Almanac Footy: The 20th Team

Introduction

With all the pomp and ceremony of a Hollywood red carpet event AFL Tasmania this week released its teams name, mascot, and jumper. It was about 10 months ago that the AFL, like a benevolent monarch, decreed Tasmania worthy of their 19th license, and is slated to enter the competition in 2028, provided Jacqui Lambie, Rebecca White and other dim-witted anti-Stadium troglodytes don’t mess it up. When announced last year by AFL CEO, Gillon McLachlan, he indicated that the league would strive to achieve an even number of teams in the competition. Consequently, there are three options to be considered; either one of the existing 18 teams would be given the boot, two of the existing 18 teams would merge to form a single club, or a 20th team would be added to the league.

However, giving an existing club the boot may sound easy but in reality would prove difficult for the AFL, considering that the league has invested millions of dollars to support the Gold Coast Suns and Greater Western Sydney Giants in development zones, with the aim of increasing TV ratings and broadcasting rights. Furthermore, after the fiasco which ensued with the attempted mergers of Fitzroy and Footscray in 1989, and Hawthorn and Melbourne in 1996, history has shown that attempts to merge clubs is met with fierce opposition from supporters and administrators alike.

Thus, it is highly probable that the AFL would opt to establish a new team to expand the competition to 20 teams. The question then arises as to the location and identity of this 20th franchise.

Discussion

The professional football landscape in Australia comprises four distinct codes: Australian Football (AFL), Rugby League (League), Rugby Union (Union), and Association Football (Soccer). Geographically, the popularity of these codes varies across the country, with AFL being the preferred choice in the southern and western regions, while the northern and eastern regions tend to favour the two rugby codes. Soccer, on the other hand, is the second most widely followed code across most parts of the nation and boasts the highest participation rate of all four codes.

In 1978, Ian Turner, an academic and historian, introduced the term “Barassi Line” to define the geographical boundary that separates regions where AFL and League are the predominant football codes. The Barassi Line is approximately a demarcation that extends from the point where the New South Wales/Victoria border meets the Pacific Ocean to the junction of the Northern Territory/Queensland border and the Gulf of Carpentaria. This proposition is supported by internet search data obtained from Google Trends.

 

Despite efforts by both codes to expand their reach beyond the Barassi Line, significant challenges have arisen, including the costly support of teams that have struggled both financially and on the field. Former CEO Ross Oakley once stated his specific criteria for determining the viability of new franchises based on their location in relation to the Barassi Line. For locations situated southwest of the Barassi Line, he stated a minimum urban population of 500,000 is required, as well as an established supporter base if there is an existing franchise in the area. On the other hand, for locations located northeast of the Barassi Line, a minimum urban population of 1.5 to 2 million and a treasure trove in lifeline funds for a period of 20 to 25 years are necessary to maintain a new franchise.

The proposed 20^th AFL teams include a third team in Perth, a third team in Adelaide, Darwin, Canberra, Newcastle, Sunshine Coast and Cairns. There have also been some other off the wall ideas in the past, such as another regional Victorian team, a New Zealand team and there was once even a proposal for a California based team, but let’s stay away from la-la land and stick to reality.

 

 

Analysis of Previous New Franchises/Relocations

To gain a deeper understanding of the challenges faced by a new franchise, it is important to analyse the experiences of previous new franchises.

Sydney – In 1982, the South Melbourne Swans relocated to Sydney, a region traditionally known for its passion for rugby. Although fitting the criteria of being in a city of over two million people, within ten years they were on the brink of receivership and started to closely resemble a drunken tightrope walker. The AFL was forced to step in and provide a financial lifeline. The Swans required substantial investments, including draft picks and salary cap concessions, Ron Barassi, as well as several million dollars. Lastly, the AFL even threw in Tony Lockett to get the franchise up and ticking. Overall, it took over 15 years for the Swans to finally become viable.

West Coast – In 1987, the AFL introduced two new clubs, West Coast and Brisbane. Being established in AFL heartland, West Coast were expected to prosper but after their first three years they had lost over $10 million and were on life support. They did, however, recover quite quickly and then made their mark in the league, winning two premierships in their sixth and eighth years.

Brisbane – As the first completely new club north of the Barassi Line, Brisbane encountered significant financial and on-field challenges, compounded by a lack of community support. The entrance of the Brisbane Broncos into the NRL in 1988 further added to their difficulties, stealing the spotlight and fans alike. After a decade of non-competitiveness and financial drain, the AFL deemed Brisbane to be a hindrance and encouraged a merger with Fitzroy, a fellow basket case from Victoria. It was not until at least 16 years after their establishment that Brisbane became financially sustainable.

Adelaide – Amidst the dire financial straits of many Victorian-based clubs a master plan was hatched which involved the Victorian clubs seeking to dip its bucket into the serene pool of South Australian football wealth. The VFL administrators wanted access to SA’s prized jewel at the time, Football Park, but couldn’t lure the SANFL administrators into their trap. So, they engaged in a divide and conquer strategy that continues to stir deep-seated animosities within South Australia to this day. Initially, they lured Port Adelaide into their fold, but the collective might of the other SANFL clubs quickly rallied. Through a court injunction, they managed to get a composite franchise into the competition. The birth of the Adelaide Crows saw a groundswell of support, becoming a juggernaut in their early days. However, sensing the awakening of a formidable giant, the AFL swiftly plotted to diminish the Crows’ dominance and further exploit South Australia’s football riches.

Fremantle – Following the initial triumph of the Brisbane Broncos, the NRL, in their infinite wisdom, tried to launch a second team in Brisbane named the South Queensland Crushers in 1995. Unfortunately, the Crushers were unsuccessful in their endeavour as most of Brisbane’s population were supporters of the Broncos, and the Crushers could not establish a loyal fanbase. Previous research conducted by the AFL had shown that the introduction of a second team in a city, even in AFL stronghold regions, required a pre-established supporter base. In 1995, the Fremantle Dockers were introduced in Western Australia, with the noble ambition of luring supporters from the local WAFL teams, South Fremantle and East Fremantle. For their first decade the Dockers stumbled around like a newborn calf trying to find its legs before finally gaining the semblance of a stable club.

Port Adelaide – In pursuit of increasing television ratings and reducing the competitiveness of the Adelaide Crows, in 1994 a tender process was held to determine the granting of the second AFL license in South Australia. Realising an established supporter base was required the license was granted to the SANFL club Port Adelaide. To gain access to the SANFL-owned Football Park, the AFL license was jointly owned by Port Adelaide and the SANFL. However, despite winning a premiership in their eighth season, Port Adelaide found themselves in choppy waters as conflicting interests with the SANFL led to an identity crisis and dwindling support. Fifteen years after joining the AFL, Port Adelaide found itself in a position requiring financial assistance, despite being situated in a robust AFL region. It was not until the club was granted sole ownership of the license in its seventeenth year that it became financially viable.

Gold Coast – In 2011, the introduction of the Gold Coast Suns into a rugby-dominated market was aimed at enhancing TV ratings and increasing the value of broadcast rights. As a result of the club being based in an urban area with a population of under 600,000, the club has faced challenges in gaining sufficient support and achieving competitiveness on the field. Since inception, the club has incurred ongoing financial losses, with the AFL footing the bill.

Greater Western Sydney – For the same reasons as the establishment of the Gold Coast, in 2012 the AFL sought to expand its reach into the Western Sydney and Canberra markets by introducing another club. Despite being situated in a populous region of over two million residents and achieving a Grand Final appearance within its eighth season, the club has faced challenges in garnering adequate support. Consequently, the club’s financial performance has continued to be a burden on the AFL’s resources.

The amount of support and prosperity of a club can be assessed by examining its average home attendance. All relocated or new clubs north of the Barassi Line have struggled to attract spectators in the first 13 years.

 

 

Prospective 20^th Franchises

Prior to evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of the potential options for a 20th team, it is important to first assess the demographic factors of the various candidate cities. Cities with a younger and rapidly growing population should be prioritized over those with older, slower growing populations. Based on this criterion, Canberra would be a more favourable option compared to direct competitors Newcastle or Darwin, while the Sunshine Coast would be a more advantageous Queensland option than Cairns.

 

 

Darwin – The prospect of a team in Darwin is a sentimental favourite among those who want a truly national competition. While the region has a strong tradition of AFL and has produced many top-tier players, there are significant challenges that must be taken into account. Foremost among these is the small and decentralized population, which has resulted in average attendances to promotional games of fewer than 9,000 over the past decade. Although the Northern Territory currently enjoys robust AFL television viewership, the addition of a new team in this region would not significantly increase the overall viewership figures, given the area’s modest population size. As a result, the value of broadcast rights would not be expected to increase sufficiently to justify the creation of a new team.

It has been proposed that a Northern Territory team plays three or four games in Alice Springs. While there may be Tasmanians who are willing to travel the two-hour distance between Launceston and Hobart, it is unlikely that many residents of the Northern Territory would be willing to drive the 1,494 kilometres between Marrara Oval in Darwin and Traeger Park in Alice Springs. To put this distance into perspective, it exceeds the distance between Adelaide Oval and the SCG by 100 kilometres.

The humidity factor must also be taken into consideration. Promotional games held in Darwin and North Queensland have a tendency to result in low scoring events, and poor spectacles due to the ball becoming slippery from player sweat. As a result, the average scores observed at Marrara Oval in Darwin and Cazaly Stadium in Cairns are lower than those observed at venues located in southern regions.

 

A roofed stadium with air-conditioning has been proposed for Darwin but with some games played in Alice Springs it would be difficult to justify the expense of building such a stadium for only 8 to 10 games a year.

So, while the idea of a Darwin team might tug at some heartstrings, sometimes sentimentality must take a back seat to common sense.

Canberra – It has been proposed that the national competition requires a team in the national capital. Historically, up until the 1980s, Canberra was primarily an AFL area rather than a Rugby city, with its location lying on the Barassi Line. In 1981, with the impending relocation of the Swans to Sydney in 1982, the NRL strategically placed a team in Canberra as a symbolic demarcation. Since then, Canberra has established a Super Rugby team and has been proposed to receive an A-League soccer team soon. This has resulted in the small population of Canberra becoming a saturated mixed market.

In terms of population size, Canberra would possess a suitable population to sustain an AFL team if it were situated well within AFL territory. Nevertheless, owing to its position within a mixed-market zone, it is likely the city falls short of the required population by approximately half a million individuals, leaving its future prospects murky at best.

Moreover, Canberra presently hosts a pseudo-team as the AFL has secured a long-term contract for Greater Western Sydney to play games in the city until the year 2032. Consequently, the AFL currently maintains a presence in the ACT and may potentially shift its focus to larger growth markets.

Perth – The Western Australian capital boasts two formidable clubs, a state-of-the-art stadium, a rapidly expanding populace, and resides in the heartland of the AFL territory. In light of the fact that memberships for both West Coast and Fremantle have reached their maximum capacity, there has been a proposition to introduce a third AFL team based in Western Australia. However, as sports administrators have learned from the collapse of the South Queensland Crushers, introducing a new team in a market that already has an established club poses significant challenges, unless the new team already has an established supporter base. Presently, no WAFL clubs have a sufficiently large supporter base to justify entry into the AFL. The introduction of a third team in Perth is also unlikely to increase TV broadcast rights and would ultimately be cannibalising the market share of the two existing teams.

Adelaide – Due to reasons similar to Perth, a proposal has been put forward for the addition of a third team in Adelaide. While Adelaide’s market size is smaller than that of Perth and its population growth is slower, there is substantial evidence suggesting that Adelaide is a more devoted AFL town than even Melbourne (refer to Figure 1). When it comes to introducing a new team Adelaide faces all the same challenges as Perth and the South Queensland Crushers, however Adelaide does have one SANFL club, Norwood, which still has a large and loyal supporter base. Nevertheless, the Adelaide Crows’ 33-year tenure in the AFL has eroded a significant portion of Norwood’s youth supporters. The feasibility of adding Norwood as a new team would require considerable time and resources, with little to show for it in terms of broadcast rights.

Newcastle – To enhance the growth of the sport and amplify the value of its broadcast rights, the AFL may contemplate establishing a team in the Rugby League stronghold of Newcastle. Australia’s largest regional city boasts a larger population than Hobart and the Newcastle/Hunter region prides itself on having the largest regional economy in Australia. Its annual output surpasses that of Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and the Australian Capital Territory combined, amounting to over $55 billion. The region, in conjunction with the Central Coast, boasts a long established and strong local Australian football league.

The primary challenges facing the establishment of an AFL franchise in Newcastle relate to the potential for substantial opposition from Rugby league supporters and the requirement for a higher level of financial investment and extended timeframe for the franchise to establish itself compared to other northern expansions. Further complicating matters is the presence of an NRL team, the Newcastle Knights, that is highly revered in the region, along with two A-League teams, the Newcastle Jets and the Central Coast Mariners. A new stadium would be necessary, and it may be possible to negotiate a politically motivated urban renewal project that incorporates a centralized sports area to accommodate all four codes.

Sunshine Coast – Possessing a mix of Newcastle’s grit and the Gold Coast’s glitz this would be another project club for the AFL. The Sunshine Coast has one of the fastest growing populations in Australia albeit in a region traditionally loyal to Rugby League. Its population size surpasses that of Geelong, Hobart, Cairns, and Darwin, and is further complemented by a considerable ex-pat southern state demographic. Notably, the only other professional football team in the area is the recently introduced NRL franchise, the Redcliffe Dolphins, some 60 kilometres away.

As with other expansion clubs into rugby territory a team on the Sunshine Coast would require decades of financial support as well as a new stadium, something Australian politicians seem to want to avoid nowadays.

Cairns – The proposed location of Cairns for the AFL is motivated by the desire to increase the league’s geographic presence. However, given the region’s relatively small population in tropical Rugby League territory, it is unlikely to receive significant consideration.

Similar to Darwin, the development of a roofed stadium with air-conditioning would likely be necessary, along with some serious cash flow to keep the team afloat in the long run.

Conclusion

To evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, a summary of their attributes has been compiled in the table below.

 

 

Among comparable candidates, one can be deemed more favourable than the others. For instance, Cairns is unlikely to be chosen over Darwin or the Sunshine Coast. Additionally, Perth has the potential to accommodate a third team more effectively than Adelaide. Furthermore, Canberra represents a better option than Newcastle.

For each of the proposed options, unfortunately the disadvantages probably outweigh the advantages, leaving the AFL with no obvious location to base a 20^th team.

 

To return to the www.footyalmanac.com.au  home page click HERE

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help keep things ticking over please consider making your own contribution.

Become an Almanac (annual) member – CLICK HERE