AFL Grand Final – Sal’s Preview: The Savannah or Domestic – Which felines will prevail?

 

Greetings All,

 

The season comes to a close with what promises to be a great contest, however before looking at the contest, how about a look at the state of the competition (or lack thereof).  The spin machine will be in overdrive covering all the record attendances and memberships there are a number of areas where the league needs to get its house in order.

 

• The chairmanship – Goyder is well past his time in the role.  There is animosity between the league and the clubs, that is not always bad as clubs are always acting in self-interest but the issue of nominating for the head honcho needs to be completed transparently rather than a boy’s club posting.
• The fixture – agree it might not be easy – but simply rule one is that all teams play each other once before any double ups.  There will still be anomalies but at least after 17 rounds we will get an even look at the ladder.
• Umpiring – have always been a supporter of the umpires, it is such a hard game to adjudicate but there are now so many rules requiring interpretation rather than being black and white.  In particular ‘push in the back’ and ‘insufficient intent’ – let’s make it easier to do the job.  And while we are at it, get rid of the bounce.
• Equalisation – the draft has many compromises and some of them like the father-son might appear quaint, however that is sacrosanct for many, including this scribe.  There is no issue with the northern academies either as they are doing so well promoting the game, however as the game grows perhaps there is some diminishing of access for the clubs.  The major issue around equalisation is free agency, it has simply been used by the top clubs to help maintain their status as we see a Brisbane and Geelong Grand Final.  It’s the club’s job to be the best they can be, however the league needs to find a way to balance this out.  Good luck to the Saints who have gone ‘chips in’ this year after stashing away salary cap funds for this rainy day.  The issue is they have had to pay overs for some of them to ensure they were not gazzumped, the warning being they tried similar not too many years ago but probably got the wrong personnel.
• Finals bye – the Tom Stewart situation has taken a couple of years to occur but was always likely to occur once the 12 day concussion protocols came in.  Get rid of the pre-finals bye and have a two week gap before the Grand Final.  Stop all the discussion about a ‘wildcard’ weekend – that will only give seventh and eight no chance of winning the flag.

 

One thing they do not have to fix is the Brownlow Medal.  The screaming media just need to accept and understand this is an umpire’s award and voted on from their perspective.  It then makes perfect sense that Jack Viney got three votes ahead of Wanganeen-Milera, he laid 16 tackles and 23 disposals all under their nose, his team dominated for three quarters.  Nick Daicos might have been the bridesmaid twice but Cripps and Rowell do all their work right under the umpire’s nose.  The bleating about it being a midfielder’s medal is also rubbish, how many of the coaches and players awards have gone to forwards or defenders.  The umpire’s rejection of the use of statistics is also pertinent – it then all comes from their perspective and what they see.  While the result might not always be what the media want – there are not many poor players among the honour roll.

 

Now for the game.

 

 

Danger Time (70%) vs In Need of a Gallop (30%)

After over 120 years Lions and Cats finally play off in the Big One.  They have been the dominant clubs of the century, the winner accounting for almost 25% of the premierships in the century.  (Please refer to points on equalisation.)  The path to this Grand Final for the two combatants could not be more different.  Geelong have had a smooth path for many weeks, resting and preparing their key weapons for the assault on the flag.  Virtually injury free in the lead up but copping a tough one last week with Tom Stewart ruled out with concussion.  The Lions fight to get a top four spot went to the penultimate game of the season and have had nothing but disruption to the team all year.  They go into this contest missing two of the best defenders in Payne and Ainswerth, a key forward in Hipwood, and Jarrod Berry missing from the midfield. Chris Fagan is justifiably proud of the efforts of his team this year.

 

But can they overcome those challenges to get over the Cats?  They were thoroughly outplayed and outcoached in the Qualifying Final.  What does history tell us?  There have been 11 instances where the Grand Final is a rematch of a Qualifying Final, on six of those occasions the result was reversed, most recently in 2015 with Hawthorn over West Coast.  It certainly gives the Lions some hope.  

 

Does Scott maintain the same match-ups or make some alterations? I suspect most will remain but he will certainly throw up some differences to try and gain an edge.  Neale has been no match for Andrews in their last two encounters – does he go with the Billy Frampton job on him and use Blicavs defensively?  He will be freed up to do so with Stanley back in the team.  Is Mullin a lock to go to McCluggage?  Suspect so but what will Hugh’s plan be to break the tag?  O’Connor is sure to go to Rayner again, but does Fagan push him more into the midfield?  

 

Then there are the questions on the other side and how do the Lions match up on Dangerfield, Smith and Cameron?  No doubt Dunkley will have the task on Paddy in the middle, who takes him when he goes forward?  Not sure how hard they will go after Smith and Fagan might just back his midfield to be good enough, and they are pretty good.  Then Jeremy looms large – he should have put the result beyond doubt by ¼ time 3 weeks ago before Gardiner got him under some sort of control.  He will need a repeat of that performance to give the Lions a chance.

 

At the other end Morris and Gallop really struggled against the Cats last time.  They have a couple of things in their favour this time.  First and foremost no Tom Stewart, the other factor is how much they have both matured since that game.  They did not dominate last week but they competed fiercely at every contest and the team reaped the rewards.

 

It will be in the middle that counts as always.  The Lions have gone chips in with Lachie Neale, history says this a dangerous move.  Sam Reid and Logan McDonald went into Grand Finals under injury clouds and quickly became non-entities as the Swans were belted in both games.  Reckon the Lions have rolled this die after losing Berry and they probably consider 80% of Lachie is better than 100% of Tunstil.  There is not just the injury to consider – he has very little match fitness under the belt.  Fortunately their midfield bats a lot deeper with the Ashcrofts, Hugh, Bailey and more.  Mind you the Cats have plenty plus their high half forwards who are so damaging and creative when they get the ball.  The Lions having two rucks might also give them an edge, but in reality the Cats don’t care about the rucks.  They have simply smashed the opposition in clearance in both finals and any repeat takes them a long way to winning.

 

Brisbane’s best is the best to watch and Geelong are not far off – expectations are that this should be a high-scoring encounter.  The Lions have played great footy to get here and are more than capable of winning, however just about everything has gone right for Geelong and the Jeremy Cameron sized challenge might be hard to contain.  Should be a great contest but expect the Cats to prevail by 17 points.

 

Track Time

With the Grand Final firmly taking centre stage on Saturday, the key Melbourne meeting heads to Friday Night Lights at the Valley.  The Manikato Stakes is the highlight with a crack field assembled.  Sandown hosts a Saturday meeting with some interesting runners while the 3YO compete for Group One glory in the Golden Rose in Sydney.  It is more of a watch and learn weekend rather than letting loose.

 

In fact, that will be the case for first three at the Valley, probably even the fourth where the 3YO compete in the Stutt Stakes where Vinrock (R4, #1) will be a short-priced commodity.  Keen to watch Highvol (R4, #3) stepping out to a more suitable distance.  The Sacrborough sees Esha (R5, #7) come back to her own age and sex and expect her to put in a good performance.  The Feehan only has a small field but plenty of quality with Tom Kitten (R6, #1), Pride of Jenni (R6, #5) and Treasure the Moment (R6, #6).  Jenni will set the tempo, not sure she can last against Tom and Treasure, and think the latter is a treasure and this will be a great launch point for her into the Cox Plate.

 

Race 7 – The ManikatoStakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)

Barrier 10 might present some challenges for JMac to get Lady Shenandoah (6) into the best spot, or does it just give us juicier odds?  Should be winning this with The Everest on the menu.  Biggest threats from Baraqeil (2) undefeated here and Skybird (8) who should be better 2nd up and also with The Everest on the menu.  Also like Magic Time (5) but the inside draw might be a challenge so putting in the Kiwi Alabama Lass (9) to fill the hole after chasing Baraqeil (2) last start.

Selections – 6-2-8-9

 

The Stocks Stakes closes out the evening where Oh Too Good (R8, #7) might just be that, but not discounting Splash Back (R8, #9) who ran home well last start.

 

Quaddie Time

Leg 1 – 2, 4, 7, 9

Leg 2 – 1, 6

Leg 3 – 2, 6, 8

Leg 4 – 7, 9

 

48 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 62.5% of the dividend.

 

A quick look at Sandown and Sydney, with some key runners to follow:

MR3 – #9 Street Artist – scratched from the Valley for this.

MR4 – #1 King Zephyr – should get back on the winners list and more to come.

MR7 – #1 Evaporate – his best wins but is he quite at his best?

MR6 – #11 Hard to Cross – Globe should set a good tempo and HTC should be closing hard under the claiming apprentice.

 

SR3 – #7 Juja Kibo – In great form and on a cups campaign.

SR7 – #6 Geringong – heads north after some sound efforts in Melbourne.

 

Race 8 – The Golden Rose (G1, 1400m, 3YO Set Weights)

Tempted (9) might be the best of a good lot of 3YO this season.  Think they are a good crop and the price for Autumn Boy (7) might be more appealing.  Wodeton (4) keeps on running well without saluting and Skyhook (3) last start was a horror movie and can improve.

Selections – 7-9-4-3

 

SR9 – #4 Rise at Dawn – Is he the Hayes team’s next star?

 

Have a great Grand Final Day and roll on 2026!

 

Go Blues!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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