Oz Footy List Manager now takes a look at Carlton.
List:
Carlton is a classic case of seeing a promising list in 2022 and thinking that it is ready for success. The club under-achieves for a year or two, but stocks up on expensive mature players, and delists its developing players. Suddenly, in 2024, it finds improvement, but then it has to jettison performing players because their contracts are expiring, while maintaining lesser performing players whose contracts are yet to expire. I couldn’t believe it when Carlton announced salary cap problems mid-season 2024, and it hadn’t even won a premiership.
Now, Carlton looks like an old list.
Why would you let go of Owies, a mature small forward, played 23 games in 2024, with a 1.5 goal average?
Why would you recruit a 32yo tall defender, who played 8 games last year, when you already have an overly tall defence? (And, he was GWS’s 7th best interceptor on average.)
Why do you have 4 key forwards all in the same age group – McKay, Curnow, De Koning & Silvagni?
Or, if you think De Koning is a first ruckman, why do you have a statistically better first ruckman in Pittonet who is about the same age?
And look at all that empty yellow in the developing 22-24 yo age range.
Carlton is at a crucial point, it either succeeds very soon, or it becomes a tipping point for a slide.
Failure in finals is usually due to a lack of intensity training leading up to September. However, increased intensity training with so many twilighters usually ends with injuries.
As for their juniors, Jagga Smith is a brilliant junior midfielder and can be played straight away.
The Camporeales are talented, but as defenders, they will need to find their feet in the VFL and gain experience before being elevated.
Select 22:
Carlton lines up tall, possibly overly tall, across the ground. Four tall defenders, four tall forwards, and two first ruckmen.
Good for the first half of the season, but when the rain hits in July of nearly every season, ………?
The team almost picks itself on the basis of last season’s improvement, but the loss of Owies and Marchbank creates opportunities.
Smith should walk into one of those forward running roles where he should be able to roam up the ground but also run back to defend his direct opponent’s rebound opportunities. Moir gets in on his 1-goal average, but based on 2 games only, and Motlop needs to improve on a 0.85 goal average, based on only 7 games, while young Cooper Lord looks like he might have something, based on stats of his 2 games last season.
Season 2025: Select 22
B: Saad, Weitering, Young
HB: Kemp, McGovern, Newman
C: Acres, Hewett, Cerra
HF: Smith (new), McKay, Moir
F: De Koning, Curnow, Motlop
R: Pittonet, Cripps, Walsh
I: E.Hollands, Boyd, Lord, O.Hollands
You can follow all the list updates here – https://www.ozfootylistmanager.com/2025-lists-new.html
To read more by Micky McTigger click HERE.
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It was 25 years ago that I began developing a model for analysing footy squad lists for the purpose of improving those lists into a premiership window. Since then, the model has been used to successfully predict premiership clubs and to improve either lop-sided or underdeveloped lists into premiership lists. Indeed, the model was used for an article that I had published as a double page spread in The Age 2005 Pre-Season magazine.
Over the 25 years, I have analysed the annual lists of one particular club but have used it for other clubs upon request. It has always been on my bucket list to display the lists of all the clubs, using the model, which I’ve done since 2021 on my website – OzFootyListManager.com
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