Almanac Racing – Cup Day at Caulfield

The Caulfield Cup might not have the star status of some previous editions but this Saturday’s support cast shines brightly and, with fine weather forecast, it should be a bumper day at The Heath.

Here are some of the anticipated highlight races and early selections:-

It’s a long day but I’d be tempted to get there for the third @1.25pm (MR3, 1100m, F+M, SWP, Listed). They’ll scoot along in this hot race named for one I really enjoyed, Alinghi. I’m an Almighty Girl fan and she owes me. Here’s where I get square. Big watch on Flippant.

The fifth is the old Norman Robinson (MR5, 2000m, 3yo, SW, G3), a Derby lead-up which they’ve rejigged a bit recently but have now returned to the Saturday post. Seaburge (1) is the obvious tip after a slashing Guineas performance. The main worry for me is his backing-up off the really hard track last week. Plenty of opponents will fancy themselves stepping up to a staying trip. Hayes’ filly (and the toppy’s stablemate) is an interesting acceptor with a big upside. Don’t know why she’s not accepting for the Ethereal (MR4, 2000m, 3yoF, SWP, G3). Maybe the stable reckons Sebring Dream (barrier 13) has her covered?

I’ve settled on It’s Somewhat without any great confidence in a pretty modest Coongy (MR6, 2000m, H’cp, G3).

My loyalty to First Seal has been over-stretched. I’m happy just to watch her go around in the Tristarc (MR7, 1400m, Mares, SWP, G2) but can’t reopen my wallet again until she finds the line.

The Caulfield Cup (MR8, 2400m, H’cp, G1) is a time-honoured Handicap and, on all the historical criteria, Jameka (11) wins. No spoils, though, at about 9/4 and I don’t like backing anything that’s competing above the allotment (N.Hall ½ over). Ones I might’ve considered as specs, Tally and maybe Preferment, have drawn poorly. If you must go wide, look for ones not jarred by recent “roads” but able to handle the inevitable unforgiving surface this week. However, if forced to declare – Fav wins.

The Sprint’s a beauty (MR9, 1000m, Hcp, G2). Wild Rain (4) for me at the weights.

The last’s a typical raffle (MR10, 1400m, SWP, G3). Takedown (4) failed at his only try here but I’m happy to be with him in this. Nervous about Voodoo Lad. I’ve rated him a G1 horse and slated C.Parnham’s “effort” last start. B.Rawiller replaces. “Must include”!

Reckon the punters will sort them out again as they’ve been “running straight” at Caulfield to the bookies’ cost. Not a lot of value recommended but sometimes you have to just find and play winners.

My lamentable trot has turned – as mentioned on the comments last Sunday morning, I thought Verstappen was the best bet at Cranbourne that arvo. He drifted but won easily. I was on…and the rest of the races were abandoned in the gale force winds. Thus I’m claiming to have backed the card. Peaking just at the right time!

Good luck.

 

 

 

Comments

  1. We’re of to Wodonga tomorrow. 6 race card, TAB meeting. The main race for us sis the last the Kelsey watts memorial handicap. It’s named after a friends sister, who sadly passed away at a young age due to Ovarian cancer. The Border Ovarian Cancer foundation raised circa #$15,000 on this race in 2015, aiming for $20,00 this year. It’ll be a big day.

    There’s a bit of racing around the border this weekend . On Saturday there’s a TAB meeting in Wagga, also the non TAB Deniliquin Cup. Sunday they’re running in Echuca, with more racing in Narrandera on Monday. Let’s hope the rain keeps away for these days!

    I’d be remiss not to mention the Avoca Cup on Saturday. Another nice track.

    Glen!

  2. Avoca’s great. Perfect weather for a big weekend up there. It kicks off tonight with a Calcutta – $30p/h with a spit roast and the great D.K.Weir as speaker, commemorating the 21st Anniversary of his first winner
    https://www.facebook.com/events/1101968749839551

  3. Going wide in the Cup with Set Square as my roughie because of it’s good runs previous to its last one which I’m forgiving as Hartnell raced basically one out one back and went home in 34 seconds so nothing was ever going to make ground. I just think its not the best field and like the odds, also throwing Preferment in the trifectas as he was OK in the Turnbull.
    Other races:
    Race 3 Vezalay
    Race 5 Rocketeer
    Race 7 First Seal
    Race 9 Viddora at good odds, 2nd the heatherly is pretty good form and has no weight
    In Adel
    Race 5 Proud Eagle ew should be speed in this race so is suited
    Race 7 Dylanson goes well fresh, Benz hard to beat but right up in standard
    Race 8 Trueno, I’ve been waiting for him to get a dry track in a race with speed on and this is ideal.

  4. Jock, spoke to Jimmy Smith yesterday and he was bullish about Proud Eagle. Any odds?

  5. And what’s the go in Melbourne. Only bet in odd numbered races. Gone all superstitious now?

  6. Happy to be with Our Ivanhowe at the price. Handicap form is pretty good and he still owes me from last year! Have good mail for Sir Isaac Newton and will be putting De Little Engine in trifectas on the minimum but really the fave should win barring accidents.

  7. Now can some one update me on Brian Cox ? The decision on him was meant to come down at the end of September. he has horses running today in Deniliquin and Wodonga.

    Anyone know what’s taking place here?

    Glen!

  8. Budge,
    Re odd number races I think I’m subconsciously channelling one of Elvis’ roulette theories ( swap red/black for odds/evens)
    Proud Eagle is double figure odds -$17 sportsbet and Gatt rides, recent form really good but has had issues with slowly run races which is unlikely to be the case today, Good to know the stable is keen. Refer to Roger for the impact of various gear changes.

  9. Caul Cup…

    Far too short Jameka, her race could be over by the 1st turn if she doesn’t get in. Her and Real Love far too close to the imports on weights! Pace should be genuine enough though with Scottish, Go Dreaming and Tally going forward, that may allow her to get in.

    Main chances look to be Sacred Master, Sir Isaac Newton, Scottish and Exosphere (glue on shoes a query?). Roughies with hopes….De Little Engine and Preferment.

    Hellbent short but looks winner, Our Boy Malachi only other one I could back in the race.

    Good luck!

  10. alternate cup view https://www.punters.com.au/news/Hitler-previews-the-2016-Caulfield-Cup_154331/ and he come up with a well tried backup plan

  11. jock, budge…

    You can get $23 Proud Eagle!

  12. No love for Lankan Rupee? Getting to silly odds. Would smash these if half ready.

  13. Peter Flynn says:

    I’m at Ascot today Crio.

    Amazing card Champions Day.

    PF

  14. Flynny, is it a target meeting now or an afterthought?

  15. btw – Octagonal has passed on. Not just a ripper horse but a part of so many stirring finishes with other top quality opponents. The Big O invariably found the line.

  16. Peter Flynn says:

    That was some meeting.

    We cleaned up.

    Order of St George failed to back up from the Arc.

    Found came 2nd for the 6th time in 7 starts.

    Minding is one of the great milers. Clash with Ribchester was the highlight.

    PF

  17. and everyone got the Caulfield quaddie again.

  18. Yeah John. Bookies cast.
    Some surprising odds – I do my estimates Wednesday so can often be wrong.
    Thought Jameka would be 9/4 and no value…7/2!
    Similarly was not going to spend on First Seal, thinking it a marginal 2nd fav behing Tycoon. But $8!
    The last I thought might be equal favs but Weiry’s was absolutely “off the map” and won accordingly. 6/4 and shrinking.

    Flynny, it must be a terrific day’s racing but it’s awkwardly just after the Arc which is really the GF for so many.

  19. Octagonal was a beauty. Except when they put Shane Scriven on him and he lost the VRC Derby…oh well.. punting!

  20. Intriguing day at Wodonga on Saturday. A big crowd meant friends involved in the Border Ovarian Cancer foundation raised more than the $15,000 the previous year. Congrats H, Tamba, Jude, etc.

    It was good seeing Subzero wandering around. He’s 28 now. Fair Dinkum he looks better than I did at 28 !

    On track R 2 saw the roughie of the day, earthling, salute at $201.00. It pig rooted in the mounting yard throwing Lee Smith the hoop, needed a vets check then flew home to win. You wouldn’t have backed it with stolen money!

    Yep, it ‘s a mugs game.

    Happy Punting,

    Glen!

Leave a Comment

*