2026 NRL – The Prospector’s Pickaxe: A retrospective Draft, Poms, Defectors and Zac.

 

 

Another interesting round of NRL is in the books. I sure Rex Mossop would have been ‘flabbergasted’ by the penalty try and the eight point try decisions and the Broncos comeback against the Storm, among others. Of course, there was another interesting 5 minutes with Wayne after the Souths victory over the Tigers, but enough of him for the time being.

The Pickaxe has been working hard this week, digging into the controversial topic of a possible NRL draft. The salary cap has done little to bring about equality in the game, and the draft is another option. A draft is not perfect by any means but may be more effective in helping struggling clubs climb the ladder than the salary cap. Today I will look at what rosters might look like today if we had a draft.

Drafts always become extremely complicated. In the AFL, they have ‘priority picks’ for long term struggling clubs, ‘father/son’ picks, and ‘Academy picks’. There is also the problem of clubs ‘tanking’, that is, deliberately trying to finish lower on the ladder to get better picks. Then there are players being traded for future draft picks. For example, the Melbourne Storm could have offered Parramatta draft picks for Zac Lomax rather than Ryan Matterson.  Importantly, clubs can also stuff it up. For example, Michael Jordan was selection No 3 in the 1984 NBA draft. Today, we will keep it simple. The wooden spooners get pick one, second last gets pick two and so on down to pick five. I will look only at the best five draft picks and the bottom 5 clubs. Here we go then.

Here are some assumptions before I begin. I am assuming clubs would prioritise spine players, particularly half backs, five eighths, and fullbacks when selecting. Secondly, it is just my opinion, I am sure you will disagree with my choices. I cannot guarantee that I have included everyone but have checked as thoroughly as I could. There are some strange selections in there too, Zac Lomax is there, so too are Joseph Aukuso Suaali’i’ and Herbie Farnworth. Joseph is a 2003 born player; Herbie played Under 20s for the Broncos, and Zac was one of the most highly rated young players in his year. I have started with players born in 1999 and gone through to players born in 2005, so it covers NRL years 2017 to 2023.

 

2017 NRL bottom 5, Born 1999

16 Newcastle No1 Pick, Payne Haas
15 Gold Coast, Luke Metcalf
14Wests Tigers, Tom Flegler
13Warriors, Zac Lomax
12 Souths, Herbie Farnworth

Other notables, Josh Curran, Chanel Harris Tevita, Campbell Graham, Brayden Trindall, Moeaki Fatuaika, Terrell May, Ronaldo Mulitalo.

 

2018 NRL bottom 5, Born 2000

16 Parramatta, Stephen Crichton
15 Manly, Tino Fa’asuameleaui
14 Gold Coast, Dylan Brown
13 Cowboys, David Fifita
12 Canterbury, Matt Burton

Other notables, Jayden Campbell, Tom Gilbert, Lindsay Smith, Jason Saab, Jordan Riki, Stefano Utoikamanu.

 

2019 NRL bottom 5, Born 2001

16 Gold Coast, Tom Dearden
15 St George, Bradman Best
14 Cowboys, Hamiso Tabuai Fidow
13 Warriors, Trent Loiero
12 Canterbury, Xavier Coates

Other notables, Max Plath, Heilum Luki

 

2020 NRL bottom 5, Born 2002

16 Broncos, Sam Walker
15 Canterbury, Reece Walsh
14 Cowboys, Kaeo Weekes
13 Manly, Selwyn Cobbo
12 St George, Jack Howarth

Other notables, Jahream Bula, Will Penisini, Tolutau Koula, Brendan Piakura, Xavier Willison, Tyrell Sloan, Sunia Turuva.

 

2021 NRL bottom 5, Born 2003

This is an interesting year, with only a handful of top players currently in the NRL. This is the age group most affected by the Covid situation.

16 Canterbury, Joseph Aukuso Sua ali’i.
15 Cowboys, Ezra Mam
14 Broncos, Sua Faalogo
13 West Tigers, Jeremiah Nanai
12 Warriors, Deine Mariner

Other notables, The Couchman twins (maybe with a buy one, get one free they could be top 5) Oryn Keeley.

 

2022 NRL bottom 5, Born 2004

16 Wests Tigers, Isaiya Katoa
15 Warriors, Ethan Strange
14 Newcastle, Keanu Kini
13 Gold Coast, Jye Gray
12 Bulldogs, Robert Toia

Other notables, Paul Alomoti, Ethan Sanders, Fletcher Sharp, Blake Mozer.

 

2023 NRL bottom 5, Born 2005

17 Wests Tigers, Lachlan Galvin (yes, MFBR, I know.)
16 St George, Blaze Talagi
15 Bulldogs, Leka Halasima
14 Gold Coast, Lehi Hopoate
13 Dolphins, Jaxon Purdue

 

Clubs without a top 5 draft pick during this period: Melbourne, Penrith, Roosters, Sharks and Raiders.

 

The clubs with the most picks: Bulldogs 6, Gold Coast, 5, West Tigers, Warriors, and the Cowboys 4. Next is St George with 3.

 

OK, let us see who ended up with where:

Bulldogs: Matt Burton, Xavier Coates, Reece Walsh, Joseph Aukuso Sua Alii, Robert Toia and Leka Halasema. A pretty handy backline right there.

Gold Coast: Luke Metcalf, Dylan Brown, Tommy Dearden, Jye Gray and Lehi Hopoate.

Wests Tigers: Tom Flegler, Jeremiah Nanai, Isaiya Katoa, Lachlan Galvin.

NZ Warriors: Zac Lomax, Trent Loiero, Deine Mariner, Ethan Strange.

NQ Cowboys: David Fifita, Hamiso Tabui Fidow, Ezra Mam, Kaeo Weekes.

St George: Bradman Best, Jack Howarth, Blaze Talagi.

Newcastle: Payne Haas, Keanu Kini.

Manly: Tino and Selwyn Cobbo.

Broncos: Sam Walker, Sua Faalogo.

Souths: Herbie Farnworth.

Parramatta: Stephen Crichton.

Dolphins: Jaxon Purdue.

 

Of course, it does not consider the current stocks of players at the club at the time. The Bulldogs would have a deadly backline, but their real need is starch in the forwards. The Gold Coast would improve dramatically with Dearden and Brown in the halves but what about Metcalf, Campbell, and Brimson? How would Zac Lomax go in NZ? A caller on talk back recently suggested they should rename Go Media Stadium as Compassionate Grounds Stadium due to the ever-growing list of players who have sought early releases from there – Walsh, Barnett, Dylan Walker and Fonua Blake come to mind. The Broncos would have Sam Walker, as they wanted to, before the Roosters swooped.  Payne Haas claims Newcastle as his hometown (or one of them) – he would have been happy to go there. Tom Dearden and Jye Gray are from the GC (yes, PBTS, I know Dearden is really from Mackay but was living on the GC).

What do you think? My test audience was scathing on my selections, particularly Walker at No 1 over Reece Walsh and ‘Critter’ Crichton over Tino at No 1. That is the beauty of the great game of Rugby League. If nothing else, it did prove to me that I would fail a spelling test of NRL players names. No doubt Melbourne would find plenty of gems at Picks 16 and 17 and keep winning; Gus will keep luring players to the Bulldogs; Nick Politis will continue to pull off recruiting coups; and players will always want to go and play with Wayne, wherever he may be.

Talk to you next week.

Enjoy the Rugby League.

 

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Comments

  1. Matthew O’Hanlon says

    Comprehensive report prospector. I guess that’s why we call you the prospect. You put forward a number of interesting ideas and it does give an understanding as to why we should have a draft. Of particular interest is the collections that the Bulldogs would’ve made but even though we all think of them is such a strong club they were in the doldrums from about 2017. Very interesting.

  2. Ian Hauser says

    Prospector, I love that line about ‘Compassionate Grounds Stadium’! Nevertheless, the Wahs are flying at the moment. The return of Metcalf can only be a boost – as long as he and Boyd can gel in the halves.

  3. The Man from Bremer River says

    As I am a firm believer that the NRL should have a draft system, your hypothetical makes great reading, Prospector. There are plenty of variables and differing opinions on draftee rankings, but the concept and your rationale does shed some light on what might have been. If Payne Haas had been drafted to Newcastle it would have probably been easier for Mr Politis and the Chooks to get him to Bondi those few years ago when he first wanted to change clubs. If the Titans could actually secure highly-regarded rookies being developed in their backyard, they would certainly be more of a force in the NRL.

  4. Prospector says

    Yes Matt, that was the surprise to me as well. You would have thought that would have been one competition the Titans or Tigers could have won, but they couldn’t even win that. yes Ian, that will be interesting. I don’t think anybody saw Boyd performing as he has, despite starring for them in the NSW cup finals last year. They will say it is a good headache to have, but i am not so sure. MFBR, the Titans know they are there but cannot sign them. If and when someone gets the Titans to win a comp, they should get a statue and a free penthouse in the new trump tower at Surfers.

  5. Titans Tom Tate Trump tower there has to be something in all that!

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