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Almanac Racing – A stab at the quaddie

Victorian racing returns to Flemington this Saturday for, it must be said, a very respectable nine-race card.

 

The second race is for a bunch of three-year-olds that have been regularly racing against each other this preparation and this should be another intriguing instalment. The two I like most are Wise Hero and Invincible Al. Wise Hero hasn’t raced since mid-May when it was less than three lengths off the winner but came third-last. That’s its only non-placing to date and showed loads of ability prior. Invincible Al won in eye-catching fashion last start at $10 and will rightly start a fair bit shorter this time out.

 

Races three, four and five are competitive and tough to read at this stage. Any guidance is appreciated!

 

This week I’m going to have a crack at tipping the quaddie.

 

It starts with a sprint over 1100 metres. I can make a case for plenty of horses here, but the idea is to select as few chances as possible rather than throw a blanket over them. Ability is the early favourite, but I find it hard to be confident taking it one-out. Mighty Like will line up for its first start this year and flies fresh; it beat Voodoo Lad after a spell down the straight last preparation. Every time I see Rough Justice accepted for a race I think it’s over the odds. It was strong first-up and has a good second-up record.

 

I found it very hard to like any horse’s chances in the seventh race, but Rewarding Effort’s form line reads nicely for a race lacking much quality. Trinity Hill is one that looks to be over the odds, so I’m happy enough to stick with just those two.

 

Attention will turn to Doomben just before Flemington’s eighth race when the Tatts Tiara, a Group One race over 1350 metres, is run. According to punters.com.au “inside barriers are where you want to be” for races over this distance. The early favourite is In Her Time, trained by Benjamin Smith, but it has drawn barrier 16. French Emotion would probably appeal to me as being a good chance, but it has drawn barrier 21! Prompt Response will jump from barrier eight and is the one I want to be on after winning a Group Two at the same track & distance a fortnight ago.

 

Assuming I’m still alive in the quaddie, I’ll be cheering a few horses in the third leg. Tasmanian Tshahitsi won the Echuca Cup and backed that up with a dominant win at Flemington a fortnight ago, thus appearing to be the one to catch. Cannyescent is also on a hat-trick, and a win this weekend would take its career strike rate to 50%. Loyalty Man was the closest horse to Tshahitsi last start and meets it 3.5 kg better off, but I’m not sure whether a weight advantage is worth much when comparing two mature geldings. Royal Rapture’s best is good enough to win, but I’ll probably leave it out of my numbers.

 

The last race is a typically big, even field full of chances, this time over a mile. It’s sure to break plenty of punters’ hearts, but hopefully not yours. Widgee Turf and Samovare share good form among strong company, while Greviste is freshened after a comfortable mile win at Moonee Valley. Those three are hard to split and must be included. The Passage was heavily backed in Greviste’s race and finished second. It looks to be up to the quality of this field. I’m also including Alma’s Rossa.

 

My numbers
R6 – 4, 8, 15
R7 – 6, 9
R8 – 2, 9
R9 – 2, 3, 4, 10, 12

 

Good luck if you’re having a bet!

 

About Tom Riordan

Tom Riordan is in his second year of a Bachelor of Journalism at Swinburne University. He loves all sports, and plays for Brunswick Cricket Club. He supports the Western Bulldogs and can be found on weekends among half a dozen others in Q38 on the top level of the MCC.

Comments

  1. Notice that Big Orange delivered at Ascot overnight in a thrilling slog v Order of St George. We didn’t see the best of him last spring and good judges were keen on his chances of upstaging the Lloyd Williams hot-pot. Ascot continues tonight – usually great coverage.

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