Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life – Round 12 Preview

True Believers,greetings.

 

Belief.  A pertinent starting quote, looking forward:

• Michael Christian: “Never give up while it is still mathematically possible (to make the Finals); it’s still mathematically possible so have faith, have belief”.  I agree – Have faith.
• The Season?  3 games outside the 8.  Just try and win this game.  If you want to read the Mid-Season Report Card go to: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-06-08/your-clubsmidyear-report-card-part-one.  An interesting ‘Coach score’, coming in between Carlton (9.5/10) and Freo. (3/10).

 

The Game:

 

Melbourne.  Monday, 13 June (Queen’s Birthday holiday) at the G; bounce: 3.10pm.

 

11th versus 12th (we’re 12th if you need reminding); 87.3% (us) vs 105.1%; Melbourne are 5 and  6; we’re 4 and 7. Closer on the Ladder than some previous weeks.  Both teams are coming off two Losses.  Betting is in their favour ($1.62 to $2.30). Talking of favourites, go to: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-06-06/dees-hit-queens-birthday-as-favourites-for-first-time-in-a-decade.  But we will win.

 

Weather in Melbourne?  Partly cloudy; light winds.  5 to 14 deg.  No rain is forecast, however the surface is still likely to be wet and slippery and the ball will become heavy.  Consider long sleeves and ‘stops’ (no moulded soles).

 

TV – Free to Air; 7mate, from 3.00pm.

 

Them?

 

Melbourne are sitting at 5 and 6, and have been a bit up and down through the season.  They beat GWS in Round 1, Richmond in Round 5 and, most critically, beat us in Round 4; in fact they destroyed us: 102 to 67.  But that was a long time ago, as were the other wins identified.  In the past 5 games they’ve beaten the Gold Coast and Brisbane, then again hasn’t everyone?  They’ve lost to the Bulldogs, Port and Hawthorn with only this last game being reasonably close (82 – 64; maybe as a consequence of the conditions).

 

Roos, as their coach, was earlier in the season getting significant kudos for the team’s performance.  At one stage they were 4 and 4 with a handsome percentage, but that was a while back.

 

Melbourne players to watch for:

• Most influential. Watch for Gawn (ruck), Jones, Viney and Tyson (Mids), Watts at CHF and Hogan at FF.  These players are routinely performing and each of them have made the Team of the Week at some point.  In the difficult conditions last week, likely to be replicated (who knows – Melbourne conditions?) at least in terms of a wet ball and slippery surface, Vince and Tyson were selected for the Team of the Week from a losing side – extraordinary;
• Potential influencers. Both Trengrove and Dawes had their first games back last week after extended injury absences.  Kennedy (dropped last week) had 30 touches and 3 goals in the Two’s game – expect to see him back; and
• ‘Family’ – Our former team members, Dawsey (Forward) and Kennedy and Sam Frost (in the Backline), younger brother (I think I have it the right way round) of ‘our Jack’.

 

Us?

 

Published Thursday night; likely to be finalised later. Should be changes as a consequence of last week’s performance and Buck’s promise.

 

Injury Outs – From last week: None new.  Hope Howe (the only ‘test’ this week) is okay.

 

Legacy from last week: Michael Christian on ‘The Agenda’ – http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/.  Worth watching.  Looks at ruck/control of stoppages and the defensive structure and ‘soft goals’ – some things I’ve commented on.  Also Josh Smith’s ‘non-goal of the year’.

 

In’s: Witts (as always), others from Williams, Goldsack, Phillips (last week in the Two’s: 33 touches, 5 Clearances, 6 Tackles and 3 Goals), Aish (also last week: 25 touches (including 14 contested), 4 Clearances, 7 Tackles and a Goal), Marsh and Caff, probably in that order.  I particularly include Goldsack to provide leadership and control of the Back 6 (or 7).  Williams and Marsh would also provide some sorely missed strength amongst the Backs.  Out’s from White, Goodyear, Tooves and Crocker.

 

Game Plan – What do we have to do to win?  Three things:

• Gain and maintain control of the ball in the Centre, at stoppages and through intercepts.  Focus on control of the Centre and stoppages by both ruck and Mids (combining) and the close-marking of opponents to maintain pressure on our opponents, particularly in marking competitions and / or punching / double-teaming and crumbing;
• Pass the ball between players to leading Forwards.  The criticality of the Game Plan whereby players know where they need to be and what they need to do, and get there and do it.  Forwards leading to allow useful Inside 50 passes (less kick and hope) with pressure from crumbers surrounding the marking pack (decide beforehand who is going to “go up”; not everyone); and
• Kick the goals.

 

Pretty simple, really.

 

Oh yes, and support each other.  Your ideas?

 

An idea.  I, like many others, have been highly critical about the effort / commitment shown by the team recently and, particularly, the management of the Back 6 (or 7, when Bucks added the extra).  To improve this, as suggested last week, select an injured warrior to take the Forward half and another Back to provide encouragement and ongoing guidance and verbal counselling during the game.  Go yell at them.

 

Game Previews?

 

• AFL Match Day Preview – http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2016/12/melb-v-coll – there now.  Their prediction: Melbourne by 28;
• Pies.  Natoli’s ‘Ultimate Preview’ will be on the Pies Home Page at http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/ in the next day or so;
• The Age Preview – Should be at http://www.theage.com.au/afl; and
• Expert Tips – Expert Tips will be at http://www.theage.com.au/afl/expert-tipsters in the next day or so.  I’m not too critical after the last few weeks – I don’t know what is going on either.

 

My Picks? Pies by 11; BOG: Treloar – 28 disposals at 79.0% DE.  Goals to Trav – 5, Cox – 3 and Gault – 3.  Crowd: 61,000 – which will be pretty appalling given the holiday and the supporter base of each club.  Your picks?

 

Other:

• VFL.  Last week, a solid win over Werribee – some individual performances as per my earlier email this week.  This week’s VFL game – Saturday, 11 June vs Casey at Casey Fields;
• Netball and Women’s Footy.  Nothing new; and
• Eddie Watch.  Still quiet.  Always of some concern, when he is quiet.

 

Reporting?  Anyone going?  Ground Reports pls?

 

 

Other – Hawkins report. As per my earlier email this week, I am pleased to see Hawkins reported.  There is some confusion – the MRP release refers to an incident in the Third Quarter whereas the elbow to the back of the neck and punch to the face happened in the Fourth Quarter.  And the elbow to the back of the neck was far more serious than the glancing punch.  Whatever – one week suspension.

 

Next. Bye this coming week. Next on Friday, 24 June – Pies vs Freo at the MCG.

 

Keep the faith. Go Pies.

 

Cam