Almanac Rugby League – 2022 State of Origin, Game I Preview: A return to unpredictability

 

 

 

The lead-up to any State of Origin series is full of anticipation. Often there are sayings along the lines of “this is set to be the most hotly contested Origin series for x-number of years” or “we could be in for a real treat”. For me, as a parochial Queenslander and an evenly balanced State of Origin book writer (sound contradictory? It’s called compartmentalising), I’m always fascinated by the tiny margin for error in Origin football. I know I’ve harped on about this before, but more often than not, the difference between winning and losing is less than paper-thin if such a thing is possible.

 

I also find it impossible to make predictions before an Origin series starts, although last year was an exception. With the Maroons in all sorts of trouble with injuries and out-of-form players, I said before Game 1 of 2021: “I think the Maroons are shot to hell.” I’m no clairvoyant but I thought this was a David and Goliath sort of mismatch, with an inevitable result. As for the fine line between winning and losing, it was only very briefly apparent. The first 15-odd minutes of Game 1 were evenly contested, and then one stupid penalty led to NSW’s first try. The floodgates opened, and the rest of the game was one-way traffic as the Blues prevailed 50-6. I’d hoped the margin would not be so big, but my worst fears had come true. Then in Game 2, Queensland was in contention until an intercept (something else which I tend to harp on about because an intercept can irrevocably change a game) gave NSW a 12-0 lead. The series was over to all intents and purposes. After NSW’s 26-0 win, I belatedly said what I’d thought in the lead-up to the series: “Queensland were never ever a chance of winning this (2021) series.” Yet, with NSW missing its first-choice five-eighth and halfback for Game 3 while Queensland’s team was somewhat strengthened, the Maroons recorded a two-point win. After Game 2 of 2021, part of me wondered if a NSW dynasty was likely. With Game 3, I was reminded that the wheel can turn at any time. Not that the Game 3 result masked the previous two results.

 

Which brings us to this year’s series. Unlike last year, I don’t have any sense that the series winner is a foregone conclusion. In other words, I’ve reverted to my usual thought that “it’s impossible to make predictions”. Certainly, I would be most disappointed if Game 1 this year unfolds similarly to Game 1 from last year. Should that happen, I would say “I didn’t see it coming”. Also, unlike last year, the Broncos and Cowboys are winning regularly this year. Yet I cannot overlook the fact that three of the best Broncos players this year are New South Welshmen – Adam Reynolds, Payne Haas and Kotoni Staggs – with the latter two to line up for the Blues.

 

As usual, selectors from both states have stuck with many players who have been in a number of Origin series, while the selectors also reshuffle the team and introduce some new blood. The NSW team certainly looks different from usual without Josh Addo-Carr, Jake Trbojevic and injured trio Tom Trbojevic, Latrell Mitchell and Dale Finucane. You know the Blues have plenty of depth when no room can be found for past winners and seasoned campaigners such as Addo-Carr and Jake Trbojevic! Yet the team is still formidable with classy backs such as James Tedesco, Brian To’o, and the halves pairing of Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary. NSW’s forward pack also looks strong with Haas and Junior Paulo in the front-row, Damien Cook at hooker, Cameron Murray and Tariq Sims in the second-row, and Isaiah Yeo at lock. The bench also has a formidable look about it, with Stephen Crichton and Liam Martin perhaps unlucky not to be in the starting 13.

 

As for Queensland’s backs, one big question mark is over debutant winger Selwyn Cobbo. This youngster has been in scintillating form for the Broncos, but has he been thrown into the lion’s den too soon? Will he handle the pressure? With Kalyn Ponga at fullback, two experienced campaigners in the midfield (Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai) and another two seasoned campaigners in the halves (Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans), Queensland’s backline compares favourably with NSW’s, on paper at least. But can Queensland’s forward pack match it with NSW’s forwards? It will certainly be an acid test for Cowboys lock Reuben Cotter on debut. Josh Papalii and Felise Kaufusi have been around for a while, and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Kurt Capewell also played in Queensland’s series win in 2020. The use of Ben Hunt and Harry Grant will need attention, as both players have offered patches of brilliance yet need to be managed carefully in order to be effective. Queensland’s interchange bench certainly looks stronger than last year due to the inclusion of Lindsay Collins, who had a blinder in the 2020 decider.

 

Simple things like reducing mistakes will also be a decisive factor, in addition to capitalising on the other team’s mistakes. In the coaching department, NSW holds an edge due to Brad Fittler entering his fifth year in charge (with three series wins under his belt), following his many years of experience as a player. In his first year as an Origin coach, Billy Slater has a wealth of assistants with Origin experience, but whether Slater and co. can make the transition from successful player to successful coach remains a big unknown. It’s another one of those things that can’t be predicted!

 

One thing I am certain of is that it will be a fine achievement for Queensland to win Game 1 on Sydney soil with a rookie coach and a reshuffled team following last year’s (predictable) series defeat. History shows that the team which wins Game 1 goes on to win the series far more often than not. Yet a closer look at history reveals that coming from 1-0 down to win a series has been more frequent since 2005 than in the years from 1982 to 2004. In fact, it happened only three times in 23 years, and then happened three times in the next four years.

 

Regardless, whichever team wins this Wednesday night will be in the best position to win the series, with Game 2 at a neutral venue (Perth) and Game 3 in Brisbane. The Blues deserve favouritism for Game 1, and it will be no surprise to see them win. But if history is anything to go by (apart from last year), it should be no surprise to see the underdog Maroons prevail, either.

 

Which will it be?

 

We’ll soon find out.

 

 

 

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Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

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