Almanac Rugby League – NRL 2023, Round 1: Get your tips in!

 

 

Here we go again! After 24 minor round matches played over 27 weeks (three byes per team) and a four week finals series, Season 2023 will reach its climax with the Grand Final to be played on Sunday October 1. Throw in 3 State of Origin games in the traditional May-July period and the elite players of the code face an absolute marathon of a season.

 

Before we start to try to get a handle on it all, click here to get an overview of the draw, coaches and captains, and player movements since the end of last season.

 

To see the full draw for Season 2023 click here.

 

Round 1:

The Eels host the Storm to open the season tonight, and what a tantalising fixture this is to get us underway. Storm have not lost a season opener under the tutelage of Craig Bellamy, a remarkable statistic. Could this finally be a stumble at the first hurdle for the perennial contenders? The Eels were grand finalists last year while Melbourne has lost a host of its (albeit ageing) stalwarts and have Papenhuyzen on the long-term injured list. I think this is a bigger game for Parramatta than it is for Melbourne. A loss by the hosts would be a nasty psychological blow after their significant achievements in 2022 and will send shivers through their supporters. By comparison, it will be a bit of surprise if the Storm got up given their significant personnel changes, having to play away and facing a grand finalist from only five months ago. Perhaps Melbourne have the greater hurdles to overcome and so I’ll go with Parra.

 

The Warriors open their campaign at home against the Knights tomorrow evening. It’s hard to avoid the thought that both clubs are less than settled. The Warriors always seem to have sizeable player turnover from season to season; the Knights are battling to retain players and you wonder if all is well in Newcastle. The Knights look good up front with a pack built around the Saifiti brothers, and the addition of Jackson Hastings is a big plus. Lots of eyes will be on Ponga, assuming he slots in at No 6. Here’s his big chance to silence the critics by taking control. For all of his unquestioned talents, Shaun Johnson remains something of an enigma even after all of these years. He holds the key to the Warriors’ season. That worries me when so much depends on one player. With very little confidence I’ll back the Knights to start the season with a win.

 

The later game sees premiers Penrith up against the Broncos. While the Panthers have been weakened by the loss of the likes of Kikau and Koroisau, they still have greater depth than most clubs and stability in their spine. Brisbane are a work in progress for Kevin Walters and not yet at the level of the likes of the Panthers and the Roosters. Realistically, there is only one possible result here and the only question will be the margin. Panthers.

 

Talk about key games first up! The Sea Eagles v Bulldogs clash to start Saturday should be a cracker. Manly will be hoping to put the disappointments of 2022 behind them and get back up the ladder. The key is Turbo Tom, of course. If his treatment in the USA has been a success and he can be on the field for most of the season, then good times loom for the boys from Brookie; without Tom they’ll be thereabouts on the fringes of the eight. The Bulldogs were the up-and-comers of 2022 and now have Kikau and Mahoney to bolster their ranks. The Gould renaissance continues. Will we finally see Kyle Flanagan take charge? Can Tavita Pangai Junior master himself and be the force we all know he could be? Questions on both sides. It’s a bit of a risk to tip against Manly at home but I think the Bulldogs will assert themselves.

 

The Cowboys were one of the good stories of 2022 and I think they’ll get off to a good start this season when they meet what appears to be a most unsettled Canberra outfit in Townsville on Saturday evening. Stability v instability (on and off the field); a club on the ascendant v a club that may well be past its best; strong roster v a list that fails to convince; a coach with a confidence-boosting extension v a coach who needs results to be assured of his position. I just can’t see Canberra posing a threat to the Cowboys.

 

The night game is possibly the match of the round – the Sharks at home to the Rabbitohs. The Sharks took us all by surprise last year to give the competition a real shake, even if they were a bit exposed in the finals. The Rabbitohs are perhaps the most exciting team in the comp on their day. I expect them to be there on October 1, all things being equal. So a game to savour so early in the season. The Sharks have home ground advantage; the Bunnies have a great team who can blow a game apart in just a few minutes. For all that, it may well be a low-scoring game. My gut says South Sydney.

 

The Dolphins make their NRL debut on Sunday afternoon when they meet the Roosters in a game that will heavily feature the name of Arthur Beetson, a legend with strong links to both outfits. Expect lots of symbolism in that sense but, once the game gets underway, it will be the sound of cymbals crashing repeatedly as the Roosters take over to run away with the game. As a former resident of Redcliffe, my hope is that the Dolphins will not be disgraced as a debutant by having to take on such a high flyer in their very first match. I expect the Roosters to be top three this season, even if Angus Crichton has a belated start.

 

In the final game, Wests Tigers host the Titans at Leichhardt Oval. The hosts have been talking themselves up in the off season after acquiring the services of Api Koroisau, David Klemmer and Charlie Staines to join the Tim Sheens/Benji Marshall coached venture. That’s a good start but will it be enough to mount any kind of serious challenge in the competition? The Titans will be looking for big things from Kieran Foran and Sam Verrills to give support to their inspirational captain, Big Tino. And there’s the annual question – will this be the year David Fifita fulfils his potential? Two teams with high hopes but also lots of questions. I’ll stick with the Wests Tigers at home.

 

St George Illawarra Dragons have the first round bye – just as well because they’re in one hell of a mess on and off the paddock, even before the season has begun. Will Anthony Griffen be the first coach to be sacked this year?

 

So my winners for Round 1 are the Eels, Knights, Panthers, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Tigers.

 

My tips for the season:

the Top 8 (in alphabetical order): Bulldogs, Cowboys, Eels, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Roosters, Sharks, Storm;

Premiers: South Sydney;

Wooden Spoon: Dolphins;

Dally M: Nathan Cleary;

State of Origin: NSW 2-1.

 

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind:

 

State of Origin:

Put these dates in your diary now for what are likely to be the toughest contests of the season:

Game 1: 31st May at Adelaide Oval;

Game 2: 21st June at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane;

Game 3: 12th July at Stadium Australia, Sydney.

 

NRLW:

The NRLW expands to ten teams this year with the Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sutherland Sharks, North Queensland Cowboys and Wests Tigers added to last year’s teams the Brisbane Broncos, Gold Coast Titans, Newcastle Knights, Parramatta Eels, St George Illawarra Dragons and Sydney Roosters.

 

Current plans suggest a 9-week round robin season followed by a two-week finals campaign. To align with the NRL finals, it look like the NRLW season will kick off sometime in July

 

The women’s State of Origin series will expand to two matches but dates for those matches have not yet been announced.

 

To see the full draw for Season 2023 click here.

 

To return to our Footy Almanac home page click HERE.

 

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

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