Happy Footy Opening to all,
Our season’s predictions are in, now it is onto the weekly grind to see how we fair on a week to week basis. Nothing like the grind in the nation’s capital but we are addressing weightier matters. Again the league have stretched their opening over two weeks but our first half open up with a couple of crackers. First of all a game between combatants who have been in the news for all the wrong reasons over summer and Saturday night a derby in the West that might be a preview of the season closer a mere 27 weeks from now!
But there are other matters of sport and in particular cricket to pontificate on.
India Closing
One of the worst tours for the Australian cricket team is fast coming to a close. Very little has come of this tour apart from what appears to be fractured relationship between team leadership and the players. The standing down of players for the third test appeared to be a massive over reaction to a relatively minor infraction, there has to be more to it. I note Mickey has now closed down his Twitter account and left his 33,000 followers with nothing left in their lives. Not sure why a coach needs to bother about social media, surely a distraction from the major job at hand. It is important that coaches get closer to the fans, but in the cold light of day the job is about win and losses no matter who you are talking to. In 12 months’ time the leadership will either be geniuses or on the scrapheap.
Locally speaking
As a fan of test cricket, I was heartened to read the thoughts of Paul Sheahan as MCC president of the unsatisfactory nature of this year’s international cricket fixture and specifically as it related to the MCG. In particular commenting on how early the test season is completed by and then sent in this barb aimed at 20-20. “The scheduling seems to be dictated by the India Premier League, a forgettable form of the game if there is one, the equally unmemorable T20 Big Bash League and the desires of television broadcasters to fit in with their global programming.” Let’s hope the MCC goes into bat for test cricket and hope that the media monitors at the BCCI don’t receive MCC newsletters!
But it is footy we are looking at this week and here are the opening selections.
Don’t Mention the Peptides ($1.54) vs Was that a Chicken? ($2.82)
Sando did mention them, but he doesn’t think they heard him! But we do now know why the pantomime chicken suits were found on the other side of the road from Windy Hill. The Bombers are healthy, but have a task up against Crows in front of their chardonnay sipping throng. The Adelaide midfield are very strong with the likes of Dangerfield, Sloane and Thompson being served by “Sauce” Jacobs. They will have competition from the Brownlow medallist, his cohorts and maybe even Brendan Goddard, but I reckon the Crows will be able to provide better supply to Mr Walker than their counterparts. Overall though these two teams might not be that far apart and whilst Adelaide are justified favourites and my selection, the Bombers rate a solid hope and if $3 is available it might be might be worth a shekel, but the $2.80 is not quite good enough.
Get Stuffed Lyon ($2.06) vs Not Nic Nat ($1.90)
What a kick off to the season in the Wild, Wild, West! These two teams should have high aspirations for the year and this game is for much more than bragging rights. However they both go into the game with injuries to key personnel in “Herman” Sandilands and Zac Clarke for Freo, Nic Nat and Kerr for the Eagles. I reckon the loss of ruckmen for Freo will hurt most especially when up against the class and experience of Big Cox. As a result West Coast are justified favourites and my selection, at current prices I don’t think Freo represent any value.
Black is Back.
The last Group One of the Melbourne Autumn is the William Reid Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA) at Moonee Valley on Friday Night where Back Caviar will step out to win her 24th on the trot. She will canter it in before heading north for the Sydney spoils that await. Need to look at the Quaddie for a way to make a buck, maybe reinvesting the dividend from last week’s success!
Selections R8 – 6-3-7-5
Moonee Valley Quaddie – we will anchor it all with the champ in the last leg, the challenge being how to make sure we are in the game at ¾ time! Strategy to spend our $30 in two quaddies, one with the favourites and going for 125% of a small dividend and another wider selection hoping a couple of the longer odds selections salute.
Favoured Way – 1-6/1-2/4-12/6 – 8 combinations for $10 will return 125% of the dividend
Wider Selection – 1-3-4-6-10/1-2-5-7-11/3-4-9-12-13/6 – 125 combinations for $20 will return 16% of the dividend.
But then to Sydney with a super card set down for decision at Rosehill.
Ranvet Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
The Ranvet looks similar to the recently completed Australian Cup where the class 3 year olds take on the WFA warriors. I reckon the result will be the same too with Fiveandahalfstar to salute from the NZ mare Silent Acheiver. A few of those need to show something and it is with trepidation that I nominate Manighar and Mawingo for the next two spots. Gatewood in the hands of C Waller is of interest also and has had support.
Selections R6 – 13-12-1-4
Coolmore Classic (G1,1500m,F&M)
A fantastic race for the girls with some of the stars of the spring carnival lining up. However a number of them have been penalised for their success. Meanwhile down in the weights one of the most consistent performers in Melbourne takes them on in Star of Giselle, would be a huge effort to win here but with 53kg on a 52 limit she has a great chance. Well worth it at $21. Lots of other chances but steering away from the top three and settling on the 3yo Norzita and Dear Demi to run well along with Flying Snitzel.
Selections R7 – 9-7-6-11
Canterbury Stakes (G1, 1300m, WFA)
Then the big highlight of the day with the clash of the two Waterhouse superstars in Pierro and More Joyous but to just leave the race to them might be folly, with some well-credentialled competitors. Moment of Change has run 2nd to Black Caviar and then just got caught by Shamexpress in the Newmarket. Not my first selection, but may present better value than Pierro. Aeronautical could once again descend from the sky and get close to the winner.
Selections R8 – 10-3-7-6
As for the quaddie the first two legs are wide open, the third we can skinny up to the top three but the last leg is a tough race past the favourite. Should we be lucky enough to snag it the dividend should be healthy.
1st Leg – R6 – 1,4,7,8,12,13
2nd Leg – R7 – 3,6,7,9,11,13
3rd Leg – R8 – 3,7,10
4th Leg – R9 – 11,13
The gives us 216 combinations so for our $30 we would get 13.89% of what might be a nice dividend.
But it is the footy that really takes our fancy this weekend and even though they are not playing this week,
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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