What better venue to host this year’s State of Origin decider than The Cauldron, Brisbane’s Lang Park, the best rugby league venue in the country? It will be packed to the rafters and rocking tonight for what promises to be an epic encounter featuring contrasting mentalities and game plans. History tells us that NSW has not won a decider at The Cauldron for almost 20 years, that the team winning Game 1 has gone on to win the series 75% of the time, and that after winning Game 1 in Sydney, the Maroons have gone on to win 7 series against only one loss. History favours Queensland to win tonight…but history is not the be all and end all of Origin footy.
If we go back to Game 2, NSW thumped Queensland up the middle, on the edges and out wide in a blistering 35 minutes of football to have the game wrapped up by the break. Sure, Queensland won the second half 18-4 but they were still on the losing side in the physical contest, even if to a lesser extent. And it is that particular piece of recent history that, I think, will frame tonight’s contest.
The Blues will set out to produce more of the same – to be too big, too physical, too strong, too fast, too good. And the sooner they impose themselves the better because that approach will result in points on the board with the consequent effect that the boisterous home crowd will be taken out of the equation. It will be a case of again using their big, mobile and aggressive pack to run over the top of the Maroons to put them on the back foot and thus allow time and space for Moses to pick and choose his options in attack in terms of both method and personnel. And what an array of personnel to have available! In essence, it’s a very simple plan with the right players selected in the right positions and roles to execute it. Why change a winning formula, especially when you think you’ve got the opposition in a defensive frame of mind even before the game starts? Advantage NSW.
What will Queensland do? First and foremost, they will draw on mythology and ethos, the ‘Queenslander’ spirit, siege mentality, David v Goliath, etc. Secondly, they will draw on their individual and team pride as they try to redeem themselves individually and collectively in front of their home crowd after the debacle that was Melbourne. Thirdly, they will remember that in the second half of Game 2 they not only won on the scoreboard but also showed that the Blues were vulnerable when the Maroons got up in their faces and niggled. Fourthly, the Maroons will scrap, scrounge and snipe, niggle and nag, grind and grift, contest and compete.
As far as style of play is concerned, the team selections point in two particular directions. Capewell in the forwards and Gagai in the backs suggest a stiffening of defence capabilities against the big bodies coming at them. (I tip Gagai to be huge – the only way he knows how to play in Origin.) Then the choice of multiple playmakers in Hunt, DCE, Dearden, Grant, Walsh and Ponga suggests that their attack will aim to be multi-pronged, relentless, fast and elusive to run between and around their opponents with flash and flair to tire them out and create gaps and channels.
As with all the big games in rugby league, the game will be won or lost in the forwards and defending on the goal-line. Form suggests that NSW have the edge in both areas; history suggests that the Maroons have both the character and the capacity to overcome perceived deficiencies and prevail. As I said, we’re in for a cracker of a game.
Queensland by <6.
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A former teacher with a (very) modest sporting CV enjoying his retirement years. A Queenslander through and through, especially when it comes to cricket and rugby league. Enjoys travel, coffee and cake, reading, McWilliam’s Cream Apera and a glass or three of wine. Footy Almanac’s Thursday online editor who moonlights as a hobby editor.
looking forward to an Almanac MCG tour reunion with JTH at the Tanunda Club for the decider –
QUEENSLANDER