Greetings All,
Straight to the footy this week, it’s the time for teams to make their run if they are to displace any of the incumbents.
Fre Falling? (47%) vs Kings of the Road (53%)
Fremantle were supposed to be ready to challenge this year, but one of the pre-requisites to challenge is that you must be competitive on the road, they have turned up their toes on each trip to Victoria this year. While they will be happy to be back at home, they take on the Pies who thrive on the few occasions they are on the road. Pie fans will be quick to point out they have travelled already for 3 of their 8 games thus far, however after this match they are in Melbourne until Round 18. Wins on the board have allowed them the liberty to rest a few players, will it cost them? Hard to tip against them on the road, but the Dockers need to respond after last week’s submission to the Saints and should do so in front of the Purple Haze.
Phillip Who? (32%) vs Jack’s Back (68%)
A couple of significant inclusions likely for the Saints and Blues for Spud’s Game. Mattaes Phillipou looks ready to go and boost their talent in the middle and up forward, while for the Blues Jack Silvagni should return to bolster the defence which was shredded last week. Neither of these teams could be called trustworthy conveyances so predicting the outcome is tough. Suspect the Blues will respond after getting their usual smacking by the Crows in Adelaide. St Kilda were tremendous against Freo will they be able defend the MCG like they do the Loungeroom? That might give Carlton the edge but hard to be certain.
More Please (11%) vs Oh Dear (89%)
The Demons get more of Oliver this week after missing last week, will they have more of him after 2025? They host the Hawks who are likely to see the return of Calsher Dear to the forward line. His addition with Gunston and Chol will stretch the undermanned Melbourne defence who lose Petty to concussion and are already without Lever. Suspect this will way in the Hawks favour and help them register another win.
Injury Ridleyed (31%) vs Harbour Masters (69%)
The injury list continues to grow at Essendon who host the Swans in the Loungeroom. Sydney has their own woes with injuries but were able to over come them and hold sway against their local rivals last week. They have a terrific record at the venue and despite their list of missing players suspect they will still be strong enough to beat the Bombers.
Darwin Theory (45%) vs ‘Rat Attack (55%)
The Suns make their annual pilgrimage to the tropics and host the Dogs. After a big win last week in Ballarat they head to the other extreme of Darwin, they lost this corresponding fixture last year but suspect they will be a bit better prepared. The Suns hit a roadblock last week but overall, both teams are in good form. While Beverige will have his team well prepared for this, Gold Coast have their routine for these sojourns and expect them to be good enough to keep the Dogs out.
Willie Play (28%) vs Curtin Call (72%)
Most news around the showdown this week has centred around Willie Rioli. The AFL have handled the issue poorly, they are not travelling well at the moment. They should have made a stronger statement on the issue and most importantly penalised Rioli, it has left the club to do all the work and messaging that the league should. Whether or not he plays this week remains to be seen. The Crows got back to their attacking best last week and included their defensive best restricting the Blues to 36 inside 50 entries. If that is to be their blueprint, the Crows will feature at the pointy end. They have progressively introduced new players the Dan Curtin and Zac Taylor adding to their depth. Always hard to pick this no matter where each team sits but just think the Crows will have the edge here.
Day Release (75%) vs It’s a Knock Out (25%)
Speaking of poorly handled issues the Tigers will have Noah Balta available this week and shore up the defence, however on the other side the Eagles lose their key defender in Jeremy McGovern to concussion. That should swing this the Tigers way.
Danger Zone (81%) vs Kingsley’s Cross (19%)
Two weeks ago, Patrick Dangerfield did everything he could to lift his Cats to beat the Blues, last week he was at it again and succeeded in getting them over the line against Collingwood. While he might not spend as much time in the middle, he is not losing any of his superpowers and continues to be a huge presence in the game. His team host the Giants who have struck a poor vein of form lately looking nothing like the team Adam Kingsley took within a minute of the Grand Final. Perhaps he can galvanise them for the road trip to Geelong but suspect the Cats will not let this one go.
The Warlord’s Welcome (2%) vs The Dunkleying Machine (98%)
The Roos will welcome back George Wardlaw – might need to tidy up the disposal but no doubt about his ability to win the ball and set the tone for the contest. It will be needed against the Lions. We saw Channel Nine’s farcical dunking machine in their election covering, Brisbane has theirs which is not so farcical. Anyone nominated as the match up for Josh Dunkley just as likely to meet the same fate as those pollies sunk by the machine. Suspect that will also happen to North.
Track Time
Back at Caulfield for local racing and Morphettville for the main race of the day the time-honoured Goodwood.
Morphettville
Race 8 – The Goodwood (G1, 1200m, SWP)
Without a victory for almost two years Giga Kick (7) has earned significant weigh relief that puts him right in this. A 2nd in The Everest provides the strongest of form. The price might be short, but he looks very hard to beat here. The quinella from the Sangster look well placed but swapping the order based on relative weights to give Ameena (12) the edge over Charm Stone (1). Then wary of the raider from the west in Generosity (11) who ran 3rd in the Quokka.
Selections – 7-12-1-11
Quaddie Time
Off to the Heath for a tough one but we will see how we fare.
Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 7, 11
Leg 2 – 9, 10, 11, 13
Leg 3 – 8, 13
Leg 4 – 3, 10, 13, 14
160 Combinations, $30 Investment will return 18.75% of the dividend
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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Rioli and Balta issues handled poorly and the afl struggling is the master of understatement- Sal
thank you