Almanac Horseracing: Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day – Saturday 14 February

 

Group 1 racing returns at Flemington tomorrow with the running of race 8 the weight for age Black Caviar Lightning Stakes over 1000m down the famed Flemington straight.

 

Baraqiel, and Mahroona have the best first up form and Baraqiel has the best form over 1000m, but hasn’t won down the straight, and for mine this Group 1 is stronger than the field he met in the Moir Stakes at The Valley last spring. My Gladiola also rates well on those measurements – first up form, straight track form and form over 1000m.

 

I’ve gone back and forwards with the form here and keep coming back to 1 Giga Kick. He’s six years old but going by his form last spring he seems to be back near his best and I really liked his recent jumpout at the Caulfield Heath when he went to the line with 7 My Gladiola. Yes, he had the rail, and she was wider around the bend and into the straight (and at catch weights was possibly carrying more weight), but he went to the line full of steam. He goes well first up, likes the straight and is usually around the mark over 1000m.

 

4 Tentyris will be hard to beat. He looked a star last spring and unfortunately didn’t get to run the VRC Champions Sprint on Champions Day to finish the Flemington Carnival. A race Giga Kick ended up winning. I just wonder whether Tentyris may be better suited at 1200m, even 1100m. He was very unlucky when beaten first up last time in over 1100m (off two jumpouts after a longer break) and was a class above his opposition at his two 1200m starts after that.

 

My Gladiola goes in for third. She’s a winner over 1000m (although it was her first race start), likes the straight and has trialled up well for this. Has had some sort of hoof issue but I’m sure she wouldn’t be running here if she weren’t 100%.

 

It’s another step up for 2 Baraqiel but his first up form and 1000m form sees him in the multiples.

 

What a race this sets up to be with my three on top selections drawn the three outside barriers in this race down the straight.

 

 

1 Giga Kick – 4 Tentyris – 7 My Gladiola – 2 Baraqiel

 

Best Bet: Flemington race 2 #6 Fiorenot – a stayer on the way up. Will appreciate the step up to 2000m and beat last weekend’s winner, Ambassadorial, last start. No reason he can’t win again.

 

Next Best: Flemington race 7 #5 Sabaj – barrier 1 here is a slight concern but if Beau Mertens can find some clear running in the straight, which I’m sure he’ll be looking for as soon as he can, he’ll be too good for them. Has residual fitness, has trialled up well for this and has good form first up. 1400m on the spacious Flemington track should suit him perfectly tomorrow.

 

Good punting.

Gamble Responsibly. Odds are you’re about to lose.

 

More from Dandy Andy can be read Here.

 

 

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