Round 7 – Sal’s Preview: Picking Favourites

Greetings All,

 

We are a quarter of the way through the season, and we should be seeing a few patterns appearing, this week’s view is on the performance of the favourites.  We have had 53 games so far with the favourite winning 40 of them, about 75%.  Inspecting the data on Footy Tipping, incredibly exactly 28,000 have tipped 40 or better, in perspective there are over 870,000 registered tipsters (The top 3%).   While it is 8 out of 116 in the Footy Almanac Tipping Competition.  Suspect sticking with the favourites might be the way to go!

 

So, who are the fancies this weekend?

 

Not Quite Gawn (90%) vs No, No, Noah (10%)

The Demons got on the board on the back of an intense week, the coach promised, the players delivered, they take on the Tigers who pulled off their own big win over the undefeated Suns.  The Dees get May back and Fritsch gets a reprieve, however the Tigers lose Balta at the mercy of the law.  He was a huge part of last week’s win keeping Ben King in check, his absence will stretch their defence.  Suspect that will be enough for Melbourne to take the points here.

 

No Moore (93%) vs It’s Curtains (7%)

The Pies lose their skipper for the Anzac Day clash with Darcy suffering from vertigo.  Is he just pondering how high the Pies can go.  Will be interesting how the defence goes in his absence; they have been so stingy since the opening round.  Not as big as the challenge the Bombers face losing two ruckmen in two weeks with Sam Draper done for the season.  What a stage for Todd Goldstein to come back to!  Just think that will make it a bridge too far for Essendon up against the form side of the competition.

 

Went Amiss (59%) vs Plugged (41%)

The stage could not have been set any better for Freo to come and make statement on the MCG, close at the end but a team with ambition should not get to that position.  They will be glad to be back home and host the Crows who flipped the switch on their style last week.  While scoring was at a premium, they shored up the defence and were able to restrict the Giants to only four goals.  How much was it the Crows and how much the rain?  Suspect the rain assisted but mostly attitude.  Will be tough in Perth where they do not travel well and probably missing Darcy Fogarty.  Expect the Dockers to respond at home and get over the line.

 

Bulldozed (20%) vs Got Nicked (80%)

Both the Saints and Lions will want to respond after poor losses to the Dogs and Pies respectively.  Expected the Saints to make a contest but were completely overrun, they face the Lions who will want to get back to their own attacking flare after being shutdown by the Pies and then torched by Nick Daicos.  The Loungeroom should give St Kilda a good chance, but Brisbane’s record there is formidable.  Expect Ross will make it tough but the Lions to respond and get back to their winning ways.

 

Cracklin’ Rozee (91%) vs Xerri Xerri (3%)

Both much better tunes that Sweet Caroline!  Has Kenny uncovered a diamond in moving Rozee to half back?  Connor has always been high quality; this move appears to resolve the Houston problem and provide great quality delivery from defence.  It might not spend too much time there against North who despite the efforts of Xerri and the midfield continue to give up big scores.  Are the like of LDU, Simkin, Wardlaw and Sheezel doing their share without the footy?  Reckon Luke Parker needs to take the group and lead them, make it part of the celebration of his 300^th game.  What a champion he has been.  Unfortunately, unlikely to be rewarded with a victory.

 

Holding Out for a Hero (71%) vs Air Time (29%)

Did Adelaide expose how dependent GWS are on Jesse Hogan?  Jake Stringer has always been 3^rd or 4^th banana while neither Aaron Cadman nor Jake Riccardi look capable against the best defender.  They could be in trouble if Jesse does not come back in.  They host the Bulldogs in Canberra who have their own forward woes losing Sam Darcy for a lengthy period but at least not the 12 months as anticipated before diagnosis.  Aaron Naughton will need to step up, he did last week and reckon he likes to be the main man.  This should be a great contest with both teams focussed on superior ball movement – they are both great teams to watch.  Could be a challenge with rain predicted in the capital, but suspect it might work better for the Giants who should have learnt from last week.

 

Ben a Long Time (78%) vs Wounded Ducks (22%)

While Gold Coast were outshone by the Tigers, one beacon of light up forward was Ben Long.  He has been having a great season and one of the best forwards in the game at the moment.  Their lack of big scalps was a concern raised last week, and a mature Richmond defence kept them at bay.  They will be glad to be back at home with Sydney having all sorts of issues with personnel, their three main forwards in Amartey, McDonald and Papley on the sidelines.  Cox has had to invent a forward line but somehow needs get more talent up there.  Suspect Heeney needs more time in front of the ball.  Suns at home should win this.

 

Tom (26%) vs Sam (74%)

The De Koning brothers clashed head on in the last encounter and are likely to do so again.  It was in the ruck then; suspect they might also be opposed as attacker and defender at some stage.  While Carlton has their percentage in order there cannot be too much drawn from the last two wins.  They must be up for this challenge against one of the form teams of the competition, an advantage they have is an extra two days off, but Geelong are the ultimate professionals and will manage their recovery well.  Ultimately it comes down to balance and while the Blues have plenty of top talent it falls away quickly, the Cats are much more complete although the loss of Miers will hurt.

 

The Nash Up (99.6%) vs The Only Owen (0.4%)

Despite a mighty effort West Coast remain the only team without a win in 2025.  Doubt that will change this week against the Hawks, who lose Conor Nash to suspension.

 

 

Track Time

We head to Moonee Valley on Saturday but will give that meeting a miss with plenty of questions remaining on the state of the track, instead we will look at the quaddie for the ANZAC Day program at Flemington and a couple of big events in Adelaide on Saturday.

 

Morphettville

Race 7 – Australasian Oaks (G1, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SW)

Second to Treasure the Moment is good form for this so going with Benagil (2) here with Zahra on board .  Main danger is Movin Out (3) backing up from Mornington last week after a mulligan in the Vinery, Femmimile (6) will be suited by the rise in trip and Polymnia (9) is in consistent form.

Selections – 2-3-6-9

 

Race 8 – Sangster Stakes (G1, 1200m, Fillies and Mares WFA)

 Asfoora (1) returns in a wide-open affair.  The best of Charm Stone (9) can win this and suspect this is a first up project for Price/Kent, suspect the same on Ameena (14) for the Freedmans.   She’s Got Pizazz (15) might have enough and beat some handy types last start while the best of Estriella (4) wins this – we just might see it running back against her own sex.  Could have missed the lot!

Selections – 9-14-15-4

 

Quaddie Time

 Flemington Friday

 Leg 1 – 2, 3, 4, 7, 13

Leg 2 – 1, 4, 5, 11, 12

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 11

Leg 4 – 5, 12

150 Combinations, $30 Investment will return 20% of the dividend

 

Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal

 

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