Lightning can strike twice – Budge’s Cup Preview

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After my success from last year, Crio is happy for me to have another crack at the Cup preview. I won’t bother with a horse by horse, run by run preview as you can find that anywhere. I will just give my opinion and look forward to yours.

First, to establish my credentials, here is an excerpt from last year’s preview:
Signoff – really? While it would make a great story with Darren Weir giving all the Internationals a taste of a real Aussie larrikin, I don’t see the Lexus form holding up here. Next!
The German invader, Protectionist, finished like a train in his Oz debut at Caulfield, meets Signoff 2kgs better and has the benefit of the outstanding, and in-form, Ryan Moore. He’s only lightly raced, in an astute stable and, like most of the overseas horses, will improve significantly from his first run here. He’s the one! Get on and enjoy the ride!

Now there’s only one way it can go from that, so it’s all in.

Let’s start with the favourite, Fame Game. Ever since Delta Blues and Pop Rock came out in 2006 and quinellaed the big race, the reputation of the Japanese challengers has sent fear into the hearts of would-be challengers. Fame Game ran a great Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup but the hype has been over the top and he is well under the odds. He ran a blinder when a big finishing second to the Japanese champion Gold Ship in their big 2 miler but he hasn’t even won a Group One race. Furthermore, if it rains that adds to the risk as he’s never even seen a wet track. My mail is he hasn’t set the world on fire in trackwork either. Risking him.

Second favourite is Trip To Paris. Will be fancied due to its name and a strong second in the Caulfield Cup but seems under the odds compared to his compatriots in Big Orange and Quest For More as there doesn’t appear to be a lot between them on their European form. Can win but pretty short now.

Ever since I did the form for Our Ivanhowe when he was first coming out I’ve thought he was the one. Last year he beat See The Moon in a Group One over 2400m in Germany, then ran at $26 in the Arc behind Treve. A few weeks later he appeared in the Japan Cup before arriving in Australia. He is a true Group One stayer, in a stable who knows how to get the job done in this race and his last run third in the Caulfield Cup was a perfect blowout for this. Drawn wide but prepared to take the odds to that. Put him in all your multis. He’s my tip for this year.

Preferment and Gust Of Wind appeal as the best of the Aussie stayers. Both look to be suited to the distance and track (Preferment unbeaten at HQ). The other one worth mentioning as a roughie is Quest For More. In the Caulfield Cup, Tommy Berry was engaged for both Trip To Paris and Quest For More, who was an emergency. The deal was that if QFM got a run, Berry was going to be on that. Since then Trip To Paris has run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and QFM 2nd last in the Geelong Cup when he had a really tough run (read good hitout) behind the very impressive Almoonqith. TTP is now about $8 and QFM $100. I know where my trifecta money will be going.

My tips are:
(4) OUR IVANHOWE
(15) PREFERMENT
(17) ALMOONQITH
(24) GUST OF WIND
(16) QUEST FOR MORE (best roughie)

What do you like??

Here’s the Almanac trifecta as determined by the lunch yesterday.

Comments

  1. without having bothered to access a formguide, I’m on a similar path (except probably no punt).
    I backed “Quest” in the Caulfield Cup and got my money back. Stayed away at Geelong. So $25 the drum is better than most of the other English offers. Ivanhowe has great credentials and form – and gives the “local hero” option for journos with the old FBI connection. Criterion, Who Shot Thebarman and Gust Of Wind would be my other tri-actions were I so disposed.

  2. a 7 horse field in R2 @ 11.20am; that’s going to boost turnover!

  3. Snow Sky is silly odds at around $51

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