Looking for a winner? – There is one in every race, they reckon.
Punters on course sometimes offer information about how they narrow down the field to one hope/chance. No two agree I would add, brothers choose different horses, or the same but from different angles. Most times they don’t, and don’t ask, bookmaker fiend!
Most punters do not use one aspect only when choosing their bets. It might be the price, today and last time with a (b), the distance with a (c) or a (d), track with a (C) or a (w), the barrier, the weight, jockey, no apprentice no way, girl jockey wasn’t a problem so much, the TAB number, the barrier in or the barrier outside, or just the barrier like before.
About the barrier thing. Is it an effect if they stand x metres apart, a mile from the finish, and around two turns? Yes, apparently. So they start in 2 and finish 11 wide in the straight, maybe. Track bias, dynamite rail, wet lanes, the wind left right ahead were all thought about back when. Some of them would affect a runner, the amount of effect could not be determined beforehand. Jockeys, trainers too, blame the barrier some times.
Fun with Numbers
Assume the subject horse ran 7th in a field of 24 at 7/1.
Calculate the SP % =100-( 100/7) =100 – 14.28 = 85.72
We are determining the merit of the subject horse here.
Calculate the finish position percentage (%) in the big scheme of things.
Use: 100-((7-1)/(24-1)*100) = 100-26.08 = 73.92%
It’s 7 – 1 (7 minus 1) because the runner finished 7th but this is 6 spaces back from the winner (who finished on 0(zero), not one(1!)
It’s 24-1 because the runner is in a race with 23 other runners (it + the rest)
We have two values, 85.72 & 73.92. Next, calculate the runner’s final value by doing an equation to determine 85.72% of 73.92, or, if you want to, 73.92% of 85.72%.
The sum is ((85.72/100)*(73.92/100))*100 = 63.36 – which is the value of a horse finishing 7th in a field of 24 at 7/1 (says me).
A horse finishing 4th at 1.14 =86.95/12.28 > 10.67 which is low but the equation rewards endeavor, a middle price runner finishing close up is rewarded with a middle product.
9 at 4.4 comes out as 50.39, 1 at 61 = 98.36, 5/11 = 75, etc
I don’t select off one facet (which this is).
This explanation is using the field size of 24 (23+ subject runner) – the values will vary if actual/correct field sizes are used, accuracy is important.
Sectional
It is possible to correct these for each runner, not just the winner.
Race Sectional 600 time = 34.11 – losing margin 1.4 length – horse length =2.75m*
So 1.4*2.75 = losing margin in metres = 3.85
Subtract 3.85 metres from section length (600-3.85)/34.11 = 17.47 metres second
2.75 metres may be a standard measurement used by industry, it was probably used to define the losing margin for this runner.
16.59/2.75 = 6.03 lengths/second.
Need the sectional time for this runner, do this 600/34.11 = 17.59.
17.59/17,47 = 1.0006 * 34.11 = 34.31 seconds modified sectional time for this runner.
Barriers
More winners occur if the horse runs from a barrier number less than its form race. Some races almost every runner is starting inside from where it started last time.
NOTE WELL: I have not seen any study of this factor.
Money
If the prizemoney total is divided by the summed total number of LOSING runs, and the result ranked, this is a stronger indicator than any other factor involving prizemoney.
NOTE WELL: I have not seen any study of this factor
Dippers
If a horse runs and does not dip its head when striding, this is an indicator of a runner who can ‘stretch out’ in the straight. It may finish faster is another explanation. As explained, the horse does not feel the bit and accelerates continuously/continually. They said it and I’m telling you.
NOTE WELL: I have not seen any study of this factor.
Lords Rule
Take the beaten distance in the form race, then multiply that by 16.5. Divide that value by the number of furlongs (200m segments) in the form race. The resulting figure is the amount of weight relief your runner needs in the upcoming race. Weight relief can be weight, or a barrier improvement expressed as weight, or a jockey improvement expressed as weight (how do you do that?), or a distance improvement (an increase) expressed as weight.
It was unlikely the calculated value for the subject runner would be at or below zero (a minus, or strong number). Zero the runner’s figures and choose your bets from the least scores. That’s what he did and he bet them too. The 16.5 is a myriad of corrections multiplied together to get that amount.
NOTE WELL: This was for hurdle and steeple and distance races.
Last 2,3,4 etc.
If the last finish positions are multiplied together, then that amount (product) divided by the biggest number used in the multiplication, that value has merit. It certainly has involvement.
Using 1,2,3,4 becomes 1*2*3*4 = 24. Divided by 4 = 24/4 = 6.Does it matter if those finishes are from an earlier preparation, no.
There is studious examination that proves this proposition, somewhat.
Last 2,3,4 etc if 9 is the number of runners in each form race
Using 1,2,3,4 = 9-1+9-2+9-3+9-4=26/32*100 – 81.25 because you are racing 8 others in the form race 4*8 =32.
No study of this factor is known – Care.
B3L4 place
More studious examinations (as above) show that if you add (sum) the best 3 margins of your runner’s last 4 margins and use the least sum, it will take you close to a dividend often.
More from Pestwac (Tony Moffat) can be read Here.
To return to our Footy Almanac home page click HERE.
Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.
Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help things keep ticking over please consider making your own contribution.
Become an Almanac (annual) member – click HERE.
Leave a Comment