There is still much discussion as to why there are no emergencies for the Melbourne Cup but I feel like the 4th emergency that got a last minute opportunity.
While it is akin to Joao Moreira being replaced by Michelle Payne, I have been legged up to take over from Crio who is too busy (?) to be able to produce his usual masterpiece on the upcoming meeting.
Ah, the Melbourne Cup. 35 years ago I had what was at the time my biggest bet. The weight of my money was too much for Dulcify who was galloped on by the subsequent winner and had to be put down. That fairly well encapsulates my association with the “race that stops a nation”. What I have learnt is that the chances of a horse I back become inversely proportional to the amount invested! Surprisingly I haven’t backed one that mistimed the laps or weighed in light. These freak circumstances are generally the domain of Elvis (which you can soon read in his tell-all book “The Stainvita Meter and other catastrophes”).
With Dulcify in the back of my mind and the Azkadellia tragedy still fresh, I can’t embark on tipping with much confidence so I suggest you treat these as I do Crio’s each week (i.e. ignore them).
Not many are good enough to win the Caulfield/ Melbourne Cup double but Greg Carpenter sent out a gilt-edged invitation to the connections of Admire Rakti when he issued a measly 0.5kg penalty for his dominant performance at the Heath. I’m prepared to risk him for a few reasons a) I don’t like backing favourites, b) he’s no longer the hunter and will be watched carefully by all other jockeys in the field who will ensure he gets no favours and c) his best form appears to be when he is fresh. So he can’t win.
Working our way from the top of the market we come to the consistent and outstanding mare, Lucia Valentina. From Light Fingers’ win in 65, it took over 20 years for another mare in Empire Rose to win the big one. Since then we have seen Let’s Elope, Jezabeel, Ethereal and Makybe Diva successful. In the case of most of these, they are built like tanks whereas LV is a lightly frame mare so she is a risk. From barrier 2, I can see her in for a bumpy ride and needing plenty of luck. Looking elsewhere.
Signoff – really? While it would make a great story with Darren Weir giving all the Internationals a taste of a real Aussie larrikin, I don’t see the Lexus form holding up here. Next!
The German invader, Protectionist, finished like a train in his Oz debut at Caulfield, meets Signoff 2kgs better and has the benefit of the outstanding, and in-form, Ryan Moore. He’s only lightly raced, in an astute stable and, like most of the overseas horses, will improve significantly from his first run here. He’s the one! Get on and enjoy the ride!
For desperate trifecta takers, box up Protectionist (5) with 2, 4, 7, 19 and 21.
The support card has traditionally been poor (Cup hurdle, Provincial Plate, etc) though there has been some improvement in recent years. Still heavily weighted in favour of quantity over quality.
Seeing as I have the first leg of the Quaddy sorted we might as well go all the way. (17) Admire Inazuma was well backed at his first start. Include in the 2nd leg here with 2 and 13.
I’m not interested in anything drawn inside 10 for the straight races so for the 3rd leg we’ll throw in 2, 5, 9 and 21.
I’m assuming Girl Guide won’t back up for the last leg so go with 2, 3, 5, 6 and 19.
Let’s hope for a nice day weather-wise and that the punting gods are in a benevolent mood for a change!
Nice one Budge. If Protectionist wins we’ll be sacking Crio and offering you his considerable Almanac tipping stipend. Sieg Heil.
Does young Tom do racing tips also, or is he only a round ball man? (Sensibly).
Tom does tips alright. He and my boy spent about an hour working out their quaddies on Derby day only to get tossed out in the first leg! Probably a blessing!
Budge I can go one better with the Cup selection. My only winner or place getter was in 1967 during my Nasho Service before being sent o/s
However the ever reliable “management Committee” is far superior and is yet to declare her choice – and there is nothing in Adelaide to get excited about
Love it Budge..the Stainvita meter…what’s the Three Crowns or Bell Flight equivalent?
Ironic that an import is named Protectionist, undoubtedly after another pending foreign victory, that’s exactly what’s the xenophobes will be screaming for.
will watch my dyslexic 23k double salute , Sign Off in the Caulfield into Admire Rakti in the Melbourne…yep!
will dip the toe into the enormous exotic pools and play with the Tri’s.
Love one in the 5th, Fantasy Eight, going to be anything this thing.
They can get up at any old odds on Cup and Oaks day so willing to listen to all theories. What’s the back story on Fantasy Eight – sounds like a porno!
I see you’re onto Araldo.
I’m putting in My Ambivalent #14 . It’s a well performed WFA horse.
Mutual Regard’s win in Ebor Hcp was good. Looked under pressure, then found another gear and pulled away at the finish.
Fawkner is in the top four of any race he contests.
Will risk Protectionist. Maybe next year with him. Really good horses step off the plane and pump the Herbert Power/Geelong Cup/Lexus grade opposition.
Apparently even Hitler is disillusioned by the Aussies horses in the big races but surely he’d be happy to see the German horse get home in the big one!
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152475350287945&set=vb.22015212944&type=2&theater
Watch Fantasy Eight’s debut at Cranbourne, Budgerio. 7/1 wont last long.
Yep – just watched it. Goes well but up against a few decent types and drawn in a bit for my liking.
http://www.racing.com/form/2014-11-04/flemington/race/5
Home from Frankston’s fashionistas day at Mornington where we took a belting. Great preview Budge but don’t get too comfortable!
As a grumpy old thing I’ve avoided betting in Derby or Cup over the years – too many variables…there’s a reason they pay well – it is called the Powerball clause!
However, my offspring has insinuated that I lighten up and be involved – the hint is that it is unAustralian to not have a nibble. If that’s all I need to do to be a patriot, I’ll give it a test this year.
OS horses are superior stayers but I hate backing unknowns – maybe the us v them bet would be a good market.
Lucia Valentina is classic old form – Turnbull, placed in CC, lightweight.
Who Shot Thebarman is great NZ staying form and has also got HQ tick.
So, without any study nor confidence, I’m boxing Admire Rakti, Lucia and the Shooter.
Also, yesterdays’ age had a p10 piece on the great Wally Beaver…
http://www.theage.com.au/sport/horseracing/wally-beaver-doubles-bookmaker-set-to-leave-racing-after-51-years-20141031-11dq1j.html
Breeders’ Cup coverage starting now – no humble hyperbole here!
Mutual Regard is the Irish “joke” horse this year. Good weight, good barrier, great jockey, dodgy Irish trainer. Perfect.
Fantasy Eight scratched. Will probably be running Oaks Day.
Yep skip, definitely going around oaks day, strange move, will now have to contend with Eloping.
Magnificent Cup lunch today – dare any others to match our key speakers. Well done!
MR2 No1
Brio,
Good on ya old mate for putting your hand up to temporarily fill some pretty, pretty big shoes. Great job too. Entertaining read.
As for the “Race that stops a nation” I’ve been a spectator of that race for years now so one might imagine I could find a winner, but alas, Na.
The support card is unknown to me. I reckon they will get up without names.
I think the toppy wins. By all accounts he will relish Flemington. I will be having him as a banker with a number to run the drum. I give Protectionist a chance also along with Mutual Reward, Cavalryman and Fawkner, who is going to be in the first half dozen from the jump, and can quicken. He has been really good this prep.
Hard to knock the fave but I gave it a shot!
Thought you’d be able to come up with some exotic selections in the support card. Surely there’s one down from Queensland whose 5th dam is by Bernborough?
Budge,
Alas no. But to satisfy your thirst, Perth Cup winner Black Tycoon is ready to find form in the 3rd and the 7th dam of Willing Foe in the Cup is a half sister to the 3rd dam of Northern Dancer.
Eagerly awaiting release of Elvis’ memoirs “the Stainvita Meter”, surely with an XXX rating and I want a right of reply in any reference to me.
Stay clear of Perth horses until Ascot (WA) in December they don’t win unless they are full of juice.
I’m pinning my hopes on an Aussie quinella ( stupidly most likely) but Lucia Valentina and Fawkner for me with plenty of visitors in for exotics.
Very keen on Thermal Current in the 9th and Belle De Coeur in the last .
I’m keen on Thermal Current too. Especially now Phelan Ready is scratched. Got him in my daily double.
You da man! Good call on Admire Rakti also.
There was a slow out for the toppy on course, but that was ridiculous!
Lucia backed for a stack and old Precedence 100/1 in and ran boldly.
Save the money for Saturday.
My effort was J.Cassidy in the last – gee I’m finding some seconds.
Thanks Skip. I don’t think I could have been more authoritative in my tip. Hope a few followed the lead.
Clearly I’ll have to return next year to defend my unbeaten record in the Cup on this site.
lock it in. Well done.