Greetings All,
While the AFL’s ridiculously long trade period continues the Spring Carnival goes up a notch with Caulfield Guineas day featuring three group one events. This week we have also had some formalisation of the thawing of relations between Racing Victoria and Racing NSW with The Everest and All Star Mile both getting Group One status. Both races have attracted quality fields plus delivered great races and intrigue since inception so both are worthy of the status. Let’s hope it also drives conversation on rationalisation of group racing around the country. There are far too many group one races in the 1000-1400 metre range and they become a bit meaningless. Not to mention some of the G2 and G3 events. We have group status races for 2YO all having their first start – it is completely ridiculous and purely driven by the breeding industry. It might be nise in some of the stud books but if there are so many meaningless group and black type races then the books become meaningless themselves.
But we do have a great program to dissect and possibly another sign of the thawing being that the Sydney meeting at Rosehill does not have a G1 event on the program.
Caulfield
We have fine weather predicted and the promise of a good surface which should lead to good, competitie racing. The day opens with an interesting race with a variety of form lines but overall hard to look past Saban (R1, #8) who looked very good winning at Flemington, goes up a grade but looks well up to it. Some interest in the bottom three for value – all last start winners with big weight drops. The Thoroughbred Club has some very nice fillies lining up and giving Silmairillon (R2, #2) a mulligan for her last start, like her back to the 1200m and JMac is a plus. Would be wise to keep safe with Keepsake (R2, #12) having her first start with Zahra engaged. Reckon Zahra wins the Northwood Plume on A Little Deep (R3, #6) who is not out of her depth here and can turn the tables on her last start conqueror.
The fourth is also for the mares over a mile, a typically tough assignment for the punters. City of Lights (R4, #14) is drawn to get the right run and JMac on board can help! At longer odds Fire of Etna (R4, #11) might be worth a shekel each-way, Luke Currie is re-engaged and has never been unplaced on this girl in six rides. Jimmysstar (R5, #7) found his form last start, the short price is deserved and expect him to win the Weekend Hussler. A ticket into next week’s Caulfield Cup is up for grabs in the Herbert Power with a wide open field. Haaracaine (R6, #13) has saluted in his last four, this is a big step up but has won over the distance and N Ryan will have plans.
Race 7 – Might and Power Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
We don’t get the rematch of Mr Brightside (1) and Pride of Jenni so is this just a procession for him? The odds would suggest so, however he is yet to win over this distance so perhaps we should be looking for a better price. Expect the mares Deny Knowledge (6) and Jennilala (7) to set the tempo so it should be reasonable. No matter what the favourite has the ability to win no matter the pace here. Expect Atishu (5) to be the danger, has great form over 2000m, just some concern on the back up, if the track remains good Vow and Declare (2) will be finishing well as will Coco Sun (8).
Selections – 1-5-7-2
Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3YO SW)
This renewal of the stallion maker has a very similar feel to The Autumn Sun’s edition. A dominant favourite and hard to pick any to challenge. Despite the wide draw Broadsiding (1) is a clear top pick, the one concern being his first look at Caulfield. Have alway been impressed with Angel Capital (4) as well as Evaporate (3), they have both impressive and capable. Prefer Wanaruah (6) of the Waterhouse-Bott who gets a better run than Mayfair (5) and could be in it for a long way.
Selections – 1-4-3-6
The Schillaci splits the group one races with the second string of sprinters, that may be so but we have a very good competitive renewal here. Not much would surprise but like the prospects of Star Patrol (R9, #6) who is 3 from 6 fresh.
Race 10 – Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP)
An intriguing edition this year with only 3.5 kgs between the top and bottom weights and only a field of 13. Another Wil (4) has returned in fine fettle with two good wins at this track, maps well in the race, a deserved favourite. As stated often Roger James doesn’t come to these shores for a holiday – he brings his very good mare Orchestral (6) with him who is undefeated over this distance. Antino (3) has been chasing a couple of stars in recent races and gets his chance here and would have rated Craig (9) higher but gets a tough alley.
Selections – 4-6-3-9
Quaddie
With two theoretical “gimmes” to open proceedings getting a good return might be tough, however just getting a return will do. With a little trepidation we will go all in on Broadsiding and Brightside, wider in the sprint and trim down the last leg. For those game enough perhaps an extra dabble getting one of the shorties beaten, but will leave that for the thrill seekers.
Leg 1 – 1
Leg 2 – 1
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Leg 4 – 3, 4, 6
15 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 200% of the dividend
Go Jimmy Go,
Cheers, Sal
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OK day on the punt here – thanks to Linda at Hamilton. But re-invested in Caulfield quaddies which didn’t go well. Caulfield is tricky. But not for B. Shinn on the Queensland raider.