Almanac Footy – The Coaching Conundrum: Sack or Stick?

Greetings All,

 

Here is a pipe opener for the week.

 

An issue raised before has been the media hounding of coaches and their sniff of blood in the water.  AFL followers may have missed the following article from Darren Kane The ‘ritual scapegoating’ of coaches is rife in sport. Does it achieve anything?.  He specifically covers the NRL and the recent dismissal of Shane Flanagan from the Dragons.  He covers much more than the NRL and briefly the AFL.  Thought it was worthwhile to take a good look at the AFL clubs and how they stack up.  Kane does cover the successes of Geelong and Richmond with their persistence with Thompson and Hardwick respectively along with Brisbane where Chris Fagan has come in and helped turn the club around.  They were struggling to keep players when he arrived but he and the club have turned that around for them to be a destination club and the envy of the competition.

 

What about the other side though?  Unfortunately the Blues are the perfect case study.  Throughout history they have lived on the “messiah” principle, can be traced all the way back to Brighton Diggins who came from South Melbourne in 1938 with immediate success.  Following that Percy Bentley came from Richmond, Ron Barassi (Melbourne) and David Parkin (Hawthorn) all winning flags with the Blues – even Robert Walls came across from coaching at Fitzroy and saluted in 1987. 

 

However since 1999 it has been a revolving door, with a number removed mid-season and plenty mid-contract.  The two that standout with the Messiah Complex are the appointments of Dennis Pagan and Michael Malthouse.  Wayne Brittain was handed the reins in orderly fashion by David Parkin and took the Blues to finals in 2001.  2002 was disastrous winning only 3 games but cruelled by injuries all the way through, the coach lost his nerve through that time but suspect the rumblings from Big Jack throughout would not have helped.  Jack appointed Pagan as the Messiah and the next day the club was walloped with the draft penalties for salary cap breaches.  It is doubtful Brittain or Pagan would have seen success after that, but the club took on a short term view and seem to have done so ever since.

 

Then there was Brett Ratten as per the topic here probably should not have been successful taking over from Pagan during the 2007 season.  However relatively he was, reaching finals in 2009, 2010 and 2011.  2012 was tough, disrupted by injuries, they still finished with an 11-11 record but missing out on the finals.  Looming large though was an unemployed Premiership Coach in Mick Malthouse – the messiah was on the doorstep.  The faceless men could not resist the lure, they were singing the English Football Anthem “It’s Coming Home”.  Ratts was done, the Poms are yet to win another World Cup and who knows when Carlton will taste glory again.

 

While the media and plenty of Blues fans are baying for blood right now, they would do well to read Kane’s piece and play the long game.

 

Another case study is the Swans, who fell into playing the long game and mastered it ever since.  They were courting another when the noise became too loud and Rodney Eade resigned in June 2002.  Paul Roos was appointed interim coach and completed the rest of the season with a 6-4 record.  Terry Wallace had resigned from the Dogs to head north with a “mega-deal” ready.  A number of factors contributed to the deal not happening but the key reason was the success Roos had and his support from the membership base.  From there the club has not looked back winning their first premiership in 73 years under Roos, a smooth transition to John Longmire with another flag, then another smooth transition to Big Cox and a massive chance for another flag in 2026.

 

The Roos effect can also be seen at Melbourne where he anointed Simon Goodwin to be his successor early in his tenure.  Goodwin delivered the ultimate prize for the Demons in 2021.

 

While they have not delivered premierships we can see the benefits of clubs sticking the course with the progress of Nicks at Adelaide, Longmuir at Fremantle.  So where do all the clubs sit in this conundrum?

 

Adelaide – have stuck the course with Matthew Nicks showing continual improvement and one a key chance to go deep.

 

Brisbane – Enough said, everybody wants to play for Grandpa.  Fagan is not leaving anytime soon, but keeping the band together might be costly.

 

Carlton – Plenty said, many more issues than the coach, sacking Voss would not even provide the sugar hit many are looking for.  Graham Wright has played this game before.

 

Collingwood – ahhh that’s where he played the game and found Craig McRae an inspired appointment.  Their questions are not about the coach.

 

Essendon – Probably could have written as much about the Bombers as I did the Blues.  Plenty of faceless men working behind the scenes make it difficult to get a plan and stick to it.  Welsh seems to have shown enough leadership that might bring them into line.

 

Fremantle – Have played the long game well with Longmuir, despite several high profile commentators going after him.  Could bring premiership number one to the Purple Haze.

 

Geelong – a study in steadiness since backing Bomber Thompson.  Scott picked up the reins and has simply ploughed ahead, they get a few favours but you still have to make the most of them.

 

Gold Coast – Handy having the AFL get your coach, they need to see this out.  Might not get the ultimate result under Dimma but now resembles a footy club.

 

GWS –  They have their man and have backed him, only worry being if he were to be poached elsewhere.

 

Hawthorn – The transition from Clarko was never going to be smooth, but knew Mitchell was  their man and ensured they got him.  The strength and direction of leadership is vital.

 

Melbourne – Somewhat covered under the Roos-Goodwin discussion.  Lots of other reasons why change was needed.  Steven King has started in style, but plenty to do with some critical strategic choices made by the leadership and list management.

 

North Melbourne – Plenty of questions at the start of the year about sticking with Clarkson.  The results so far this year justify sticking to the course. 

 

Port Adelaide – Played the long game with Kenny, some say without success but Port were thereabouts most years of his tenure.  They have a history of sticking with their coaches, Josh Carr has been anointed and seems to have kicked off well.

 

Richmond – After the success of sticking with Dimma, it is all about strategy for the Tigers.  Not sure Yze will be their next premiership coach, but they believe plenty of the young talent will be a part of that premiership.

 

St Kilda – an interesting case study.  They have gone for the Messiah also in Ross Lyon.  Except Ross has not won a flag as coach and he jilted them to end his first stint at the club.  They have made a couple of other big bets and much of those will be dissected whether they succeed or fail.

 

West Coast – A study in steadiness with only 7 coaches over their 39 years and three of those having 10 year tenures.  Unsurprisingly, all flag winners, McQualter is probably in a similar situation to Yze.  Noting though the 12 year cycle is coming up in 2030.