The numbers are in.
Cold, hard numbers that do not lie.
Port Adelaide and Geelong are the only teams to finish the Home & Away inside the Statistical Premiership Window (Hawks and Dockers are sitting on the sill, looking in). Port Adelaide are best placed statistically and are therefore destined to become the first team to win the flag from outside the top four under the current top 8 system1.
I am staking all on my Statistical Premiership Window system.
When I last checked they were paying $26 for the Premiership. Get on board now (forget the Tiger Train)2
THE CASE FOR
I simply demonstrate with three charts:
2014 TOP 8 PREMIERSHIP WINDOW CHART
Here are the winners since 2007:
AFL PREMIERSHIP WINNERS, 2007 TO 2013
Here is how the runners-up faired relative to the window:
AFL RUNNERS-UP, 2007 TO 2013
From the last seven premierships, only Geelong in 2007 won the flag from a position well outside of the Statistical Premiership Window. However, in that year, no team finished inside the window and the Cats were situated on the positive side of the window and clearly best placed to win the flag.
Why not the Cats to win their fourth in eight years? No team that has finished outside the top four in the Premiership Window Index (since 2007) has made it to the Grand Final. In 2014, the Cats finished with a PWI rank of 5.
The Premiership Window Index Rankings of Finalists
| Year | Team | Ladder | PWI Rank | Year | Team | Ladder | PWI Rank |
| 2007 | Geelong | 1 | 1 | 2011 | Geelong | 2 | 2 |
| Port Adelaide | 2 | 4 | Collingwood | 1 | 1 | ||
| 2008 | Hawthorn | 2 | 2 | 2012 | Sydney | 3 | 2 |
| Geelong | 1 | 1 | Hawthorn | 1 | 1 | ||
| 2009 | Geelong | 2 | 3 | 2013 | Hawthorn | 1 | 1 |
| St Kilda | 1 | 1 | Fremantle | 3 | 2 | ||
| 2010 | Collingwood | 1 | 2 | 2014 | Port Adelaide | 5 | 4 |
| St Kilda | 3 | 4 | Sydney | 1 | 1 |
The table shows my tip for who will play off in the big game this year3.
THE CASE AGAINST
Looking at the results of my Statistical Premiership Window theory that I have been industriously building over the last 12 months the real heading of this piece4 should be “The results of this analysis is enough to drive one to drink and ruin”
- Port Adelaide will need to win two interstate finals to reach the grand final, something not yet achieved under the current final 8 system. No team outside the top four has made it to the grand final.
- In four of the last seven grand finals, the teams that made it there finished first and second on the ladder and also were ranked top two for the PWI.
- In two of the remaining three grand finals, the teams were ranked in the top two for the PWI.
- In only one of the last seven grand finals did a team make it that wasn’t in the top two on the ladder and ranked in the top two for the PWI. That was St Kilda in 2010.
Based on the above, the most likely teams to play in this year’s grand final are Sydney and Hawthorn as they finished top two on the ladder and are ranked top two for the PWI.
Or perhaps it will be the Cats, who finished the ladder third, are just inside the window, and be the first team to sneak through with a PWI ranking of 5 into the grand final5.
So in other words, after 12 months of painstaking data collection, I have no f*@#ing idea!
Don’t you just love footy!6
1. I have just put the mozz on Port Adelaide. They will not even beat the Tigers.
2. In no way does this constitute financial advice.
3. By now you will realize that I am writing this half-drunk.
4. The actual heading is just click bait.
5. Actually the Cats are better placed than Port to be the Statistical Premiership Window winning team, but picking them is just a little boring and enabling to all the Catters at the Knackery.
6. F*@# the data – let’s just have a few beers and enjoy the game.
More footy yarns HERE
John Harms on why Richmond are good for football.
Damien, this is the nicest thing that has happened to me today.
I tried hard – but ultimately it is the Cats who are best placed to win under my theory. However, see footnote 1 (same theory applies).
I notice Essendon aren’t even in the right quadrant to begin with, which gives merit to The Wrap’s eight-point system where the Bombers came in tenth.
I’d like to say that The Window never lies, but I suspect this year it will.
Do you have any data on them when they are wearing the prison bars?
Hi Skip – early finals exit for the Bombers!
Dave – I don’t – but it should really place them top right corner of the window.
Damien- I think I prefer my initial misreading of the title
Port to win flag from filth.
But this could just be cross-town rivalry speaking.
Good stuff.
Thanks for the mozz. Hopefully this will get up and running with the rest of the football industry and Pow go in to the Tiges game distracted. Perhaps rest Boak, Ebert and Wingard for the more important finals.
Hi Mickey – given your alliance understandable.
Hi Chris – no doubt Ken from Camperdown has noted this and is now taking it easy.
Love your work Damian.
Can you just explain why the ‘window’ has a roof. I understand that your concept is about teams have a balance of attack and defence, and I find it intuitively persuasive.
But isn’t it a matter of meeting BOTH attacking and defensive minimum standards.
Without a roof the 2007 Cats are not punished for being attacking overachievers when they met the defensive criteria.
Without a roof the Swans are not penalised for being outstanding defensively or the Hawks for outstanding attack this season.
It gives us 4 serious contenders this year, with the Dockers having improved offensively but declined defensively this season, and still not meeting the minimum offensive criteria.
Suits me just fine.
The window says Hawks, Swans, Port and Kangas this weekend – and it looks like a good multi to me.
Week 2 the Cats beat the Kangas and Port beat the Dockers. Perfect.
Time to hit the roof DJL?
Hi Peter – you are right. The window could extend up and to the right to fill in the top right part of the chart. However, it would not make the third chart (the losers) look so nice as the window defining the difference between the winners and losers. Hence the area of the window has been historically defined and of course is now proving troublesome moving forward, given that many of us will expect a Swans v Hawks final.
Although I must say that the I do find it interesting that the Cats in ’08, Pies in ’10 and Hawks in ’12 – all teams favoured to win – could not do it, while those that did win were in the window. When I created this, I thought I would find it impossible to lump winner into one space excluding losers – but there it was. Cats, Power anyone? Anyone?
Would Richmond get closer to the window if you just took the last say 11-12 games?
You could almost say that they have had a season of 2 halves that have contrasted completely.
The first half team does not seem anything like the second…
Hi Adrian
If we look at the last 11 games – surprisingly Richmond don’t fair that much better, same offensive ratio but with an improved defensive ratio and a PWI ranking of 8. Just over the 9 game winning stretch, they improve a lot more sitting just on the edge of the window and a PWI ranking of 2.
DJL,
Love reading your stuff.
If only footy could be this “easy” to predict !
Cheers
Smokie
I came to the same conclusion using Tarot cards. It was quicker, easier and just as accurate.
I showed this to a mate who has just backed Geelong to win the flag at $7.00. He promptly doubled his bet. No pressure DJ.
Thanks Smokie
Hi Dan, spreadsheets are fun! (says the guy without a social life) – but you are right – plenty of easier ways to come to this conclusion – next year my dog will be tipping the winners.
Hi Dips – I feel the need to have skin in the game too. Should I pull this off, my joy will be almost equal to that of Carlton winning the flag.
Still alive
might be right. A North v Port gf would be gold.
Not there yet – but still on track for my Swans v Port GF prediction.