Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 23 Review/Round 24 Preview

G’day, True Believers. Now, to start with something a  little off-beat. It appears the noise we make has been voted the best in Australia. I can understand that. I’m particularly partial to the Collingwooooood chant the Magpies make close to the end of a successful game. Go to www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-08-19/magpie-australias-favourite-animal-sound-winner-science-week/102735560.

 

Back to business:

 

Not happy with that performance Friday night. The extraordinary thing is that we Lost by only four goals. The margin has been similar in the other recent games we’ve Lost. In the current game, as it is played today, that is a minor margin. Given that we’ve mostly played fairly badly in each of these Losses, I have little doubt we can turn the results around fairly easily. More on that below.

 

Now R23 is not over but the games outstanding shouyldn’t affect us (or Essendon). One more H&A. Okay, I thought we were fixed at the top but that’s not true. It is likely, just not certain. If we were to Lose to Essendon (fairly unlikely given their performance last night) and Brisbane were to Win over St Kilda (likely given the location) next week our Ladder Points would be the same but their percentage would then rise above ours. Right now the Ladder percentages for each team appear the same. Simply put, that is a nonsense; mathematically, to three decimal places, we have the better percentage (do the sums – 123.249% versus 123.203%). Further, Port could also end up with the same Ladder points, but their percentage is significantly lower than ours and Brisbane’s.  What is really interesting are the potential changes in positions 3 and 4 on the Ladder. Melbourne quite possibly could Lose to Hawthorn this weekend and then Lose to Sydney, in Sydney, next week. Carlton face GC, at their home ground, this weekend (Carlton just Won by under a kick) and GWS next week, in Sydney. Anyone want to predict those outcomes? What does it mean? It means that Carlton is a very good chance of finishing 4th on the Ladder, pushing Melbourne out of the Top Four. Carlton’s opponent in Finals Week 1? Us. Other big calls? How about Geelong into the Eight (wrong, now), St Kilda out (also wrong now), Essendon misses out (correct), WB stays in (probable)? Your thoughts?

 

Finals’ footy is different to H&A footy. Mostly, not always, there are no second chances. Because we finished at the top, we, potentially, do have second chances following Weeks 1 and 2. Shouldn’t need them, I hope. We also have home ground advantage. With us, that’s the MCG. With Brisbane that’s the Gabba and we know how much better they are there than everywhere else (except Marvel, of course). Brisbane could get to the GF never having played anywhere but the Gabba. But then there’s the G for the Grannie.

 

What’s your opinion?

 

Go Pies.

Round 23

Collingwood 15.10.100 were defeated by Brisbane 19.10.124.

 

Goals scored:

Q1: 4 (us) / 6 (them) giving them a very handy 12 Point lead;

Q2: 2 / 3, which turned into a 16 Point lead for them at HT;

Q3: 6 / 5, giving us a final change deficit of 12 Points;

Q4: 3 / 5, leading to a 24 Point winning margin; and

Total: 15 / 19. We Lost.

Match Report: www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4976#match-report

Coach’s Report: www.afl.com.au/video/1010960/full-post-match-r23-magpies?videoId=1010960&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1692366892001&references=AFL_MATCH:4976. An interesting interview. He assessed the team pressure had been good (see comments below) but conceded too many defence failures. He lauded the performance by Cox and Pendles to drive the ball forward. He emphasised the team is in the “business of getting better”.

 

New Captain’s Report. www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/1408211/there-were-patches-where-we-connected-maynard?videoId=1408211&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1692365670001. Have a listen to Bruz.

 

Numbers:

 

Measure Statistics Remarks
Disposals 335 / 345 As I said previously, I usually don’t usually rate this number. What it shows, however, with reasonably similar numbers of Contested Possessions between the teams, is that neither side dominated or dictated how the game would be played.
Hit Outs 47 / 43 Happier. Cox taking over significantly changed the Midfield battle.  Cameron showed he is a better Forward Target. Others?
Clearances 39 / 39 This statistic is a surprise. Watching, it seemed they dominated. I suspect this was in key periods. Pre-Cox we were totally beaten; after his arrival, more balance.
    from Centre 17 / 15
    from Stoppages 22 / 24
Inside 50s 47 / 55 A bit of a surprise that this is so close. I expected much greater domination. It shows they got the ball into the 50 more frequently than we did. See below regarding how they used it.
Goals scored 15 / 19 Follows on from Inside 50s.
Scoring Shots 25 / 29 We did move the ball within the 50 occasionally – need much more. We can do more to set the scoring shot from the best position.
Disposal Efficiency 73.1% / 72.5% My observation was that their ball control and passage between players was much higher than ours. It seemed they looked/knew where they were passing the ball whereas we seemed to kick and hope, and were frequently intercepted.
DE Inside 50 57.4% / 56.4% Okay – they got the ball inside the 50 more frequently than us, but they didn’t use it as well. The balance of the two statistics needs to be considered.
Marks 73 / 96 Relates to “keep’ens off” attitude of domination through small kicks and marks, at times. This shows they dominated, generally.
Marks Inside 50 17 / 12 Significant in support of our DE inside 50s advantage.
Tackles Inside 50 5 / 9 Significant in support of DE inside 50s to our detriment.
Players with DE > 80 % 8 / 5
Tackles 76 / 60 Combined, this would indicate the pressure was very similar by both teams. This was not the view I had watching. My impression was that their pressure dominated, they decided how the game would be played and their ball control was much cleaner.
Contested Possessions 126 / 135
1 %’ers 45 / 41
Uncontested Possessions 191 / 204   No significant difference.
Free Kicks 22 / 17 Whatever, these numbers are a surprise.

 

 

Best: The AFL website identifies our Best as Pendles, Mihocek, J.Daicos and Crisp. I would be tempted to add Cox and Maynard. The Midfield dynamic changed when Cox went into the ruck and Cameron moved into the Forward line; both effective moves. And Maynard worked tirelessly – his metres Gained and Clearance numbers warrant his inclusion.

 

Game / Deductions / Lessons.

Not a pleasure to watch. Regardless of the statistics, above, it seemed to me that Brisbane out-hunted us; their hunger was greater; their pressure dominated. There were periods, particularly in the 1st Half, when the ball was in our Half for extended periods, without scoring, and then, suddenly ran the length of the field for an immediate score. We need to get into the pressure-game again.

We had the lead for a few minutes mid Q1  and got close to closing the gap with four unanswered goals to mid Q3. Otherwise, Brisbane were in control.

A couple of specific comments in addition to those included in the Table, above:

  • Our defence, the foundation of our team strength was challenged (as it has been in the other recent Losses). We need to rectify this.
  • We need to work on passing the ball within the 50 to get the ball to better-placed players. We should focus on Goal Assist (GA) statistics in preference to Goals scored;
  • We should kick more to leading forwards rather than high pack-marks;
  • Kick-in’s continue to be too slow and subject to interception. We badly need to fix this. There needs to be a very clear plan on how to execute this. McRae said in his interview that the transition from kick-ins was good. I would, humbly, disagree; and
  • Midfield control is essential to add to our drive from the Backline, not just out of the Centre. Our Midfield did not dominate; it got better with Cox, but didn’t dominate as we know it should.

 

Your views?

Injuries. Ryan (concussion) , Murphy (back) plus Elliott (maybe – no-one is saying anything).

Your comments?

 

 

Round 24

The last H & A. It’s been a long season. That said, shortly after the conclusion of the Finals we will be lamenting the fact that it is over; as we enter the ‘bad times’ before the next Season.

Friday, 25th August – Essendon versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 7.50pm.

This game is between 1st 17W / 4L at 126.7% and 10th 11W / 11L at 92.7%. Current betting: $1.18 / $4.90; we are Favourites, I suspect, because of the Ladder position, not our recent performances plus their abysmal performance yesterday.

 

Them

Essendon, following their departure of their coach (Rutten) late last year while trying to recruit Clarkson, ultimately recruited Brad Scott as their new coach. I think that followed reputed disinterest by Hird in the role. The start of this year Essendon were being touted as, almost certainly, Finalists. And they started with a “bang”. After five Rounds they were sitting 2nd on the Ladder. Their Round 6 Loss to us started a string of Losses moving their position to 9thabout where they stayed for some weeks. These Losses were against us, Geelong, Port and Brisbane – no surprises there. Subsequent Wins from then to their Round 14 Bye were against Richmond, WCE, North and Carlton – also no surprises there, maybe only Carlton a surprise there. So by their Bye they were sitting 6th on the Ladder. Since then they’ve Won and Lost pretty much as you would have expected. Now sitting 9th.

They come into this game after a walloping Loss to GWS by 126 Points yesterday. Before that Wins against North (by 9) and the Eagles (by 1) – neither unexpected apart from how close each was, and Losses to Sydney (by 2) and WB (by 41) – also not unexpected except for how close the Sydney game was. After their performance yesterday you might have expected the team to ‘bounce back’. I suspect we are past that stage. I watched some of their GWS game. They looked like they had given up; fortunately their season is over.

The most recent meetings with the Pies have all been Collingwood Wins, however each has been close – 13 Points (2023 Anzac Day), 4 Points (R19 24 July 2022; and who will ever forget Elliott’s goal after the siren) and 11 Points (2022 Anzac Day). Of interest, our Best against Essendon, among those available and still around, have included De Goey, Mihocek, J.Daicos, Sidebottom, Ginnivan, Elliott, Crisp, Pendles, Howe, Lipinski and Maynard. Their Best from these games I have included in the discussion of Players to Watch, below.

Note the significant focus in the Players to Watch on the Midfield and Backline, particularly Merrett and Langford who both figure in All Australian selections.

 

Players to Watch?

  • Merrett – Centre / RR;
  • Parish – Rover / RR;
  • Redman – BP;
  • Langford – Wing / FF;
  • Ridley – CHB / FB;
  • Martin – Wing / CHF;
  • Draper – Ruck;
  • McGrath – BP / HB;
  • Caldwell – Centre / HF / Rover;
  • Hobbs – RR; and
  • Heppell – BP / HB.

 

Also keep an eye on Weideman – CHF / FF because of the significant Collingwood family connection. I never understood how we didn’t get him under the Father / Son rule.

 

Roles?

  • Close attention to Martin who has been getting significant publicity.
  • Note the emphasis of their Best (Players to Watch, above) on the Midfield. Therefore we need to win the Midfield battle.
  • Opportunities for our defence should be huge.
  • Need to compete for game control through CP / tackles / 1%’ers?

 

Us:

A few suggested changes for us:

  • Team? Suggest a few changes, some required:
  • Out:
  • Ryan – concussion;
  • McCreery – suspension;
  • Murphy (?);
  • Elliott (?);
  • Mitchell (managed);
  • Cameron (managed); and
  • Lipinski.

 

  • In:
  • Cox (run on);
  • De Goey;
  • Hill;
  • McInnes;
  • Macrae (if required); and
  • Carmichael (if required).

 

  • Sub: Markov

 

Your choices / ideas?

  • Structure? Howe back to the Backline in the intercept role. Cox in ruck relieved, as necessary, by Frampton or McStay. Adams to alternate with De Goey in Midfield. Ginnivan and Hill, small Forwards, annoy the Essendon backs – can we play both in the same team?
  • Application? Otherwise no change – Application for four full Quarters. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (Contested Possessions).
  • Game Plan? No change to the current plan – Drive out of the Backline as well as the Midfield. Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than delivering to packs. Crumb around packs. Importantly, I’d like to see the kick-in progress more smoothly out of the Backline – I think speed, planning and preparedness have a lot to do in achieving this.

 

My Picks:

Win by 41 Points. BOG – De Goey – 31 Disposals, 10 Clearances, 6 Tackles and 431 mG. Mihocek gets 4; Elliott, Hill and Ginnivan all get 3.

 

Ground Reports. Loved the Reports from attendees. Let’s see some reporting, please, from those who couldn’t attend but watched the game on TV – all views are welcome. Do we have anyone going? Could you report please? And always Reply to All please?

 

Weather.  Dry and cold. Light rain a couple of days earlier. Plastic boots okay.

 

TV:      Kayo or FOXTEL – Best for every game. I prefer the commentators.

Free to Air TV coverage on 7mate from 7.30pm.

 

Future:

  • Then?
  • Week off: 1 – 3 September;
  • Finals: Week 1 : 7 – 10 September – Qualifying Finals & Elimination Finals;
  • Finals: Week 2: 15 – 16 September – Semi-Finals;
  • Finals: Week 3: 22 – 23 September – Preliminary Finals; and
  • Finals: Grand Final – 30 September.
  • The Ladder. Keep an eye on the Ladder as we approach the Finals. Have a look at recent results and moves. As above, who could have expected a Season to finish like this one? Your thoughts?

 

Other:

  • VFL – The VFL side concluded their H&A season with a 50 Point Win over Southport. I watched the game on-line. It places them 8th on the Ladder. With the Round incomplete it is unlikely that the final games will lead to their movement on the Ladder. The top 10 teams go on to the Finals – not sure how they work. Anyone knows?
  • Anything that you would like to inform our members of, just to all or send it to me.

 

Believe always. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

 

 

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