Finals Week 3 – Sal’s Preview and Caulfield tips: A coming of age

 

Greetings All,

 

No matter what we like or don’t like about him Jack Ginnivan is the gift for the AFL that just keeps on delivering!  The battle lines were split pretty much by allegiance after Ken Hinkley gave Jack the message he probably expected after his tweet to Brodie Grundy.  Hawthorn players, coaches, ex-players and supporters were apoplectic; most others thought he got what was coming despite it not being a “good look”.  Perhaps if the skipper took it on the chin and didn’t escalate the Luke Breust send off might have got the attention it deserved, just not sure Sicily would ever take it on the chin.   Amongst all the commentary the reference to Kenny’s age by Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell perplexed me – in particular the ‘act your age’ comment.

 

If Kenny’s actions were so abhorrent at what age are they OK?  Would that kind of action be OK for the younger Sam Mitchell, Michael Voss or Adam Kingsley?  Let’s not even think about Clarko.  The game is intense, competitive and passionate, finals even more so.  While coaches are not on the ground they need to have that intensity, passion and competitiveness to do their job no matter the age.  Reactions like Kenny’s are going to happen – it wasn’t physical, it wasn’t racist, it wasn’t homophobic, it was even quite factual (Jack was flying home) and it was great theatre (for some).

 

As someone who has crossed that threshold of sixty I relish the chance not to act my age and hope Port and Brisbane play off in the Grand Final with a pair of elder statesmen at the helm.

 

 

The Heeney’s Out of the Bottle (86%) v They’re Flying (14%)

 

Isaac Heeney has been a star all season, his efforts two weeks ago a major reason why this game is on and plays his 200th game.  His team has been the team to beat all year despite a few hiccups and are the only team that has won their last four.  The question from two weeks ago remains about the capacity of their tall forwards to perform, most importantly they need to compete.  The Port defenders were able to contain Dear, Chol and Gunston last week, it was the smalls that got off the chain and nearly won it.  Papley and Hayward can certainly cause some chaos.  It is similar at the other end where Port do not have dominant tall forwards but there are not many that have the magic touch of Willie.  Rioli only needs a handful of possessions to create goals for himself and the team.  Both teams then have the ace up the sleeve with Horne-Francis and Heeney who are both effective forwards.  So who can get more of the footy from the middle, it is Port’s One Wood.  If they can get the drive from Butters, Wines, Rozee and JHF then it gives them a great chance.  Which one will Jordon go to?  The other way Sydney will prefer to get a balanced performance from the likes of Warner and Gulden, however they showed it does not take much for them to turn a game on its head.  There are two other factors to discuss – the first is not a preferred topic.  The umpiring in these finals so far has been ordinary at best and a factor in all the close games.  They have adjudicated with the momentum rather than to the laws of the game.  The supposed crackdown on players soaking up the tackle for a ball up has all but disappeared.  It might have detracted from the spectacle but the rules are there to be applied consistently not just with the flow of the game.  The other is Port’s record against Sydney having won the last eight, they clearly match up well.  It gives them a real chance although it should be noted only one of the last six were at this venue and that margin was only two points.  Just think that week off, being out of the spotlight and at home the Swans can prevail by 21 points.

 

 

Domestic (57%) v Wild (43%)

 

The felines battle it out for the other place in the Grand Final,  The Kings of the Jungle need to travel this time to book their spot after a stirring win over the Giants.  Is that patchy form good enough to beat the domestic variety of felines?  On the plus side they are laden with talent, some of that talent just needs to do more.  The likes of McCluggage, Berry, Dunkley are all consistent: if Rayner, Bailey and Cameron can get going they are a huge chance.  The other edge they have should be Oscar in the ruck over whatever the Cats put up.  Lachie Neale’s fitness is a discussion point although perhaps we saw the future last week with Will Ashcroft taking over in the middle to drive the Lions home.  On the other side plenty has fallen into place for the Cats, the introduction of Mannagh and Humphries improving the team overall.  Neale has slotted into the role replacing Tomahawk.  Just who do the Lions have that can look after Jeremy?  They also have the benefit of a week off and watching Brisbane, the Cats coaching team are masters of taking away the opposition strengths.  For the Lions to win everything has to go right, the Cats are good at not letting that happen and reckon they will get home by 15 points for a 2023 rematch.

 

 

Track Time

 

We head to The Heath for the main meeting this Saturday, would have thought bringing the meeting forward by at least 30 minutes if not 60 so as not to clash with the Preliminary Final would have been wise but at least only one race is on after the bounce.  In Sydney there are a couple of key races to watch as we look forward to the classics and The Everest.

 

Caulfield

 

Flamin’ Romans (R1, #14) has to step up in class but is a last start winner and there are not many of those in this lot.  We get a shorty in the next and no wonder Federer (R2, #11) by Dundeel out of Jameka and is 2 from 2, wonder what the grand plan is?  The mares meet in an open affair, hoping Anahita (R3, #7) with the Magic Man steering can improve from its recent Sydney runs.  The lightly raced Lilac (R4, #7) also comes down from Sydney and gets the services of M Zahra.  A ripping edition of the Testa Rossa with Another Wil (R5, #3) a deserved favourite after a great win last start, not sure about taking odds on though, Craig (R5, #9) might be the up and comer that could cause an upset.   The sprint also sees a great field Rey Magnerio (R6, #12) could present good value, has to overcome the outside barrier but that might be an advantage by this time.

 

We kick off the Quaddie with what was formerly The Naturalism and a ticket into the Caulfield Cup up for grabs.  8th of 10 last start does not look great for the import St George (R7, #15) but was held up all the way down the straight and looked like he had plenty to give.

 

Race 8 – Underwood Stakes (G1, 1800m, WFA)

 

Might be a couple of group one horses but this is not a group one field.  One of these has run in L’Arc and has a great fresh record so the support for Place du Carrousel (11) is understandable, add the engagement of Zahra and it’s almost compelling.  Main challenges from the fit horses in particular Pericles (2) and Buckaroo (8) both last start winners and giving some hope to Coco Sun (13) who has a G1 victory and steps up to open age.

 

Selections – 11-8-2-13

 

The Guineas Prelude is a really tough one to pick with plenty of quality testing themselves, like what I have seen from Angel Capital (R9, #2) but none would shock.  We close the day with an open mares race with Revolutionary Miss (R10, #3) an intriguing runner.  Was poor last campaign, C Maher takes over and her record here is outstanding (6:3-2-0): happy to take her each way.

 

Quaddie

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 15, 16

Leg 2 – 2, 8, 11, 13

Leg 3 – 2, 4, 5, 10, 12

Leg 4 – 3, 6, 8

300 Combinations, $30 investment returning 1-% of the dividend

 

Go the Grandpas

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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