Greetings All,
This weekend used to be a bit of a procession for the Qualifying Final winners, however that has all turned on its head since the advent of the bye before the finals where only 5 out 12 of them have made it to the Grand Final and on only one of those occasions was it both that played off. In some better news a Qualifying Final winner won the flag each time they went through. How will the stats pan out over the next couple of weekends?
Domestic ($1.31) vs Wild ($4.10)
Two versions of felines go at it at the G. The Lions made the two obvious changes from last week’s victory with Oscar and Joe returning, a bit tough on Darcy Fort who was terrific. The ruck is one area where they could have an advantage over the Cats, Rhys Stanley is at best an adequate ruckman but the Cats have had that set up for a while and he does command respect around the ground. Ultimately we look for differentiators in these types of games and Jeremy Cameron stands out. Not sure Brisbane have a match up who can compete in the air and run with him. If they let him go up field and get him on the way back his field kicking could pull them apart. Gary Rohan presents another tough match up while Hawkins will occupy Andrews. At the other end Geelong look to have the coverage on Daniher, Hipwood and Cameron though each are capable of winning a game off their own boot. The elephant in the room is Geelong’s ability to seize up in these cut-throat contests, however suspect we are watching a different Geelong this year with a bit more dare in their game. Brisbane are not without a chance but reckon the Cats will have all the answers and might make this one of the less attractive finals winning by 29 points.
Horsing Around ($1.44) vs On the Fly ($3.20)
The veteran and the rookie go head to head in the coaches boxes, both have done magnificent jobs this year and notably both did long apprenticeships before getting the top gig. Sydney were convincing against the Pies in their last encounter but notably De Goey was an absentee, he has been breathtaking in this finals series so far. The one thing Sydney did that astonishingly no-one else has is clamp down on Nick Daicos, suspect the Pies will have a plan for that this time but just reducing his possessions by 50% will have a massive impact as his touches are so creative. Collingwood won’t worry about the opposition they will just play at warp speed as they have all season and live or die by it. The SCG will hold no fears, they love it on the road and are 50-50 at the venue in recent times (one win against their bunnies in Melbourne last year). What we will get from the Swans is effort, when challenged the likes of Parker and Mills just put the nose to the wheel and grind their team home. This will be a beauty and the satchel swingers have it all wrong. It’s a line ball call and I would usually go with the home team, but the stats say one of the qualifying finalists will lose and it might be the Swans by 8 points.
Track Time
Caulfield in the spotlight this week to lead us into the Preliminary Final, while in Sydney the races are just around the corner from the SCG at Randwick. Both programs packed with must watch races as we look towards the classics coming up in a few weeks. Great performances from I’m Thunderstruck and Alligator Blood in the Makybe Diva last week – both looking to the Cox Plate as their main targets. We then follow up on Sunday at Flemington with a meeting previously held midweek, worth having a look at the Derby and Oaks trials to see who might challenge in those races.
Caulfield
We open at The Heath with an interesting race over 2000m, with a number of Cup nominated horses contesting. If we get the rain and a soft/heavy track would be keen on Fengarada (R1, #3), has been terrific on heavy tracks this is a step up. Andifficult affair for the fillies follows Xtravagent Star (R3, #6) looks high quality but wary if it gets too wet. A nice group of mares take go around in the 3rd and reckon Zouzarella (R3, #6) can pick them up if the track plays fairly.
It’s then time for the races that need to be watched with an eye to the future. The Guineas preludes kick-off with the boys edition where Aft Cabin (R4, #2) was a short favourite beaten last start but not by much so expecting a good performance. These races though can kick up a new one on the scene, Meridius (R4, #4) and Amenable (R4, #7) both closed well last start and might present better value. The fillies renewal is wide open, interesting runner in the New Zealand filly She’s Licketysplit (R5, #1) who has a Group I victory and is favourite. Will the NZ form stack up? Little would surprise but predicting the Sydney form will prevail and like the chances of Russian Conquest (R5, #4) provided it does not get too wet.
The Quaddie opens with The Naturalism which gives the winner a ticket to the Caulfield Cup. No matter the winner a race with plenty of Cup hopefuls whose efforts will require analysis. If the Heatherlie form stacks up then Sheraz (R6, #4) gets in with 1.5kg off the winner to make up ½ a length over an extra 300m. Plenty more in the opening leg.
Race 7 – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (G1, 1400m, HCP)
NZ form did stack up a couple of weeks ago when I Wish I Win (18) blew a handy field away, this is tougher but he looks good enough just needs to get a run as he second emergency. If not him then who? Landed on Showmanship (10) good fresh and undefeated of the distance – might be a fillip for Mr Peters who sent three back west this week. Tuvalu (15) is yet to miss the quinella in 11 starts and looks well weighted as does the mare Chaillot (16). First start for Price/Kent and handy fresh record. Would rate Ayrton (8) higher just think the handicapper got him on potential.
Selections – 18-10-15-16-8
Happy to be on the undefeated Chain of Lightning (R8, #4) till the bubble bursts. If we get a good track then I will be In the Boat (R9, #1) likely to be scratched with sniff of rain, if that’s the case then giving Prince of Boom (R9, #3) another spin. Just got too far back at Moonee Valley.
Randwick
Race 7 – George Main Stakes (G1, 1600m, WFA)
Both Zaaki (1) and Anamoe (3) have returned brilliantly in winning their fresh starts convincingly, it just comes down to a choice and maybe the odds on offer. Putting Anamoe (3)on top only as the younger horse that might have not reached his peak, will swap that if the track get into the heavy range. Fangirl (9) was terrific in the Winx and another 200m won’t be an issue and Duais (6) should be improving as she heads on a cups campaign.
Selections – 3-1-9-6
Nature Strip (R8, #1) has quality opposition in The Shorts and he is 50-50 first up, not sure I’d take less than $3. A few double acceptances in the Kingston Town – something to get used this spring as trainers will be chasing the right surface for their charges with La Nina to create havoc. Will be watching Benaud (R9, #9) with an eye to the future, Surefire (R9, #12) the likely winner.
Quaddie
It’s tripod season already but we plough on!
Leg 1 – 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14
Leg 2 – 8, 10, 15, 16, 18
Leg 3 – 2, 3, 4
Leg 4 – 1, 3, 9
415 Combinations, $30 Investment returns 7.2% of the dividend. Expect some scratchings.
Go the Finals!
Cheers, Sal
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