Caulfield Guineas Preview – My Goodness, My Guineas

Welcome to the Silly Season,


This weekend sees the first of the racing classics, but first a bit of a look back.


Whilst many did not predict the Grand Final being a one-sided affair hindsight says it was always a likely scenario.  The Hawks stamped themselves early in the games just as they did the two previous weeks.  Kochies’ lament about interstate clubs lack of exposure at the MCG is rubbish.  The Grand Final record for interstate teams at the G is impressive winning the first eight encounters against Victorian clubs in the big one, it is just the last three years in the Hawthorn where they have failed.  Maybe David should consider the disproportionate representation of the six established interstate clubs in Grand Finals over that time also?  And that Hawthorn does play four home games interstate per year.


Well done to the Hawks!  All be it grudgingly.


It’s Guineas Day

The limelight heads to the neddies where three year old Group One races are being held in both Sydney and Melbourne in a strange bit of scheduling.  Caulfield is hosting the massive Guineas program while the Spring Champion Stakes closes down the Sydney spring carnival at Royal Randwick.  We’ll assess that first before a look at all the group races at Caulfield this weekend.


Royal Randwick Race 6 – Spring Champion Stakes (G1, 2000m, 3yo SW)

We should be used to a Waller favourite in big races and Vanbrugh (1) fits the bill here, won the Gloaming convincingly and meets plenty of that lot again on the same terms.  Giving Tatoosh (2) the next best chance after chasing him home well in that race.  Jadeer (8) heads back north after a kill at the Valley and Man of Choice (5) ran 3rd in the Gloaming.

Selections – 1-2-8-5


Caulfield Race 2 – The Schillaci Stakes (G2, 1100m, WFA)

Terravista, Buffering and Chautaucqua were all successful last weekend, this week we see the return to the track of Lankan Rupee (1) who is “flying” by all reports.  No doubt his best wins this, but if the reports are not quite right then Shiraz (2) will be there to pounce.  Might not be a huge quinella but better than straight out on the hot pot!  Alpha Miss (5) trialled OK behind Lankan Rupee (1) and looks the pick for third, but I prefer the price of Cashed (4) who has an excellent record over this distance.  But really a watch race with such a shorty, but a mouth-watering set of sprints coming up during the cup carnival.

Selections 1-2-4-5



Caulfield Race 3 – Thoroughbred Club Stakes (G3, 1200m, 3yo Fillies SWP)

Gai brings Harlem River (1)  to this race after a solid winter debut campaign, has won two trials in the lead up to this so looks well suited.  Serenade (2) and Secret Agenda (4) chased a good one home at the Valley and Invincible Heart (6) won a lesser class race here.

Selections 1-2-6-4


Caulfield Race 5 – The Herbert Power Stakes (G2, 2400m, Quality HCP)

This time honoured event includes a free ticket into the Caulfield Cup next week and there are a few of these that need the win to get in.  The Derby form worked for us last week and Bondeiger (6) finished well last start – might be back on track and looks reasonable value amongst this group.  The Weird One is backing up Amralah (3) after a sound performance in the Turnbull.  Black Tomahawk (8) won the Harry White with a superb ride from Glenn Boss, but the best closer was Excess Knowledge (5) – I doubt G Boos will get away with it this time.  At First Sight (11) chased them home, has further weight relief and C Williams on board.  Chances don’t end there with Prince of Penzance (1), Bohemian Lily (9), Albonetti (10) and if Sertorius (2) finds his best he blows them away.

Selections 6-3-5-11


Caulfield Race 6 – Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

Otherwise known as the Cox Plate Prelude this renewal features a small but elite field including the nominal Cox Plate favourite Kermadec (7).  His record makes him undoubtedly a chance in this race, but one I am prepared to risk.  Whilst his breeding suggests the distance will not be an issue it is his first start beyond the mile, so this is a test as to whether he can cover the Cox Plate journey.  If he does win then his Cox Plate price will tighten further.  Plenty of others who are known over the journey and at the scale.  One of them is Fawkner (2) who is so consistent as has been pointed out before.  Criterion (1) is also a risk first up coming off his European Vacation, but certainly has the class.  Contributer (4) and Mongolian Khan (8) are going OK but not winning.

Selections 2-7-1-4


Caulfield Race 7 – Toorak Hcp (G1, 1600m, HCP)

The first of the major Melbourne Mile handicaps is the Toorak and unlike the previous race the field is chockers, save for the scratching of Amicus (9).  As usual form lines from everywhere to analyse, but I noted the word of Glenn Boss as he dismounted Lucky Hussler (1) after the Rupert Clarke declaring he wins if he gets the run.  That is good form for this, but it is a wide race.  The Toorak has been the target for Disposition (7) who ran well in the Rupert Clarke and the winner Stratum Star (2) can’t be discounted.  Down in the weights we find the Warrnambool Wonder Akavouron (16), don’t like wide draw but looked in good nick last start in Melbourne before the failure in Sydney where a compass was required to navigate the right-handed course.  Plenty of other hopes including 4, 11, 12 and 18 – and still might miss!

Selections 1-7-16-2


Caulfield Race 8 – The Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo Fillies SW)

Have found it difficult to follow the 3yo form this season, possibly due to the late finish of the footy season.  It is a pretty open affair and looking for a filly that will get strong mile.  Most the top picks a bred quite stoutly, but one of them Badawiya (6) won over the trip last week.  Ahead of her I have Stay With Me (7) a daughter of previous winner Miss Finland and meets Miss Gunpowder (2) 1.5 kgs better off.  Pasadena Girl (1) is racing well and gets Hugh El-Bowman.  Chances also to Jameka (4) and Alaskan Rose (9) at longer odds.

Selections 7-6-1-2


Caulfield Race 9 – Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3yo SW)

The Stallion Maker again features a prominent favourite, can he make a statement?  Press Statement (1) has not drawn well but that might just get us a better price.  Caulfield can also be a challenge for Sydney horses taking it on for the first time.  The Waller team cover most of this stuff pretty well but we will only know on race day.  The current quote of $2.50 is too short for mine.  So who can beat him?  Ready for Victory (4) has turned into Overdue for Victory, his best is up to this but is a bigger risk.  Winning form is good form and Bon Aurum (6) and Tarzino (13) have both saluted in their last two, probably like the former’s wins better.  But it is wide open once we get past Press Statement (1), will be watching a couple from a derby perspective especially Kentucky Flyer (12).

Selections 6-13-1-4


Caulfield Race 10 – Cape Grim Beef Steaks (G3, 1200m, Mares SWP)

A well monikered race and we might be pretty grim, if we haven’t found any winners by this one.  Politeness (4) was terrific a couple of weeks ago, but can mix her form.  She has not won consecutive races since breaking her maiden status and follow up back in 2013.  From that race Wawail (3) is still trying to find a way through as tiring horses all fell back onto her, she is a winner and can come back and win this.  Ygritte (5) is a feisty customer who can perform well on her day and Bring me the Maid (2) has a terrific first up record.

Selections 3-2-5-4



Quaddie Time

Hoping there still something to play with after six races will have already been decided.  Another difficult challenge with the three big mile races to cover.  Going wide as possible in the first leg and hope we don’t get rolled.  The smaller field in the fillies guineas should let us narrow it down, going with the top 4 but would like to have 4 and 9.  Taking the top 3 in the Guineas, but would like to add the fourth.  As per usual narrow in the last and happy to risk Politeness.

Leg 1 – 1,2,4,7,11,12,13,16

Leg 2 – 1,2,6,7 (4,9)

Leg 3 – 1-6-13

Leg 4 – 2-3

192 Combinations, $30 investment will yield 15.6% of the dividend.



Picking the Hawks was not tough, game blew apart earlier than I expected.  On the neddies there were a three of outright winners.  The quinella was amongst the picks in Moir, with Buffering showing his great qualities holding out my pick Ball of MuscleWinx showed her class in the Epsom providing the first winner, other picks never really got close especially Silverball who was scratched.  Couldn’t get the favourite Speak Fondly beaten in the Flight but the quinella was in the numbers and top selection Pearls running 4th.  The Metropolitan saw a very impressive win by Magic Hurricane who was top pick and James Macdonald’s 5th winner for the day, but none of the others threatened for a prize.  Flemington hosted the Turnbull on Sunday with the Derby winner and top selection Preferment saluting at a juicy Starting Price of $11.

I am sure we will hear the cry for a shorter VRC Derby, but interesting to note how Preferment has come back along with the Oaks winner Set Square who finished third.  But lots of good runs in the race to help us into the rest of the carnival.


Cheers, Sal

Leave a Comment