Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Elimination Final review, Semi Final preview

True Believers, who could have foreseen that? Well, apart from your trusty, always overly-optimistic, truly humble, raconteur?

 

We can win the 2020 Premiership. Have faith.

 

Elimination Final – Collingwood v West Coast Eagles

 

Collingwood 12.4.76 defeated WCE 11.9.75

 

This match launched the boys towards the GF. It provided the opportunity for the team to show what it could do. Well done.

 

Match Report – https://www.afl.com.au/matches/2897#match-report

 

Bucks’ Comments – https://www.afl.com.au/video/514250/bucks-on-grundy-he-s-fully-fit-and-has-been-all-year?videoId=514250&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1601734746001

 

Kelli Underwood’s Offsiders – Go to https://iview.abc.net.au/show/offsiders. My thanks to John, our family Eagles supporter, for his balanced views and the absence of 2018 gloating. He recommended this site. Click on the 04/10/2020 program. This program considers the game with involvement from Caro Wilson, Waleed Aly and Alister Nicholson. They assess the ‘unwinnable’ game against all the odds. I strongly recommend it.

 

 

Statistics. Some numbers really just showing just how similar the teams were:

 

Passage to Goal:

 

Hit Outs – 28 (us)/26 (them). I have some difficulty believing these numbers. I thought Nic Nat won comprehensively against both Grundy and Cameron. See Bucks’ comments, above, regarding Grundy’s extended periods on the bench. Of course, it didn’t matter anyway, because…

 

Clearances – 27/30. In the centre bounces we lost the clearances 8 / 15, leading to a significant numbers of goals (5, actually) for the WCE direct from the centre bounces;

 

Inside 50s – 40/38. Okay, an improvement on each’s clearance numbers;

 

Scoring Shots – 16/20. Whatever; and

 

 

Goals by Quarter:
Q1 – 4 / 1;
Q2 – 2 / 4. Remember that we scored four of the first five goals scored in our previous WCE match. I was worried;
Q3 – 3 / 2;
Q4 – 3 / 4; and
Total – 12 / 11;

 

Why?

 

Disposal Efficiency – 73.0% / 74.0%;
DE inside 50 – 42.5% / 57.9%; and
Players with a DE equal or greater than 80% – 9 / 9;

 

It’s worth relating a number of players’ disposals and disposal efficiency:

 

Treloar – 25 Disposals @ 76.0% DE;
Adams – 24 @ 45.8% (but what a great smother);
Mayne – 18 @ 88.9%;
Pendles – 18 @ 61.1%;
Daicos – 17 @ 82.4%; and
Crisp – 16 @ 56.3%;

 

And comparing a couple:

 

Grundy / Cameron (combined) v Nic Nat – HO: 28/24; Disposals: 19 @ 73.5%/17 @ 58.8%; Clearances: 2/7 – a good day at the office for Nic Nat; and Ryan vs Maynard – 16 @ 87.5%/14 @ 85.7% – pretty close.

 

And how did Kennedy and Darling play? 3 each. See my warning last week.

 

Frees:

 

Free Kicks – 16/12. I didn’t notice this difference. However, it seemed that WCE had a lot of their frees in goal-kicking positions. I reinforce that I have not studied this so it is subject to challenge.

 

Effort:

 

Contested Possessions – 120/109;
Contested marks – 11/13 but….
Marks inside 50 – 7/10;
Turnovers – 56/53;
Tackles – 48/42;
Tackles inside 50 – 7/8; and
1%’ers – 49/49.

 

Best. Adams, Treloar, Mihocek, Cox, Pendles and Mayne. I’d probably add Noble, Quaynor and Greenwood; each played their individual role perfectly.

 

 

Semi Final – Geelong v Collingwood

 

Saturday, October 10 at the Gabba, Brisbane; bounce at 7.40pm (AEDT)

 

This is a Semi Final and the losing side ends their season. The winning side goes onwards and upwards.

 

Match Brief – https://www.afl.com.au/matches/2901

 

 

Them

 

We beat Geelong in Round 7. My comments after this game are at https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/cam-hookes-collingwood-life-round-7-review-round-8-preview/. My preview was very brief as I was away.

 

As I said last week, finals footy is unlike H&A footy and the team with the greater commitment will win. Rarely is it ‘neat & tidy’ footy, but it’s always ‘full on’. Our win over WCE demonstrated this. It will also be essential to defeat Geelong.

 

Geelong deserved to be near the top of the ladder but their most recent performances have been ordinary (let’s go from Port to Port):

 

R12 – Win over Port by 60 Points. There you go;
R13 – Win over Adelaide by 28 Points;
R14 – R15 – Bye;
R16 – Win over Essendon by 66 Points;
R17 – Loss to Richmond by 26 Points;
R18 – Win over Sydney by 6 Points. Not impressive; and
QF – Loss to Port by 16 Points. Relating this to our loss to Port a couple of weeks back, I don’t see any real potential in Geelong’s performance.

 

If Geelong can establish its dominance and perform well from the start it has shown it can produce impressive score results. I am less convinced they can (or will) fight hard for four quarters in a game between similarly capable teams. It’s also interesting that their key players are also aging.

 

Who watch for (not in order)?

 

Dangerfield – Centre/RR. One of the best players on the competition. Geelong have been putting him amongst their forwards. This might be an interesting match for De Goey, though last time he got five goals (Maybe Geelong will tag him with Dangerfield?);

 

Guthrie – Rover;

 

Parfitt – Midfield off the interchange;

 

Ablett – Forward. Very dangerous inside the 50;

 

Selwood – Centre. In my view the most dangerous Geelong player. He was injured very early last time we met however Greenwood has done a great shutdown job on him in the past;

 

Ratugolea – CHF. He was dropped for Geelong’s last game (for some reason). I expect this was because Hawkins has been getting a higher profile in front of goal. I think Ratugolea is the more potent forward particularly linking with Ablett. He can also fill in in the ruck, if needed.

 

Obviously keep a watch on Hawkins, too, and Stanley in the ruck who returned last week after a significant absence.

 

John, David or Andrew, any of you want to comment?

 

 

Us

 

Game Plan:

 

We need to run hard for four quarters starting with the domination of the Midfield. Grundy (supported by Cameron) needs to dominate but the critical statistic is the Clearance advantage;

Tag Selwood – Greenwood;

Our forwards must get into the habit of providing multiple concurrent leads to divide Geelongs’ defence. And look for better positions to kick at goal from;

Back 6. Keep up the good work noting special attention for Ratugolea and Ablett (and Hawkins);

Midfield. De Goey had a great day out the last time we met. Alternate the midfield.

 

Team: No change, though I would be sorely tempted to bring Sier in. Your thoughts?

 

We can win this and progress to the next step.

 

Weather – Partly cloudy with light rain forecast on the day and in the week leading up to it. ‘Stops’; not moulded sole boots.

 

My Picks. Collingwood to Win by 27 Points. BOG – Adams, 29 D, 6 Cl and one goal; Stephenson, Cox and Mihocek each get two goals.

 

Experts – For QF 93% picked WCE to win. For the next go to https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/expert-tips

TV. Go to https://www.afl.com.au/broadcast-guide-premiership

 

Other:

 

Eddie Watch. Quiet.

 

Injuries. Go to https://www.afl.com.au/matches/injury-list

 

Go Pies.

 

 

 

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Comments

  1. Hi Cam

    That was one of the great games of footy. For two hours I was a Pie. (Not this coming week though!)

    Your analysis is as comprehensive as always.

    I thought Buckley did a very good job with the setup early – and Cox hung on to a few. Getting the ball in quickly and directly was key, especially when it was high and in front too.

    When Grundy was a out of sorts, I thought Buckley’s faith in Cameron paid off. Another big tick for the coach.

    Of the younger blokes, I thought Daicos showed he has the class to be a Group 1 performer.

    I thought the Pies players were very positive throughout – best illustrated when Maynard (?) won a contest on the hbf with five minutes to go, could see he had two players 80 metres clear ahead and, knowing the Pies would be away, played on. Only to turn the ball over. But it was that intent which characterised the Pies game (for a neutral looking on).

    As for the Cats this week? Cats fans are very worried. We’ve had an awful month. Outcoached and outplayed v Richmond. Complacent and awful and lucky against Sydney. Nervy, and no flow, against a frenzied, high-pressure Port (who were easily the better side). Amazing that the coach still hasn’t indicated what his best 22 is – and didn’t throughout the season. Crazy to think there could be 3 or 4 changes for the Pies game. Ratugolea must play. I’d play Jordan Clark must play (but he is not in the coach’s good books because he’s a bit loose in the way Ken Hinkley was). Perhaps another young mid-fielder to come in? And what of Josh Jenkins?

    I think the Pies might even be very slight favourites. That’s a view held by many Cats’ fans who are smarting.

    What may hamper the Pies is the impact of quarantine and travel back from Perth. But if spirit is trumps the Pies will take some beating.

    Regards
    JTH

  2. Hard to argue with your analysis Cam. As JTH says, if intent wins, then the Pies will be very hard to knock over.

    I reckon fatigue could play a part. Its been a weird season. Fatigue has never been far away. I thought the Cats looked very fatigued in the last few minutes of the Port game and the Pies in the last few minutes of the Eagles game. But the Pies found a way.

    If Geelong doesn’t select Clark it says a lot about mindset and I will be thinking its all over for us. One player does not make the difference but selection needs to be brave and positive for the Cats.

  3. Frank Taylor says

    Nice one Cam, and terrific comments JTH and Dips.
    Saw Offsiders to, and agreed with all that this game was a fair dinkum cracker!
    Hopefully we can keep it up.
    Personally, I reckon it has been the 1st match since late in the season 2018, that Collingwood properly and fully gelled as a side. And Cameron’s inclusion was an undeniable coaching win.
    Go Pies!
    Frank

  4. Hi Cam,

    Interesting to read these comments after the event. Dips’ observation about fatigue proved to be on the money. Of all the mid-fielders, I wasn’t expecting Simpson to be picked, but it turned out to be an excellent selection as he was pretty solid for a bloke who hasn’t played for two months. He stood up two or three times early.

    Interesting to see what happens around Collingwood in the coming days with the post mortem – and especially with the Pies list.

    Cheers
    JTH

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