Greetings All,
What a concept, every team playing in the same city – makes you long for the days of yore when every team played in Melbourne every week aside from the occasional day trip to Geelong. No good looking in the rear view mirror though – the way forward is a national competition and the Gather Round has gathered support. Looking forward mostly to the clashes being hosted at ‘other’ grounds with two at Norwood in the ‘burbs and one at Mount Barker in the Hills. They might not be the biggest drawing fixtures but playing on unfamiliar grounds makes it interesting. The events of the week in fact make the whole round interesting no matter where they are playing.
Rankine File ($2.06) vs Playing Again Sam ($1.92)
The return of Izak Rankine to his home town has shown how much of a challenge the new franchises have in not only keeping their talent but to have them play at their peak. His talent was always evident back home he has delivered consistency not only throughout matches but from week to week. A shame about the cowards who have abused him behind their pseudonyms on social media. His Crows get to host the Blues who have had a bittersweet week losing Sam Docherty to injury but getting a let off at the tribunal and the return of Sam Walsh from back surgery. The Blues didn’t turn up to the corresponding fixture last year, they can ill afford to do the same again especially with the form the Crows have shown. Both forward lines can stretch their opposition, but just think the Blues bat a bit deeper in the middle and the two ruckmen will be a handful for O’Brien. The head says 50-50 but the heart wins out and says Blues take this out.
Long Mired ($1.70) vs At Their Witts End ($2.40)
Both the Dockers and Suns are struggling with only one win apiece, so they get to play at Friday Night Happy Hour. Whether Freo are playing to the coach’s plan or not, it is an issue Longmuir will need to resolve before the season gets away. A healthy percentage indicates they might not be too far away. Gold Coast have a couple of players that are their heart and soul. Jarrod Witts is one of them, his absence told last week and is not likely to be back this week. Freo should come away from this happier.
Lynched ($2.58) vs Lanced ($1.60)
Friday’s main fare has the Tigers facing the Swans with both sides decimated by injury, the question being who will be hurt most? Lynch and Nankervis are very much the keys to the Tiges who already have plenty unavailable. Losing the McArtin brothers puts a hole in the Swans defence. It may sound heretic but the loss of Buddy at the other end works in their favour to this observer. Buddy still has the presence and stature to attract the footy and goes to all right spots, but the great man is not what he used to be and most opponents have his measure these days. With a spread of targets up forward and less predictability picking the Swans to take this one out.
Rayner Predicted ($1.21) vs Ben a Long Time ($5.00)
The Lions and Roos are off to the hills where we might see footy like it used to be with plenty of rain predicted on a country ground. The Roos could get Ben McKay back on the ground after missing another game against Harry. The poor conditions might suit the tough inside mids for North assuming Ben Cunnington also holds his spot even after his public shaming by Clarkson, but overall suspect Brisbane will hold sway with the likes of Dunkley and Neale more than happy to roll their sleeves up.
On a String ($3.85) vs Another GoodWin ($1.33)
The twilight zone awaits Essendon and Melbourne who are both coming off wins against lowly opposition. The weight of numbers gave Jake Stringer plenty of chances to find the target eventually booting four to bury the Giants, while Melbourne again showed their attacking prowess reaching the ton for the third time in the year. Reckon they might again this week and the Bombers won’t.
Bunnies Hopped ($1.58) vs Game Hunters ($2.68)
Port bounced their bunnies in the Swans for seven in succession, they host the Dogs who are back in the hunt after taking down the Tigers. The loss of Alex Keath is significant with the maturing of Todd Marshall becoming a much greater threat than in previous years alongside Charlie Dixon. Charlie has his knockers but contests late in the game last week were huge factors in getting his team over the line. This could be perfectly set up for Libba, if the rains hit and this is game four at the venue in three days – he will love the slush. Reckon though that Port have enough to match in the likes of Boak and Wines and the playing at home factor will get them over the line.
Awoken ($1.10) vs Deemolished ($9.40)
The Cats stirred after half-time on Monday to remind us all of what they are capable of. Suspect they will do the same again to the Eagles who felt the full brunt of the Demons last week.
Caddy Shock ($1.46) vs Carpe Diem ($3.00)
The Hawks may have wilted against the Cats but they had already seized the day by signing Will Day for another four years. They have a long way to go but a great sign that one of their young stars has recommitted. Meanwhile the Giants are set to debut their prized number one pick in Aaron Cadman to provide more support to Hogan and Greene up forward. A handy game to debut against the Hawks who have a habit of fading out in games. Suspect they might again here.
Lionised ($1.52) vs Lyonised ($2.88)
The Pies and Saints close out the weekend with a Sunday Afternoon Special. Despite the efforts of Nick Daicos and urgings of Brian Taylor Collingwood could not close the gap on the Lions to suffer their first defeat – the Gabba is a tough place to visit! Meanwhile the coach many love to hate has his Saints flying. This scribe lamented his return after a dour struggle in Round One, humble pie is hard to swallow. Since then St Kilda have still proven hard to score against, but have smashed the scoreboard themselves with 14, 14 and 17 goals in the last three matches. All this without his two key forwards in King and Membrey (who may be back this week). The Pies present another challenge, like the Saints they are a running machine with plenty of grunt inside the contest with the likes of Mitchell and Adams, while the Saints should have an advantage in the ruck. Marshall’s advantage might be enough for the Saints but just think Collingwood’s form is that bit better and will win this.
Track Time
The Championships close out this week with two Group One events. The babies stretch out to a mile in the Champagne Stakes while the sprinters and milers collide in the All Aged Stakes over seven furlongs. With weather predicted to be on the improve we may get to a soft track for Saturday.
Race 7 – Champagne Stakes (G1, 1600m, 2yo SW)
Most of the main players for the Slipper have taken their bat and ball and gone home, leaving only a couple left to fight this out unless we get something from left field. It was hard not to be impressed with Militarize (2) in winning the Sires, by Dundeel there little doubt the extra 200m won’t be a problem. The only question being whether or not the heavy track was so much in his favour over the vanquished. The best of the vanquished was Don Corleone (1), given the same conditions I can’t see a different result but perhaps more of a chance if the track dries out. Of the others Tom Kitten (4) for GSOB won last start over the journey and Townsend (9) gets the services of B Prebble so may see some different tactics to see out the journey. Make a Call (6) split those two last week.
Selections – 2-1-4-9
Race 8 – All Aged Stakes (G1, 1400m, WFA)
What a ripping affair to close out the G1s. Going with the babies here specifically Giga Kick (12) was enormous in the TJ just needs to get the extra 200m and reckon he can. If he doesn’t then Jacquinot (11) will, freshened up for this and has a perfect fresh record. Can never discount the Godolphin war horse Cascadian (4), never runs a bad race and won this last year. Flopped in the TJ but Private Eye (3) can win this at his best. Incredible leaving out Zaaki (1), Lost and Running (2) and Mazu (5) but you can’t have them all.
Selections – 12-11-4-3
Quaddie Time
We are going to bank on the top two in the opening leg as the rest are pretty wide.
Leg 1 – 1, 2
Leg 2 – 1, 3, 4, 11, 12
Leg 3 – 3, 4, 5, 12, 16
Leg 4 – 7, 8, 9, 12
200 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 16.7% of the dividend.
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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