Almanac Horseracing – Sal’s Preview: Caulfield Guineas Day


Before Sal gives you the good oil (see below), we need to mention the Vo Rogue – Lynlea and Cyril Small Footy Almanac Lunch on October 21. It’s to celebrate Lynlea’s book The Vo Rogue Show. Bookings essential. Details HERE







Greetings All,


Aaahhh the AFL Trade Period – let’s take two weeks to complete what can be done in three days!  And what a shemozzle it is.  On top of winning the flag Geelong will essentially get a player (Jack Bowes) and a top 10 draft pick for free coming from a team yet to play finals and all in the guise of equalisation. The Cats have done nothing untoward here and good management does reap rewards. How they are able to amortise Jack’s $1.6M contract over four years but the Suns couldn’t seems wrong. Essentially the player can take a pay cut (per annum) to help the new club – but can’t do it with his existing club. It is all above board however at this point I will drag in Denis Denuto – “it’s the vibe” – that makes it wrong.  In the utopian world of equalisation it is exactly the thing that should not be happening.


Track Time


But it is onto the racing – the program at Flemington last week probably taught us very little. Both the Bart and the Turnbull were run at farcical speeds so as to not really give all runners a chance to produce – not to say the winners were not worthy, they showed the value of being able to sit on the speed is such races. We are off to Caulfield for the Guineas along with a couple of other top line events this week. Will need to keep an eye on the track and weather conditions with a wet Friday predicted – suspect we will be playing on a soft surface.


Opening with the babies in the first so suggest opening the first beer and watch. Old Flame (R2, #2) has excellent form in Sydney and comes up favourite, but can’t go away from Jimmy the Bear (R2, #7) gives his best every time and like the gap between runs. Probably would have Cardinal Gem (R2, #12) on top but for the outside draw.  The Thoroughbred Club Stakes (G3, 1200m, Fillies SWP) has another I like drawn the car park in Sweetened (R3, #16) it might get a better price, but prefer to take Nanagui (R3, #3) with the old firm of Moody and Nolen.  The 4th is a tough affair and giving a good chance to Pintoff (R4, #10) good fresh record, D Oliver any give in the ground a bonus.


Race 5 – Herbert Power Stakes (G2, 2400m, HCP)


Gets the treatment with the winner getting a ticket into next week’s Caulfield Cup.  My selection though is not entered in the Cup, Saracen Knight (12) has been in great form though running in weaker grade but gets in here on the minimum and will take some beating.  In equivalent form running in better company is Desert Icon (4) up in weight but has the class and JMac.  Persan (2) has to lump a big weight but rarely runs a bad race and Point Nepean (8) should be getting fitter heading towards the other cup.  Schabau (7) is another to watch provided it does not get too wet.


Selections – 12-4-2-8


Race 6 – Schillaci Stakes (G2, 1100m, WFA)


Queen of the Ball (9) attracts my interest here.  Could run against her own age and sex in race however Michael Freedman has chosen the tougher option.  Only one filly has saluted in this event before. If she can’t hold on then favouring Zoustyle (4) over the GSOB pair of Paulele (1) and Ingratiating (2).  If the rain doesn’t arrive In the Boat (6) would probably be the pick, it would also raise the prospect of Oxley Road (8)


Selections – 9-4-1-2


Race 7 – Might and Power Stakes (G1, 2000m, HCP)


The quaddie kicks off with the dress rehearsal for the Cox Plate, what a ripping race all the players from the Underwood plus Anamoe (7).  Does he have the measure of his rivals – they are known quantities in Melbourne now.  I suspect he might and goes on top.  Not losing the faith in I’m Thunderstruck (2) but he will need a bit more speed on than in the Underwood.  Zaaki (1) will be suited with the extra distance and expect Benaud (8) to be running on well in preparation for the Caulfield Cup.  Alligator Blood (3) not out of it especially if Clark can control the tempo and Mo’unga (5) is also going well.  A ripping affair!


Selections – 7-2-1-8


Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3YO SW)


The nominal favourite Aft Cabin did not get here so going with the two that chased him home in the prelude. Putting Meridius (7) just over Amenable (10) but little between them, they both have outside barriers to contend with but that might not be a disadvantage come Race 8.  Banking on them to get over the top three but might have it all wrong.  Of those Berkeley Square (2) looks very good and these are the major races targeted by Godolphin so Golden Mile (3) might just run one.  Long tail to this renewal with only Tijuana (1) to be added to the quaddie.


Selections – 7-10-2-3


Race 9 – Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP)


I Wish I Win (5) has been nothing short of impressive at his two Australian starts – didn’t get into the Rupert but made this and is a justified short favourite. The rest are tougher, Pinstripe (13) looks primed for this after a couple of good runs, Gentleman Roy (9) gets out of the way for no-one and is always tough to run down and Tuvalu (8) was excellent in the Rupert.


Selections – 5-13-9-8


The mares close out the day in the Northwood Plume (G3, 1200m, Mares SWP) and if Zapateo (3) is going to take the Godolphin ticket in the Everest then she needs to win this. Plenty of talent against her so wouldn’t take too short a price.


Quaddie Time


Typically tough day with three group ones making up the quaddie. Strategy is all important with a couple of shorties in the 3rd and 4th legs. Not as confident about Zapateo, but we will take a quaddie with I Wish I Win one out.


Quaddie 1 – I Wish


Leg 1 – 1, 2, 7

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg 3 – 5

Leg 4 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 7


75 Combinations, $20 Investment returns 26.67% of the dividend.


Quaddie 2 – Insurance


Leg 1 – 1, 2, 7

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg 3 – 8, 9, 11, 13

Leg 4 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 7


300 Combinations, $20 Investment returns 6.67% of the dividend.


I Wish I Win!


Cheers, Sal



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