Almanac Footy: Wildcards and the Final Ten

 

Source: afl.com.au

 

Bowie sang about it in ‘Changes’ … “Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch Changes …”

 

Hundreds of other musicians have played with the theme

We are surrounded by it in our everyday lives, always have been

In our football world it reigns supreme

 

At each season’s start we are fixated on thoughts of how our clubs might change and, among other things, how the new rules will change the game. Bowie’s lyrics speak of  the compulsive nature of artistic reinvention. In a similar way, is one of the AFL’s latest rule/fixture changes yet another example of it being hooked on experimental panaceas?

With the 2026 AFL season now under way, let’s ponder the BIG change that will keep us talking all season long – the Wildcard Finals Round.

We now have a ‘final ten’. The finals will kick off with seven v ten; eight v nine. Good luck or bad; a place stolen or a chance to keep dreaming. Strangely, that will be the reality. It will be a three-tiered finals structure: 1 to 4 with a double chance; 5 and 6 safe from a boot from below, but still one loss away from a quick exit; 7 to 10 with one more game to prove their worth before the ‘real’ finals.

Why not embrace the change? As Bowie’s lyrics advise, “Turn and face the strange”.
Alternatively, why not make a case that it is just another grab by the AFL, the media and the sponsors for the almighty dollar?

Let’s examine the pros and cons of the change. The two Wildcard matches will: either confirm that the seventh and/or eighth placed ladder position holders are more deserving than the ninth and/or tenth; or on the other foot, allow one or both of the clubs that would previously have missed the September action to pull off a tap-on-the-shoulder moment. Even a stunning down-the-outside run to the finishing post is not out of the question. The late season trajectory of the Bulldogs in 2016 provides a hint of what could be achieved.

The Bulldogs provide another example relevant to our discussion.
In 2025 the Doggies finished in ninth position, with 14 wins and 9 losses, and had the third highest percentage (137). If the new finals system had been in place last season they would have met the Hawks in a Wildcard Final. The other WC Final would have seen the Suns pitted against the Swans for a chance to proceed. The Swans could have considered themselves mightily lucky to have that chance as they were three wins and a bucket load of percentage adrift of the Suns. In 2025, the big drop off started at ladder position 11, with Carlton’s 9:14 win loss ratio.

Now look deeper.

Season 2024 showed that end of season ladders vary markedly. Amazingly, you have to look down to position 15 to find the drop off that year. In 2023, the differential in wins was only two between the sixth placed and the 11th placed clubs.

Is it all about the drop off? No. It is more about the quality of teams placed just outside the eight. There have always been hard luck stories, often coming down to miniscule percentage differences or an unfortunate drawn game somewhere on the road to September. Cats fans wince at the 2 percentage points that cost them a place in the 2002 finals. Old Tigers fans may recall an unfortunate draw in round 8, against the Shinboners, that saw them fall short of the finals in 1966.

But you have to draw a line somewhere, don’t you? Why change? This is the crux of the issue. What is in it for footy fans and clubs? Forget the dollars and the TV rights, they are compelling factors to the AFL bosses no doubt, but surely it is more about the people who play and watch the game.

By changing to a Wildcard scenario, is the league simply rewarding mediocrity? Not according to AFL chief Andrew Dillon. The AFL boss argues, “it provides more games of consequence” and points out some teams that missed finals footy in recent seasons won more than 50 per cent of their matches.

And the stats back that argument up. In the last ten years there were only two occasions (2018, 2020) when the clubs finishing 9th and 10th were at least 4 points plus a significant percentage deficit below the 8th placed club. In 2020, the covid interrupted season, 10th placed GWS were a game and half below 8th placed Collingwood. In 2018 North Melbourne and Port Adelaide were both a game and more than 20 percentage points below 8th placed Geelong.

There is only one instance this century (excluding Essendon’s 2013 disqualification) when the 9th and 10th placed teams were both at least 8 points below the club holding onto 8th place (2012). Fremantle and North Melbourne would have been rightly aggrieved in 2012 had they been tipped out of their finals spot due to a Wildcard Final loss.

In 2016 the ladder after the final round saw 7th placed Bulldogs five wins ahead of 10th placed Port Adelaide. A Wildcard Final that year would have been potentially very unfair to the Doggies and akin to being gifted a winning lottery ticket for the Power. Opponents of the WC Final have an example to point to there.

Long-term history of who makes the ‘big dance’ confirms the value in finishing in the top four. However, in the recent past (2016, 2019 and 2021) one of the grand finalists came from below 4th place. It happens often enough proving that the top four finishers don’t have a monopoly on playing in the premiership decider.

Arguments supporting the change have merit. One is convenient – to fix the footy blackout caused by the introduction of the pre-finals bye. A ridiculous concept – it’s gone!

Other, more legitimate arguments, include the extra late season interest and excitement a Wildcard Finals Round would produce. The fight for positions 7 to 10 will be both exciting and nerve jangling. Percentage may be even more crucial. Will we see teams going for more attacking footy to maximise their percentage, thereby reducing the chances of being knocked-off by a 9th or 10th upstart? Both the AFL and footy fans would be happy to see that.

Another attraction of the change is the elimination of some ‘dead rubber’ matches late in the season. Apart from the jostling among the 7th to 10th teams, the clubs in positions below 10th may have a realistic chance of making the new cut, thus, it will put life into matches that previously were just ‘wallpaper’ (apart from the perspective of died-in-the-wool supporters of course). Tanking would be a thing of the past for  clubs with a chance of squeeezing into the final ten.

With the introduction of a 19th club in 2028 the finals system is bound to change. Adherence to the model of eight finalists out of 18, or soon 19, does not help the membership numbers of the lowly clubs and late season crowd numbers also suffer.
Take one example from 2025. In round 14, when they both had a chance of a finals berth, Essendon (10th) v Carlton (11th) drew 74 000 fans to the MCG. Come round 25 when finals had been long extinguished for both, they met in another night game at the ‘G and attendance was 41 000. Albeit round 14 was the Kings Birthday weekend and round 25 was a Thursday night game, the attendance differential was significant. When the chance of a finals berth slips away, the fans stay away.

On the flipside we have the inevitable pessimistic outlook, but the cynics do have a case worth arguing.  The finals competitiveness of teams who end the home and away season in 9th or 10th position is likely to be quite low. Even the 7th and 8th placed clubs can struggle from time to time in the heat of September footy. Look back at Elimination Finals results in 2017, 2019 and 2021. In 2021 Essendon were defeated by 49 points, in 2019 by 55, in 2017 by 65, while the Dogs were thrashed by GWS in 2019.

The diehards counter the spruikers of the change with easily spoken lines like: “it is just another money grab” and “its all about the TV rights”. They rest their case on the question: the VFL/AFL have gone from a final four, to five, to six, to eight and now ten – where will it end?

It is hard to accurately predict whether the Wildcard Finals will be little more than an exercise in rubber stamping the credentials of the 7th and 8th positioned clubs who will have home ground advantage in their matches against 9th and 10th. History will tell us soon enough. Regardless, the AFL’s coffers will fill. But so will the hearts and minds of supporters of the 9th and 10th placed clubs, and I suggest also the backers of clubs sitting on the lower rungs of the ladder weeks out from the finals. That has got to be good for the competition.

Will the finals drag out for too long? Five weeks is a long time in footy. Even now, I often scratch my head on grand final day to recall who actually played in the first week of the finals… and what was the result again? One group who will not be scratching their heads will be the mobile gambling app and fast food providers. They will be counting their extra revenue.

I must admit my initial reaction to the change was negative. Unsurprising! I’m one of Bowies “rock ‘n rollers” after all. After due consideration, I’m now far more optimistic. I think it will be good for the game, good for fans, good for players and all the people within footy clubs. I’m prepared to turn and face the change.

The chance to dream of September action, September success, let alone a premiership, is a huge drawcard in our sport. The Wildcard Final concept allows more of us to share in those dreams.

The debate also points to the urgent need to have a closer look at some of the other fixturing issues that impact the game. The season is too long. The fixture is very uneven. Opening Round is unfair to the clubs that don’t get a gig. The scheduling of games at the MCG favours the clubs based there. More can be added to that list of complaints.

Experimental or not; we await the jury’s verdict on the AFL’s BIG change in 2026 – the Wildcard Final Round.

 

As Bowie sang … “Ch-ch-changes, don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes, turn and face the strange”

 

Read more from Peter Clark HERE

 

To return to the www.footyalmanac.com.au  home page click HERE

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help keep things ticking over please consider making your own contribution.

Become an Almanac (annual) member –CLICK HERE