Almanac Melbourne Cup: The time-honoured trifecta think-tank and other absurdities

 

 

 

 

The Footy Almanac 2023 Melbourne Cup Trifecta

 

A small group of Almanac punters from around The Nation took full advantage of the wonders of technology and met for 90 minutes on Cup Eve, via Teams, to discuss The Cup, build a trifecta and draw the sweep.

Nank and Rosemary joined us from the Liverpool Plains, along with their great friend Elizabeth, who had been in discussions with her turf accountant. In the good old days she’d have said that this mathematician cum banker cum satchel slinger had marked her book. Nank told us the girls had taken a lid off something in the lead up to the Teams meeting which may have happened before scones were served in the homestead. Nank played the role of farmer magnificently, whinging about the yield and the lack of rain but thanking the Lord he didn’t live in Gunnedah (for reasons I now forget).

Roger joined us from the leafy avenues of The Pivot. He offers the same contribution each year, a superbly crafted comedic routine which features his purely delivered “Is it on?” And, “I can’t see them.” And “Darl, I’ve done something.” And “Darl, can you come here.” It’s the sheer panic in his face that is so amusing it sets the tone for what follows. He has the appearance of a Grade 3 boy who’s been dropped off at the front gate of a boarding school.

This certainly made Daryl laugh in his study, there in the foothills of the Loftys. And it made the rest of us smile in nodding recognition of a fine thespian. P. Flynn was trying to keep his bosses happy by appearing to work, his professional duties served on the basis of antipodean hours. And Smokie was Down the Beach on the Ship wreck Coast having just come from the happy hour at the local pub.

The Liverpool Plains contingent was also trying to cook. They had various laptops set up creating that reverberating feedback of the dance hall when the MC grabs the mic in that scene in Strictly Ballrooom. Technical suggestions came thick and fast and the problem was alleviated enough for us to hear the analysis of the turf accountant. Six horses featured in the analysis but two were lost in the waves of feedback so the one thing we were confident of was that the wavelength of the interference was precisely three horse assessments. The four horses that we did hear about were 3, 4, 5 and 7 with the clearest and most sensible references, and also the most enthusiastic, coming for number 7. “Absurde, because life is absurd,” was heard numerous times and amid the sound of corks popping and pans sizzling in the background, wafted the chorus from Rosemary and Nank, “It is absurd.”

The evidence was among us. If you think about what we were actually doing. Discussing a horse race.

Roger, who had composed himself, then proceeded to play another role, that of experienced punter. After he explained why the favourite Vauban couldn’t win, he gave us his three certainties: that the connections of Vauban would complain about the state of the firm track, that a discussion about why in the 21^st century the TAB can’t facilitate emergencies in The Cup given that Cleveland had already been scratched at that the Melbourne Public Transport System would fail. The final element was seen as the deep-seated Melbourne-Geelong rivalry that was spawned in the 1840s, rightly.

When Roger proposed 3,7 and 4 you could sense the excitement in P. Flynn who started muttering about Venn diagrams and sets which went beyond intersecting to become sub.

Smoke also liked 4 and 7 with Serpentine, number 18, also in his thoughts.

Daryl was watching it all unfold. He had no tip, until pressed, and he opted for the 4.

Matt O’Hanlon had sent funds down from the Gold Coast but was unable to join the prognostications – probably because his happy hour was still going, in the absence of daylight savings. Matt’s name was drawn out of the lettuce-spinner (which is how we created and fair and equitable system for randomness) and he will choose the charity should our portfolio of bets prove profitable.

I argued the case for a binary Cup. The class horses high in the weights, and the long list of roughies from about number 9 down. To illustrate, I pointed out the form of Daqiantsweet Junior which has excellent 3200m form having won the Adelaide Cup, run third in the Sydney Cup and finished sixth in The Cup last year. There was no comment from around the nation. My numbers are 5,12,3 and 1.

1. Flynn follows the international form very closely and always has an eye on the Geelong Cup. He likes the favourite and Absurde but the Geelong Cup run of More Felons did catch that eye. I think Gold Trip was mentioned too.

So, the trifectas fell into place thanks to Mr Venn. They are:

3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 7 12 15 18 20
1 3 4 5 7 12 15 18 20
for $100

And

3 4 5 7
3 4 5 7
Field

For $80

 

And a First 4

3 4 5 7 boxed for $20

 

 

The sweep

1. MOH
2. Harms family
3. Liverpool Plains (first)
4. Liverpool Plains
5. Harms Family
6. Smokie (second)
   
7. MOH
8. Flynn
9. Harms Family
10. Scratched
11. Roger
12. Harms Family
13. Flynn
14. Smokie (third)
    
15. Roger
16. Harms Family
17. Harms Family
18. Harms Family
19. MOH
20. Flynn
21. Daryl Schramm
22. Smokie
23. MOH
24. Liverpool Plains

 

First:       $140
Second:   $60
Third:    $30

 

Good punting

JTH