have finished closer if not for a tardy start, will be a threat if he jumps well.  The Waller pair D’argento (10) and Unforgotten (5) certainly have the class to win, this is their first look at Caulfield and rise in weight from the Epsom.  Cannot discount Homesman (6) and Tosen Basil (3) who did quinella the Underwood, neither Nightswatch (8) as he prepares for the cup next week.

 

Selections – 2-7-3-10

 

Race 9 – Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo SW)

 

The stallion maker sees The Autumn Sun (1) going in as a warm favourite.  Has a booming finish and should be able to chase them down provided JMac can get him around Caulfield successfully.  Native Soldier (2) has no issues getting around this track and will set the pace, could not be caught last two runs here but needs to run out the trip.  Oohood (15) broke her hoodoo winning the Flight Stakes does not run a bad race and Leonardo da Hinchi (4) provides DKW with a second live chance.

 

Selections – 1-2-15-4

 

The meeting closes with another open affair win my main interest in Odeon (10).

 

Quaddie Time

 

The first two legs are wide open affairs so we will need to go wide.  The double quaddie strategy is probably advisable taking The Autumn Sun one out and the more fancied runners in the first two legs in a second investment.  Of course skinny in the last.

 

Quaddie 1

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 4, 15

Leg 4 – 1, 10

 

448 Combinations, $20 investment will return 4.4% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 7, 10, 12

Leg 3 – 1

Leg 4 – 1, 10

 

50 Combinations, $10 investment will return 20% of the dividend.

 

Go Smart Melody,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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