Greetings All,
The season is taking shape and a look at the current eight makes for interesting analysis. 7 of the 8 teams have a pronounced home ground advantage, the exception being Collingwood who play most home games at the G which is shared by many other teams. If the team is good enough they can really use that advantage through the season to get an edge over the Melbourne-based clubs that play at shared venues.
The home records are as follows:
Geelong 4 Wins – 1 Loss (Loss to GWS)
GWS 4-0 at Showgrounds, 1-1 at Manuka (Fremantle)
West Coast 6-1 (Port Adelaide)
Adelaide 5-3 (Hawthorn, Geelong, West Coast)
Brisbane 5-1 (Collingwood)
Port Adelaide 5-2 (Richmond, Adelaide)
Fremantle 5-2 (West Coast, Richmond)
Adelaide are a bit of an anomaly with some patchy form, their 3-2 away record assisting significantly. Noting one of those wins was at a neutral venue in Darwin.
Of the teams out of the eight, only the Tigers and Hawks have won interstate.
The Pies and Cats being one and two will be obstacles for the remaining six. There is every chance though that the flag in 2019 will not fly in Victoria. Notwithstanding a handy MCG specialist lurking in 9th who will be better as their list gets healthier.
The Thursday start makes predicting tougher, but the favourites look set for a good result.
Shielded ($2.60) vs De Boered ($1.62)
Essendon are not the flavour of the month and plenty trying to deflect the pressure on their own coach by potting Worsfold. Perhaps that is valid with the Bombers’ overall record, however their record in the loungeroom is pretty tidy losing only 3 from 12 since the start of last season. The run and gun style is well suited to the venue – the issue this week is that they are up against the best “run and gunners” in the competition in GWS. The loss of De Boer presents a challenge if they need a shutdown job done, which might just be required for former Giant Dylan Shiel. If the Giants have ultimate aspirations for 2019 they win this and I think they will, certainly not discounting the Bombers chances.
Dicky Knee ($1.36) vs Charddy Sippers ($3.70)
The Cats fell to a South Australian mob last week, can the Crows deliver the double? It’s an overused expression but perhaps that was the game they “needed to lose”. They have the skipper playing sore which raises a question about the trust in their depth, they do need to keep winning to lock in a top 2 finish which will be so important this year. On form the Crows look some chance, the numbers at Kardinia Park though are damning with their last win at the venue back in 2003. I don’t expect that record to be altered.
Elephants in the Room ($1.36) vs Nic Nat ($1.61)
The Eagles have got their defence of the premiership back on track and it only gets better with the return of Nic Natanui. They face the Hawks who have been assured that their coach will remain. They have had plenty of other commentary about the state of their list so players will be keen to prove a few wrong. Just not sure their best players are performing well enough. Expect some clever tactics from Clarkson, reckon the other cattle are just better.
Friendless ($1.17) vs Full Eclipse ($6.60)
No Buddy for the Swans can be a challenge but this week should not be an issue as they face the disappointing Suns whose bright opening have been dimmed by recent results.
Big Cat Hunters ($1.34) vs Yo Yo ($3.85)
Port took out the Cats last week and will look to double up against the other domestic pets. The Dogs got away with their inconsistency in games against the Blues, can’t afford to do that against better teams and paid the price against Collingwood. The home ground stats indicated that Port will win this.
Hard to Please ($1.39) vs Going Horse ($3.50)
The Pies have another crack in the loungeroom after getting over the Dogs last week. Bucks was not too impressed, wish my team could have a win like that and a dominant ruckman like Grundy. They take on the Roos whose focus is very much on their 2020 staff, chasing Longmire plus other personnel changes. They have also had to deal with Taylor Garner’s indiscretion on his week off. Too many distractions at North, Pies to win.
Give no Quarter ($3.90) vs Ninth ($1.33)
Take out the third quarter last week and the Saints only lost by six points against a team with genuine finals aspirations. However that third quarter did happen and the narrative has been that it will be costly for Alan Richardson – the club has not done much to counter the discussion. They face the Tigers who find themselves outside of the top eight and looking to get in. They are a good travelling team and not without hope, an improved run with injuries would help. This game should keep their hopes alive.
Kings of the Jungle ($1.58) vs Winning Ugly ($2.68)
Bucks might not have liked the aesthetics of his team’s win, don’t think many Demon fans cared about them with their team getting up last week. They travel to the Gabba which is being re-established as a fortress for the Lions. A top eight team at home against a side out of the hunt, the chances are very much in Brisbane’s favour.
Demonised ($1.33) vs Elephant Hunting ($3.90)
Freo could not get over the Dees at the G last week. They host the Blues who are also spending time and effort chasing their 2020 coach. The Blues are playing better under Teague, but not good enough to beat a finals contender on the road.
Friar Time
An undefeated weekend for the Friars with all the male teams delivering four points and girls sharing them with Old Ivanhoe. The Under 23s had a critical game at South Road and got over Old Brighton to move up to third on the ladder. The Reserves were comprehensive in the win over Glen Eira getting back to 2nd on the ladder. The Seniors held Glen Eira goalless in the first half ultimately recording a 73 point victory. Another triple header at Friar Park this week with the Under 23s kicking off the dew against the yardstick of the competition in Old Xavier. The senior men’s teams face Yarra Valley in what will be a couple of spirited contests. The Girls are on the road playing Old Carey in a critical game to consolidate in the top four.
Go Blues, Go Friars
Cheers, Sal
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Home teams? Should have followed the tip tonight. Last week Essendon were the worst side I have seen in the flesh this season. (A) Loungeroom? (B) Sleeping in your own bed? Or (C) elite sport is played between the ears?
I’ll take C – Eddie.
Have a looming dread about Saturday without the Guvnor. Hope your system doesn’t hold Sal.
$1.36 and $1.61 – jeez the bookies are bigger thieves than I thought.