Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 12 Review, Round 13 Preview
Greetings to all.
What a great match; not at all like 15th versus 16th. More like both were ‘Top Eight’ teams. Always appreciate the four points but it was the style of play, particularly when Adelaide had control of the game in the second quarter, that ensured our endeavour didn’t drop off and we kept fighting.
Having watched a number of the other games this weekend, particularly involving ‘Top Eight’ teams, I think the second half of this season is about to impact hugely on the ladder. Nobody has answered my question as to whether it is mathematically possible to make the ‘Eight’. Does anyone know?
Round 12
Collingwood 12.6.78 defeated Adelaide 10.13.73.
As above, a great game of footy highlighted by two periods – a first quarter where (mostly), the Pies showed what they could do and the rest of the game, where possession moved between the teams but neither side gave up.
Match Report: https://www.afl.com.au/matches/3076#match-report
Really worth watching / listening to with his comments noting the differences between this game and previous games. He noted the foundation of a solid defence providing the platform to attack. He also noted the youth of the team, with six players with fewer than 10 games experience playing.
Extraordinary things we saw by our players:
- Elliott’s come-back. Both his six goals, as the consequence of great passing to a leading forward, but also his leadership within the forward group, freeing up Pendles to move back
- Pendles playing everywhere he was needed – still so calm and cool. Loved him directing traffic while running with the ball avoiding tackles
- Lynch as ruck in his 2nd AFL game – thought he did okay. I still like the idea of bolstering the forward line with Grundy when he comes back
- Bianco’s first goal, this in front of his parents who were unable to attend his first game – many more to come. Do you recall anything?
Some statistics and comments:
- Hit Outs – Ignoring this number as irrelevant.
- Clearances – 31 (us) / 38 (them). Well, we lost that.
- Inside 50s – 44 / 50. And that.
- Disposal Efficiency – 75.4% / 72.3%. But picked up an advantage there.
- Individual Disposal Efficiency – 8 / 7 players with a DE equal to or over 80% and 2 / 2 with an individual DE equal to or under 50%. These numbers are close enough not to be significant.
- Inside 50: Disposal Efficiency – 45.5% / 50.0%, Marks – 15 / 15 and Tackles 8 / 11. Inside 50 they did much better than us (except for the tackles), including working off a significant advantage in Inside 50 numbers.
- Contested possessions – 122 / 142.
- Tackles – 76 / 52. A match when you look at CP plus Tackles.
- Goals – 12 / 10.
- Scoring Shots – 18 / 23. Hmm?
- Winning margin – 5 Points.
So, we substantially lost the Inside 50s and our Disposal Efficiency there was significantly lower. The lower scoring shots emphasises their wastage of opportunities. From a statistical perspective, the numbers really support a win for them.
In relation to the ‘new’ game, we lost the Disposals 334 / 357, Uncontested Possessions 206 / 211 but won Marks 115 / 75. As demonstrated by these numbers, statistically, we lost possession but, across the game, we used it more effectively.
Best: Elliott, Crisp, Pendles, Daicos and Sidebottom. Everyone made contributions. As an example, Darcy Cameron had a quiet game with an unusually low number of Disposals but his defensive action against the Adelaide forwards was fantastic, including those two Contested Marks late in the last quarter.
Lessons from this game that are applicable in the next:
- Application.
- Ball Handling.
- Delivery to the Forwards.
- Tackling and one-on-one.
Plus?
Experts – Nearly everyone (86%) expected an Adelaide win. Go to http://whotippedwhat.com/round/afl-2021-round-12/
Round 13
Collingwood Magpies versus Melbourne.
Monday, 14 June in Sydney at the SCG (The size of that itty bitty, little ground equally disadvantaging both teams), bounce at 3.20.
Them
Melbourne, quite rightly, sit at the top of the ladder. How do they play? Well using their game against Brisbane as a guide, the key statistics from the 1st Half and the 2nd Half were:
- Scores – 1st Half: 5.4 (Melbourne) / 8.6 (Brisbane) // 2nd Half: 9.9 / 3.3;
- Disposals – Brisbane +43 // Melbourne +9;
- Inside 50s – Brisbane + 14 // Melbourne +18;
- Contested Possessions – Brisbane +12 // Melbourne +17;
- Uncontested Possessions – Brisbane +28 // Melbourne +11;
- Tackles – Brisbane + 5 // Melbourne +4; and
- Clearances – Brisbane +6 // Melbourne +10;
Melbourne’s midfield provides the foundation of their drive; see below. In addition, they rely on their very solid defence, which they use as the platform for their attack; no focus on a FF like last week.
Melbourne’s season has included a surprise or two, in particular their solitary loss to Adelaide by 1 point two weeks ago. But their turnaround against Brisbane last week is worthy of closer examination; turning a 3-goal deficit at HT into a 3-goal Win. Not sure why or how Brisbane were shut down – the only statistic that jumps out at me is the Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 – Melbourne – 57.4%; Brisbane – 44.0%. That is a significant difference.
So, from a reasonably even position regarding Inside 50s, Melbourne applied a significant advantage to their scoring. Without Quarter-by-Quarter statistics it is impossible for me to assess, but my best guess is that, fundamentally, Brisbane through their action let Melbourne win. This is definitely not what we want to see by our boys on Queens’ Birthday Monday. Wag supporters of Melbourne have categorised their loss to Adelaide as “the loss they had to have“. Too many pseudo-politicians amongst Melbourne supporters.
Based on their games this year, and their previous games against us in recent years, their best lists identifies players to watch (there’s a lot aren’t there):
- Oliver – Ruck Rover – Midfield foundation of Contested Possession and Disposals;
- Gawn – Ruck – All Australian ruck. Great in the Centre and around the ground;
- Brayshaw – Wing;
- May – FB;
- Petracca – Centre. With Oliver and Gawn, the source of the Midfield drive;
- Langdon – Wing – Injured last week; Not sure if he’ll be playing; and
- Fritsch – FP. Watch for crumbing goals.
And, while not consistently making their Best lists, watch for:
- McDonald – CHF;
- Hibberd – HB;
- Spargo – HF;
- Jordan – Wing; and
- Weideman – FF. Now there’s a familiar name?
Us
Team. No change. Who thought you’d ever see me say that? Actually, with Sier injured (and replaced during the game) expect Mayne back.
Tasks – Petracca and Oliver need close attention. Your thoughts?
Game Plan (same as last week). We need to focus on:
- Application. High intensity commitment for four Quarters. Watch the Contested Possession and Tackle numbers. The chase and tackle must be maintained for four Quarters, and when we tackle, we have to hold on;
- Midfield approach. Lynch – principal ruck and in Grundy’s absence keep Cameron forward in the FF role supported by Mihocek and De Goey and/or Elliott. Alternate De Goey and Elliott into the Midfield;
- Pendles used variously Forward and Back; and
- Winning the Clearances. Dominate Inside 50s to a target, always looking for a better placed goal-kicker.
Conclusion. We should win this. We must control possession and exploit our Inside 50s on the scoreboard.
My picks. Did anyone pick how close my numbers for Elliott BOG last week were? It’s a talent. Against Melbourne, Collingwood to win by 17 Points. BOG – De Goey – 29 Disposals @ 81.9% DE, eight Clearances, six Marks, four Tackles and three Goals; Elliott and Cameron each get three goals. Your thoughts?
Experts. Go to http://whotippedwhat.com/round/afl-2021-round-13/. Check it out later in the week.
Weather. Forecast is for mostly cloudy conditions without rain on the day or beforehand (but it is Sydney. Who knows?). Moulded sole boots okay.
TV. FTA on 7 or 7mate likely including the Big Freeze. Routine for FOXTEL and Kayo.
Other:
- Injuries. Go to https://www.afl.com.au/matches/injury-list.
- Footy Almanac. Go to https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/. Check out others’ comments under this – always interesting.
Go Pies.
Cam
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I don’t think we’ll win this – I’m coming to watch!