Greetings All,
We are back from the Adelaide adventure however a few remnants remain. First of all, the Findlayson saga – only a saga due to the manifestly inadequate punishment doled out to Alistair Clarkson for a comparable indiscretion. The AFL spin around differences in the cases is just that – SPIN! Reckon the penalty for Jeremy is just about right, with some grace for the immediate confession and contrition he showed. Supercoach showed no contrition ‘til his indiscretion became public – he had form; a fine and suspended was always too soft. The AFLPA quite rightly have requested a review of the process and the first thing that should happen is that the AFL come out and say they got the Clarkson stuff wrong.
Then we had the frantic finish of the Fremantle – Carlton game. Freo were justifiably upset that the umpires did not call touched for the ball kicked to Matt Cottrell, but the wailing for captain’s reviews and similar disruption to in-game processes is ridiculous. The game already has too many disruptions and reviews. The umpires miss frees, touched balls and out of bounds many times throughout a game – it’s a bloody hard job. The umpires don’t need to be further second guessed on every decision they make – or perhaps we go back to the original days of the game where the captains made very call?
Finally on Gather Round and Adelaide – reckon Greg Baum got it just about right https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/gather-round-more-like-blather-round-if-you-ask-me-20240408-p5fi89.html. The objective of Gather Round is to grow the code, sending it to a State already addicted to the product does not provide any growth apart to the SA and AFL economies. For all that, looking forward to being there in 2025.
We had all the favourites get up last week and all games this week appear lopsided, however reckon we will be in for a couple of upsets just not sure which ones.
Taking Care of Business (80%) vs Neale in his Presence (20%)
The Demons had a couple of great results in Adelaide, though they lose The Recidivist with another suspension. All the talk from Goodwin about Pickett adapting the way he plays is crap, if Melbourne really want him to change then they should not have challenged what was a clear offence. The media just lap it up from Simon instead of challenging him. They host the Lions whose prime mover in Lachy Neale plays his 250th game. As clean as anyone in tight situations and right under the umpire’s nose, no wonder he has a couple of Brownlows. He will need a lot more support from the other Brisbane midfielders in this one against the likes of Petracca, Oliver and Viney. Their big forwards got a bit of it last week against the Roos – May, Lever and McDonald are a different proposition. Then there is the MCG Bogeyman for the Lions who have won only 5 games at the venue since the 2004 Preliminary Final. They had the Demons on toast in Round 18 last year and let them off the hook. The best of the Lions could win, but so many more things in the Demons favour despite losing The Recidivist.
Catnapped (83%) vs Edged Out (17%)
The Dogs succumbed to the sly Cats again, they have the edge over the Bombers whom they have reigned over 9 times in their last 10 encounters. The Essendon midfield copped a caning from the Port, the Dogs can inflict similar pain with Libba and Bont. Expect Essendon to be more competitive but they have picked up more injuries and just think the Dogs have too many weapons.
Ogres (88%) vs Men of Steele (12%)
The Giants are imposing themselves large on the competition not only winning but averaging 115 points per game. The Saints will certainly test their potency allowing only 72 points against per game so far. Led by Jack Steele they wore down the Tigers last week, the Giants are a different issue. Buckley, Taylor and their crew have been almost as miserly, and they rebound as well as any other team so suspect they will extend their unbeaten run.
The Cotting Edge (91%) vs Charddy Sippers (9%)
The Blues survived another close one with more than a bit of good fortune thrown in. On the plus side they are getting in positions to win the close ones, on the other hand every team must give themselves a chance against them. The Crows will certainly feel that way as convincing winners over the Blues in their last two encounters, they were both in Adelaide, the Blues will be pleased this is in the Loungeroom. The Crows recent road record is poor so plenty would need to go right to cause the upset. Not impossible but expect the Blues to be too strong.
Daylight Saving (93%) vs Ginnivan Begin again (7%)
The Suns have been setting early, in their four games the opposition have outscored them 103 to 53 in the last quarter, which gives the Hawks plenty of hope here after they nearly stole it from the Pies last week. While the Suns were blown away late last week, they were terrific with such a young team, their prospects look great if they can keep the likes of Casboult, Atkins and Ellis out of the team. The Hawks are relying a bit more on the tried brigade with Ginnivan providing plenty of spark and smarts on the forward line. Suspect the Suns will be too far ahead at ¾ time.
Pep in Their Step (88%) vs Cry Purple (12%)
While the western back pages are still crying foul after last week, at least the Dockers stayed in Adelaide to prepare for their meeting with Port Adelaide. Should be a beauty, Freo did so many things right last week except hurt on the scoreboard. Somehow they need to have their midfield power give more looks at goal. That midfield is up against what looked like the Rolls Royce last week with Rozee, Butters and Horne-Francis cutting the Bombers apart. As good as they all were there was minimal opposition to contend with. Freo still have plenty of the Lyon DNA and will make life much tougher. Importantly they also have Nat Fyffe back in the midfield providing a bit more size and grunt. Port at home are a tough nut to crack, Powell-Pepper back to provides even more energy, but reckon Freo as a team will be ready to take it up to them and might just get the chocolates.
Dog Catchers (99%) vs The X Factor (1%)
The Cats kept their dominance over the Dogs going last week and will continue theirs over the Roos this week. They are building from the midfield out with Tristan Xerri giving them a great contest in the ruck.
Harley (13%) vs Dusty (87%)
We got more than a glimpse of Harley Reid’s presence last week and why he features in the Western headlines so frequently, his potential match up with Dustin Martin is an exciting prospect. The Eagles were good last week against a top side, back home they must rate a real chance against the Tigers. Just think the likes of Martin, Vlastuin, Baker and the mercurial Bolton will have too much experience and will control the game.
Track Time
We are entering the twilight zone for the racing season in Victoria with the main metro meetings going regional for the next couple of weeks. It is Bendigo’s turn this week with generally big fields and open betting races. Randwick has Day 2 of The Championships headlined by the Queen Elizabeth.
Bendigo
A really tough program where just a couple of winners would be a good result but where are they? Divus Romulus (R1, #14) is a short favourite in a big field, is it a case of ‘the bigger the field, the greater the certainty’? Prefer to take the longer odds with Nishino Crescent (R1, #13) each way. We do have a genuine shorty in the next Bold Bastille (R2, #4) will be too short to invest on but should win comfortably. Mansiere (R3, #15) is a winner here was pretty good down the straight a few weeks back, another tough one. Class might prevail for Sunsource (R4, #13) coming here 2nd up, very wary of Goldenststewarrior (R4, #11) making his Australian debut for Ciaran Maher. The next might be a watch and learn with the return of Skybird (R5, #1), also keen to see Celui (R5, #3) who is unbeaten here. Garza Blanca (R6, #7) looks well placed and is undefeated 2nd up.
The Quaddie is just plain tough, the job will be to stay in it for as long as possible. A quality mares race kicks it off with top pick being Sirileo Miss (R7, #1) coming back after a year off is the class in the race. Will be plenty more in the opening leg. Hopefully get a bit more than Sunshineinmypocket (R8, #1) if it can win its fourth on the trot. The main feature the Golden Mile could be renamed the Golden Raffle with $7 the field and the favourite not assured of a run! Foxy Frida (R9, #3) comes off a handy performance in a Group One, should be a good chance here. Hoping Extratwo (R10, #15) can extend her winning streak to get us home.
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 5, 8, 12
Leg 3 – 3, 4, 13, 16, 17
Leg 4 – 10, 15
300 Combinations, $30 investment returns 10% of the dividend.
Randwick
Race 6 – Australian Oaks (G1, 2400m, 3YO Fillies SW)
Orchestral (1) dominates the market and looks a star. Reckon the places are filled by Autumn Angel (5) and Zardozi (3) with the other filles from across the ditch chasing them home in Quintessa (2).
Selections – 1-5-3-2
Race 7 – Sydney Cup (G1, 3200m, HCP)
Fourth in a Melbourne Cup is good enough form for the Sydney Cup so putting Ashrun (3) on top, but with plenty of respect for the stablemate Circle of Fire (12) coming off a great win in the leadup race. Plenty of respect for Manzoice (11) whose form is peaking for this and Kalapour (7) must be some hope after winning the Tancred.
Selections – 3-12-11-7
Race 8 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
A ripping renewal of the race with the import Via Sistina (8) having to chase down the pride of Australia Pride of Jenni (7) with a couple of perennial performers in Mr Brightside (1) and Australian Cup winner Cascadian (2) to keep them honest. The known factor is that Jenni will set a cracking pace, so far in her career she has not been able to hold on over 2000m. Would love the fairytale but probably get rundown late again. The value bet is that Cascadian (2) does it again – no question on the journey and loves the pace on. No question on the distance either for Via Sistina (8) and might just be too classy for them all but would want a better price. Mr Brightside (1) has always been in the quinella here but the 2000m remains a question.
Selections – 2-8-7-1
Race 9 – Queen of the Turf (G1, 1600m, Fillies and Mares WFA)
CJW has chosen this race over Lizzie for Atishu (1) where she would have been competitive, so expect her to be right in this. She will have to beat JMac on another Waller runner in Zougotcha (2) reckon they might fight it out. They will need to get past Tropical Squall (14) while Mick Kent takes an interesting throw at the stumps with the progressive Eternal Flame (7).
Selections – 1-2-14-7
Plus the Ammos are back with the Mighty Friars hosting St Mary’s Salesian in both the Men’s and Women’s matches and the 3rds taking on Parkside after going down to West Brunswick in the opener.
Go Blues, Go Friars, Go Jenni
Cheers, Sal
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