AFL Preliminary Finals – Preview: Is that rain I’m detecting?

Who wins the preliminary finals and why? Leave your thoughts here.

And, under grey skies, and sprinkles of rain, JTH has some thoughts of his own.

Read more.

About John Harms

JTH is a writer, publisher, speaker, historian. He is publisher and contributing editor of The Footy Almanac and He has written columns and features for numerous publications. His books include Confessions of a Thirteenth Man, Memoirs of a Mug Punter, Loose Men Everywhere, Play On, The Pearl: Steve Renouf's Story and Life As I Know It (with Michelle Payne). He appears (appeared?) on ABCTV's Offsiders. He can be contacted [email protected] He is married to The Handicapper and has three school-age kids - Theo, Anna, Evie. He might not be the worst putter in the world but he's in the worst four. His ambition was to lunch for Australia but it clashed with his other ambition - to shoot his age.


  1. Benny Vigona says

    Nice analysis. But as to a Geelong victory? one name keeps staring me in the face and my jowls drop. J. Hunt.
    Finals are about the strength of the 18-22. And he isn’t up to it.
    My head may drop come late tonight…but more likely his.

  2. Andrew Fithall says

    Hawthorn’s recent finals record is not that great, despite them making and then losing last year’s GF by just ten points. The week before they fell over the line against Adelaide by only 5 points. In 2011 they lost the prelim to Collingwood – a game they seemingly had in control. Even in their finals win over Collingwood in 2012, Cloke kicked 6. In the Adelaide game, Tippett and Walker kicked 4 each. Big forwards bother them. This is where Lake is going to such an important addition. And the recent poor form of Pods and Hawkins also plays in Hawks favour. I am looking forward to watching the game as an impartial observer, who likes it when my wife is happy.

    And go Freo!


  3. J Harms has mozzed the Cats by tipping them. BUT, R Walls has mozzed the Hawks by tipping them.

    Mozz and counter mozz. I hope the Walls mozz is greater.

  4. Cats will win because the Hawks have Buddy back. Think about it.

  5. Hawthorn
    It will be a draw, then the Hawks will win in extra time. The winning score will be kicked by S Mitchell on receiving a free down-field after an incident between the Pods and the Hodge.

    A smooth Pav will kick 3 in the last 1/4 in a game only remarkable for the lowest score ever to 3/4 time in good conditions. Swans to get thru the game without adding to their injury list.

    A sparkling Ross Lyon will be asking the AFL to move the GF to the new central oval at Pt. Augusta, a rough mid-point for the two clubs.

  6. They’re used to me mozzing them Dips. One thing to remember though, I’m not nearly the man Jeff Kennett is.

  7. As odd as this may sound, I’m barracking for ‘The Kennett Curse’… it’s good for football.

  8. So Litza that’s The Kennett Curse and the Richmond Football Club who are good for football. Mmmm? Know any film producers? #Omen4

  9. Heart says Cats, head says Hawks.
    My heart is bigger than my head & all the limited brainpower contained therein…

    Love the mythology around the “Kennett Curse”
    Supporters love it, commentators love it, TV executives love it.
    GO CATS !!

  10. Is that really Benny Vigona or Nathan Jarvis on the ruse….?????

  11. Neil Belford says
  12. “Kennett Curse” ends tonight, but maybe just by a hair. And, my wife having met and made instant friends this week with a Freo-supporting expat in a hobby shop a mile from my house in Indiana (!), I’m barracking purple tomorrow night. What a great weekend coming up.

  13. Just saw a news story from Melbourne with to blokes, one in a too-tight Cats jumper, the other in a similarly ill-fitting Hawks one, mugging over the premiership cup. A week too early (although I guess in Melbourne that might be an easy mistake to make).

    But it’s still The Curse of the Eddie. Both teams to lose tonight by less than a goal.

  14. Purple scum Everett. Doubt you’ll have to worry about being burdened by success. Carna Swannies.

  15. We’re a happy team at Hawthorn!

  16. Shattered.

    Summer job: working on bringing Travis and the Universe back together. If someone else can look after Travis, I’ll look after the Universe.

  17. Malcolm Ashwood says

    Glad to see you took the easy option Harmsy

  18. Bill Martino says

    For the neutral footy fan the best result tonight would be a Freo victory, which would make for a much more interesting GF than just a repeat of last year’s with an almost-certainly-different result.

    Anyway, the smug, sanctimonious, smartarse Sphinxters are out and that’s the main thing, isn’t it?

    Didn’t see much wrong with that article about Les. Especially liked the last line: “It’s going to be really interesting over the next few years if we do become powerful.”

    “… if we do become powerful.” Now that’s humble for ya!

  19. Well done Hawks.

    Caught the result just before boarding a plane.

    I knew it was bad when a bloke who looked like a Hawk said “They got through”.

  20. Pamela Sherpa says

    What a stunning , breathtaking game. Well done to both teams.
    Bad luck JTH . I was happy for a Hawks win as this week a relative and wonderful man , Michael Demaine, who played for Hawthorn in the 70’s died.
    At the rural cemetery of Patho (near Gunbower), in northern Victoria as friends and family gathered to farewell Michael a hawk hovered and soared throughout the service. Everyone present saw it as a great tribute to Michael who was an avid Hawks fan.

  21. daniel flesch says

    “And then there is the X Factor. The universe and Travis Varcoe are slightly out of sync at the moment. If somehow they come together Travis is going to explode. He has been in brilliant attacking positions in his last two matches – only to use the footy poorly. ” Most prescient , Nostraharmus , but i bet you wish you weren’t so spot-on.

    As for the Curse – Luke Hodge put it diplomatically . saying he hoped Kennett would hold his tongue. This member / supporter for 50+ years would put it this way : ” Jeff , shut up and eff off !” (If KRudd is an uber-narcissist , what’s Kennett then?”

  22. I am reminded of a Disraeli/Gladstone debate (sllghtly amended):
    Steve Bracks and Jeff Kennett were debating the State Disaster Relief bill. Someone raised if there was a difference between a disaster and a catastrophe.
    Mr Bracks said that a disaster would be if Mr Kennett was walking along the Yarra bank, fell in and couldn’t swim.
    A Catastrophe would be if Sam Mitchell jumped in to save him.

  23. daniel flesch says

    Not relevant to this thread , bur here goes anyway. Have yet to see media mention the G.F. will see the Hill brothers on opposing sides. Probably happened before e.g. Simon and Justin Madden (?) Any Almanacker know ?

  24. Selwoods played against each other in the 2011 Prelim Final.

  25. Alan Belcher (Essendon) V Vic Belcher (South Melbourne) in 1912 VFL GF. Maddens never met in a GF.

  26. daniel flesch says

    Yeah , Peter -B … i spoke too soon … just went to AFL website and it has all the details …this will be the first set of brothers in a G.F. since 1912. …As well as the Selwoods in 2011 Prelim ., in last year’s C’wood / Sydney Prelim. there was a Reid and a Shaw on each side. (I was going to look up the Maddens , but seeing it involved Carlton (ugh!) am leaving it to Litza.)

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