Grand Final 2024 – Sal’s Preview and tips for Moonee Valley

 

Greetings All,

 

We reach the end of one of the closest seasons ever that has also seen so many close finals. No matter what the Lions and Swans dish up this week I was more than satisfied with last week’s preliminary final at the MCG.

 

Whilst we had plenty of close games the Brownlow was not. Have not anyone dispute Patrick Cripps as a rightful and worthy winner, however the number of votes shared between he and Nick Daicos require scrutiny. Add to it the fact that the top 11 players polled over 25% of all the votes available. I understand the popular commentary that the umpires should be provided the stats to help them make voting decisions. That would make the whole thing just another media award and certainly would not change the trend that only midfielders win. The 3-2-1 voting system is flawed that only 3 players are worthy of votes on the ground and the best players is three time more valuable than the third best. Perhaps making a change there is worthy, it has been done before originally the umpire only awarded one vote to the best on the ground.

 

How do the four umpires collaborate? Does the need for consensus always swing it back to the tried and true? Suspect some work can be done there. However overall the Brownlow is what it is, the umpires award? It might be known as the highest individual honour in the game, reckon Paddy would swap both of his to be standing on the dais on Saturday afternoon. I know that’s what I’d prefer to see.

 

 

Horse Tails (57%) vs Holding the Fort (43%)

 

The Swans and Lions are two of the best teams to watch, what a treat to see them clash on the MCG for the grand prize! They have been the vanquished in the last game in the last two years, which one will get the prize. For “Horse” Longmire it is his fifth grand final with only one win, he will be so keen to double that. Chris Fagan is waving the flag for plenty of us, not just the over 60s but he will become the first premiership coach never to have played the game at the top level. There are just so many other stories attached to this game.

 

The injury to Oscar McInerney looms large and whether Darcy Fort can carry the load up against Grundy will be a major factor. How much work Daniher does on the ball could be significant also, the Lions forward line looked harder to defend when he was on the ball last week. Suspect Brisbane will try and have a smaller look for longer this week. Sydney pulled the pin quickly on Mills which took away a lot of the focus and the right decision based on some of their decisions on injured players in previous Grand Finals. There will be some risk with playing Logan McDonald but suspect his injury was not too severe and they shut him down last week as soon as Port were shut down.

 

Both of these teams excel on turnover and will look to do so here, if they balance out here then the contest in the middle will be key. Grundy lowered his colours early last week as Port dominated out of the middle but could not take advantage. If Brisbane can win the ball out of the centre expect them to be better up forward, the one condition that they kick straight. If Sydney can at least break even on clearance that will hold them in good stead. How Brisbane counter the Sydney turnover game will be important, they cannot let Blakey get on the move and create. The same applies at the other end where Sydney will need to disrupt the Brisbane possession game. What will make this game so attractive and interesting is the desire of both teams to attack through the corridor.

 

Last week we saw the Sydney forwards get hold of Port’s defence, the likes of Paine and Andrews will be a tougher prospect. Expect Parker to try and limit the influence of Andrews. Does James Jordon go to Zorko or Neale? At the other end McCartin and Melican should have the big boys while Rampe organises the rest. Brisbane have plenty of other goal kickers they are noot all consistent but any one of them can jump up as a match winner. Sydney’s match winners are more likely to come through the middle with the likes of Gulden, Warner and Heaney. Not to discount the irrepressible Tom Papley.

 

Overall this is a ripping renewal of the Grand Final with both sides have a great chance. Just swaying to the Swans being a bit fresher and expect McInerney’s absence could be the difference in a game decided by 8 points.

 

 

Track Time 

 

With the main event at the G on Saturday, the races head to Moonee Valley on Friday Night for the main meeting featuring the Manikato Stakes which has been shifted from Cox Plate Day to attract a better field. Sydney also has a major race with the Golden Rose to be contested at Rosehill.

 

Moonee Valley (Friday Night)

 

The night racing season kicks off with a pretty tough card with plenty of races to watch with the next few weeks in mind, but that should not stop us from having a crack. The 3YOs open proceedings where we have three one start one win runners – of these new kids on the block going with Stanley Express (R1, #3) but none would shock. Winning form is good form so War Machine (R2, #10) goes on top in the second.  Celui (R3, #4)can mix his form but is good fresh, a winner here and gets a handy claim. The other raced moved to this meeting is the Feehan and while it is a quality field only four of them will disappoint the club. Suspect Pride of Jenni (R4, #4) and Mr Brightside (R4, #1) will put on their usual show of which I favour the latter here. But with a small field and the likelihood of a tactical affair perhaps an investment on Antino (R4, #2) might be worth it. Reckon it’s a watch race.

 

The fillies open the Quaddie in the Scarborough Stakes like the top two but prefer the draw of Eneeza (R5, #1). It’s the boys turn in the Stutt where Dawn Service (R6, #3) will try and run them ragged again, he is the way to go if the track is leaderish. If not then like the chances of Henlein (R6, #7).

 

Race 7 – Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA) 

 

Looks like there is a good crop of three year olds this season and not many have been as impressive as Growing Empire (12) is stepping into open company but has a win here and looks pretty good. The filly Hayasugi (13) was very good in the Moir and should improve as should I Wish I Win (1) getting out to a more suitable trip. Not discounting the winner there in Coleman (11) who has a distinct liking for the Valley and also looking for improvement from Estriella (8).

 

Selections – 12-13-1-11 

 

Looking for Grinzinger Belle (R8, #1) to run them ragged in the last as she did in the Let’s Elope last start.

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 5, 6

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg 3 – 1, 11, 12, 13

Leg 4 – 1, 5

 

160 Combinations, $30 investment returns 18.75% of he dividend.

 

 Hoping for a Great Grand Final,

 

Cheers, Sal

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