Almanac Racing: I’ve seen the light

If you knew there was a G2 race on this weekend you’re ahead of the game and don’t need much of a push from me. If you didn’t then, like most of Australia, racing doesn’t figure much in your financial plans at the moment. It’s the Villiers Stakes at Randwick (SR7, 1600m) – nothing to do with Fred! Fabrizio will be the popular elect. Here’s some useless trivia to pad out the page – Fabrizio is a latin derivation of Smith, trainer Gai’s maiden name.

 

Here in Melbourne the metrop meetings are Moonee Valley on Friday and Flemington on Saturday. No work for me. The tracks, and especially the betting rings, are empty. The prizemoney’s terrific and there’s a winner for every race but, if lured to a bet, there’d want to be a strong case to wrench open my wallet.

 

The old punting dilemma must be addressed now and in the future. Bet or not? When and how? I reckon I have backed more shorties (with a modicum of success) this year than ever. It is a change of philosophy. The old strategy was look for “overs”/bookies’ chances. Statistical wins but not many winners. The better tactic, I reckon, is to pick the winner. If it is shorter than you rate – don’t bet…but don’t fall for the trap of backing something else as “value” (you can’t eat it!). If you miss backing a winner, so be it. The greater crime is to send your money down the drain on something else. If you reckon a hot-pot can be beat, lay it. Otherwise, make your picks pre-market and then decide whether or not to bet. No bet is a reasonable option.

 

I can, of course, be talked around.

 

Good luck!