Almanac Horse Racing – Caulfield Cup Preview: A Youngstar is born

Greetings All,

 

It was a long ten days interspersed with a handy race meeting, the AFL trades are finally over.  The key question being when will we get the first report of a prospective move at the end of the 2019 season?  Suspect it will come just before the first test starts!  Would be earlier except we will get the fixture just prior to Derby Day.  Why there is ten days of dancing is just ludicrous. Surely there is enough courting beforehand that three days would be sufficient to pull everything together.

 

The cricket is a tough watch and the races might be too if you want locally trained horses to be successful.  The last couple of weeks have seen the visitors come to the fore with Jungle Cat, Benbatl and Yucatan saluting.  The unknown form makes it harder to find a winner, it does enhance the racing, if only the breeders would get on board and start putting a bit of stoutness in the racing stock!  Why would they with $13M up for grabs in The Everest and the riches of the 2YO “Classics”.

 

What can’t be denied is what a great program Guineas Day delivered.  The question to come from that being, if anyone but CJW trained The Autumn Sun would they have a crack at Winx in the Cox Plate?  Could not cop the controlling owner John Messara saying he wouldn’t want to “shoot Bambi”.  We have all loved the Winx ride and story, similar to that of Black Caviar.  What we don’t like is the lack of opposition she faces because the other trainers won’t take her on.  With or without The Autumn Sun, Benbatl and Blair House will hopefully present serious opposition!

 

All these questions and issues can be addressed at the Footy Almanac’s famous Cup Eve Lunch always informative with Greg Carpenter there to provide a handicapper’s insight to the big race.

 

Monday November 5 – Melbourne Cup Eve Lunch North Fitzroy Arms Cnr Rae St and Reid St, North Fitzroy Featuring Greg Carpenter (Executive General Manager and Chief Handicapper, Racing Victoria) 12.30 for 1pm $50 – 3 Courses with Refreshments over the bar rsvp@footyalmanac.com.au or respond to this email and I’ll pull a table together.

 

 

Navel Gazing

 

Found the winner of The Everest Redzel as second pick, actually promoted him on the day with the bottomless track but my record has to go with the written word.  In the lead ups I suggested there is only value in a win and Sunlight delivered that and was the only result in the lead up races before the big ones.  In the Thousand Guineas we found out that Smart Melody didn’t go the mile, Amphitrite got a mention but not a selection – she did overcome the bad barrier for a great win.  Second pick Land of Plenty nailed the Toorak with Hartnell again running a terrific race.  The Caulfield Stakes was a ripping renewal, did not have Benbatl (even in the Quaddie) but the placings were among the selections, then the Guineas was pretty easy selecting 1^st and 3^rd but not the one in between.

 

Caulfield Cup Day

 

Another ten race marathon, not quite the spread of quality compared to Guineas but a mighty feature race that makes up for it.  The supporting card though does have a couple of important races especially in the leadup to the Derby and Oaks.  Let’s look at the big one first before tearing apart the rest.

 

Race 8 – The Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, HCP)

 

The large number of international runners does make it tough to assess and where they all fit.  Has not really affected my top two – 2^nd and 3^rd close to Winx is pretty good form for mine.  Youngstar (18) has much in common with Jameeka who won the cup in 2016 coming off a great run in the Turnbull.  Jameeka’s record was probably better but she also carried 3kg more than Youngstar (18).  That overtook my longer term top two selections, Kings Will Dream (14) was top pick till she came along.  Still well treated by Mr Carpenter this has been a long term target for DKW.  Putting an international in between for next with Best Solution (1), has won his last three, might be top weight but is too used lugging 60kg.  Night’s Watch (17) has been progressive and earned his spot.  Loves the track, untried at the distance and barrier might be a challenge.  Next best The Cliffsofmoher (2) – great run last week and stepping up to a favourable journey.

 

Selections -18-14-1-17-2-3-6-16-8-11

 

We open with Khulaasa (R1,#1) coming back to race against the fillies after being very competitive against the boys at Flemington.  The boys that beat her front up in the Gothic Stakes – going around them with the undefeated Yulong January (R2, #3).

 

Race 3 – Caulfield Sprint (G2, 1000m, HCP)

 

Question mark over all the favoured runners all coming back in distance from either 1100 or 1200m, just think they are the best in the field.  Father and son Snowden certainly know their craft around sprinters as Redzel proved last week, they will have Spending to Win (4) ready to win again.  Eduardo (8) does meet him on 1.5kg better terms from their recent encounter.  Bons Away (3) and Quillista (2) are quality sprinters ready to produce their best.

 

Selections – 4-8-3-2

 

From Within (R4, #3) from Queensland brings in picket fence form for the Alinghi Stakes – think though that Soothing (R4, #5) with JMac aboard might restart her picket fence.

 

Race 5 – Ethereal Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3yo Fillies SWP)

 

The Fillies stretch out to 2000m on trial for the Oaks, Verry Elleegant (6) was close to Amphitrite in the Edward Manifold that is very good form for this.  Yulong Meteor (8) and Greysful Glamour (2) were the first two home in the Oaks Trial suspect they will be right in this.  Aristia (3) is still trying extricate herself from the pocket from last start.  Barrier might have her in a similar situation, however if she gets out suspect she will be close.

 

Selections – 6-8-3-2

 

Race 6 – Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3yo SWP)

 

They might call it the classic but it will always be Norman to me!  Extra Brut (3) sparkled in the UCI and suspect he can again here.  If Sydney form is superior then Thinkin’ Big (1) looms as the biggest threat and will take some catching.  Chapada (12) was very impressive winning his maiden by panels and Sikorski (10) all but beat Extra Brut (1) in the UCI.  Will be watching the Maher-Eustace pair Not a Single Cent (4) and Visao (5) looking for improvement.

 

Selections – 3-1-12-10

 

Race 7 – Coongy Cup (G3, 2000m, HCP)

 

Best of Days (7) was just short of Furrion last start here, reproduction of that form will go close to winning this.  Biggest challenge from the tough Trap for Fools (3) who was only two lengths off Winx.  Prized Icon (2) at his best wins this, has been thereabouts without getting the job done and Life Less Ordinary (4) should be ready for a big race.  Have left out Sixties Groove (6) in expectation of being scratched after winning the Moe Cup.

 

Race 9 – Tristarc Stakes (G2, 1400m, Mares SWP)

 

An open affair for the Mares putting Elicazoom (9) for first.  Runs well at the track and has winners littered through her form lines.  Invincible Gem (4) is second up off a creditable effort in the Premiere, back to mares grade puts her right in this.  If Savatiano (11) got the run earlier she may have caught Invincibella (3) expect both of them to be prominent here.

 

Selections – 9-8-11-3

 

Race 10 – Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, 4YO+ SWP)

 

Peaceful State (5) comes off group one level, this should be easier.  Mr Sneaky (8) beat him home in that race but did get a better run, again the drop in grade a benefit.  Perast (2) is 3 from 5 over the distance including one here and Dreamforce (6) also has a good record over 1400 but has not run at The Heath.

 

Selections – 5-8-2-6

 

Quaddie Time

 

Caulfield Cup is very wide open as are a the other races, we’ll try and stay in before we go skinny in the last – despite it also being open!  We’ll put in a second one with the better fancies.

 

Quaddie 1 – Staying Alive

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18

Leg 3 – 1, 3, 4, 9, 11

Leg 4 – 5, 8

 

480 Combinations, $30 investment will return 6.25% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – A bit more of the dividend!

 

Leg 1 – 3, 7

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 14, 17, 18

Leg 3 – 4, 9

Leg 4 – 5, 8

 

40 Combinations, $10 investment will return 25% of the dividend.

 

Go the young star,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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