Almanac Rugby League – 2022 NRL Round 19: Finals spots on the line

 

 

Round 18 of the NRL season played out pretty much according to my predictions – with one exception. The Raiders continued their good run against the Storm in Melbourne notching up their fourth win in a row at AAMI Park. In doing so, Canberra kept its slim finals hopes alive while the Storm slipped to 4th and copped another major injury with Ryan Papenhuyzen likely to be out for the season with a knee in jury.

 

The Roosters loom ominously just out of the top eight but will have to come from the bottom half of the finalists to win the comp. – a very big ask. That’s if they make the finals. The Sharks were the big winners from the weekend and now sit equal second with the Cowboys and a game clear of the three teams in equal fourth (Storm, Broncos and Eels). The Sea Eagles are finding ways to win without Tom Trbojevic and the Rabbitohs showed both grit and flair to beat the rejuvenated Bulldogs.

 

So what does the draw for the rest of the season tell us? The Panthers sit four games clear at the top of the ladder and, even though they play six games against probable or potential finalists in the coming weeks, only need a couple wins to cement top spot. The Cowboys have several very winnable matches in the run home and should secure second or third spot. Likewise, the Sharks have a reasonable spread of opponents and look likely to lock in a top four spot. The Storm are in a rut and have a tough string of games ahead. If they can’t regain form very soon, they may well drop out of the top four even though they are pretty safe for a finals berth.

 

The Broncos have a 50/50 draw ahead of them and, with about three wins needed, will make the finals but are probably at long odds for a top four spot. The Eels have a tough run home with all but one game against finalists. They’ll need to show more consistency than they have over the last month to have any chance of a top four finish. But if the Storm stutter, then Parra are in with a chance. The Rabbitohs have the toughest draw of all with only one game against a bottom half of the ladder opponent. Finalists? Probably. Top four? Doubtful. They need to stay focussed and win possibly 5 or 6 of their remaining games to have any chance of a top four spot. Of the current top eight, the Sea Eagles are the most vulnerable but have a draw that says, ‘if you’re good enough, you’re good enough’. Somehow they have to stay above the Roosters and there’s only one way to do that – keep winning. I think they’ll fall just short as I’m not convinced that they have sufficient steel to put a winning run together.

 

It won’t be easy for the Roosters either as they mostly play teams above them so a finals spot is probable but the top four won’t happen. But I’d rate them the most dangerous team to face in the coming weeks and will back them to get into the eight. The Dragons have five matches against teams who are genuine contenders and I just cannot see them stringing together enough suitably strong performances to hold on to a finals spot. The Raiders have enough winnable games to sneak into eighth position but need to find the same form they showed against the Storm every week to achieve that goal. I think they’ll fall one game short and we’ll all go back to the conclusion of that match against the Dragons and think about might have been.

 

So, at this stage, my prediction is that the only change to the current ladder will be Sea Eagles out, Roosters in with positions 5-8 fluid.

 

On to this weekend’s Round 19 and it should be a cracker! It starts tonight with the Eels (6th) v Broncos (5th) with a top four spot on offer should the Storm stumble on Saturday night. Talk about a crucial result! They both have their Origin players back (bar Cobbo for the Broncos), look evenly matched on paper, they’re separated by a mere 25 points differential on the ladder, and both have shown some good recent form. My gut feeling is that the Eels look a bit more settled, have Moses and Brown in great form, and have home advantage. That’ll do me.

 

Tomorrow evening the Dragons host the Sea Eagles where a loss will put the Dragons two games out of the top eight and, basically, end their season. Manly have to win to keep the Roosters at bay for 8th spot on the ladder. So another key match in the context of the season. Looking at the teams, I’m left with the feeling that two factors will decide this one. Firstly, will Zac Lomax concentrate on playing to his talents? Secondly, I think Manly’s bench looks better with Walker, Schuster and Taupau itching to rumble when they come into play. I’ve said for some time that the Dragons are pretenders – here’s their opportunity to prove me wrong. I’ll go with the Sea Eagles.

 

Tomorrow night it’s the Knights hosting the Roosters. We know that the Roosters simply have to win to stay alive for the season. The Knights are playing for pride and, on paper, have the capacity to be finals spoilers. But with Luke Keary returning to add to the team’s recent ominous form, I can’t see any other result but a win for the men from Bondi. (Does that phrase have a familiar ring?)

 

On Saturday afternoon it’s the Raiders v the Warriors. There was a lot to like about Canberra last weekend and I think they’ll win this one comfortably, even without the suspended Jordan Rapana. The Warriors will be honest but the benching of Reece Walsh seems odd, to say the least. Internal issues?

 

In the twilight game, Penrith v the Sharks should be a mighty battle. Both are at full strength, the stakes are high for Cronulla as they seek to defend their top four spot, and the Panthers will be looking to continue their domination of the competition. As much as the Sharks have been the most improved team in the last month or so, I just can’t go past the all-conquering Panthers, the form side of the past two seasons. But what a battle it promises to be!

 

Then the Rabbitohs host the Storm in yet another crucial game. At their best the Bunnies are a slick, flowing unit capable of putting on a pile of points in the blink of an eye. But they’re also vulnerable to a bit of gamesmanship. And which team is probably the benchmark for gamesmanship? Melbourne Storm. Bellamy will have scoured his bag of tricks this week to try to find the tactics to unsettle Souths and get the Storm back on the list of winners. I think it starts with Cody Walker v Cameron Munster and ends with the degree of influence Latrell Mitchell is allowed to impose on the game. It’s a toss of a coin to pick a winner here and I’m not sure just why but I’ll go with the Rabbitohs.

 

On Sunday it’s the Bulldogs (14th) at home to the Titans (15th) but the outcome is still very important to both sides. It’s a chance for the Bulldogs to continue their late season improvement and build towards 2023; for the Titans, it’s a last chance saloon to demonstrate that they are better than their lowly ladder position. It might also be coach Holbrook’s last chance to salvage his position. I’ll go with the Dogs.

 

Finally, the second placed Cowboys host the last placed Wests Tigers in what looks like the mismatch of the round. Methinks it’s simply a matter of the margin. Cowboys – by a lot.

 

So my winners this week are the Eels, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Raiders, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Bulldogs and Cowboys.

 

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About Ian Hauser

A relaxed, Noosa-based retiree with a (very) modest sporting CV. A loyal Queenslander, especially when it comes to cricket and rugby league. Enjoys travel, coffee and cake, reading, and has been known to appreciate a glass or three of wine. One of Footy Almanac's online editors who enjoys the occasional editing opportunity to assist aspiring writers.

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