Almanac Footy: Go big or go home

 

I’ve been making big calls about the footy ever since I can remember. Some years, my predictions are easy to explain and thus are easy to excuse when they fail spectacularly. Freo in 2016, for example, I tipped to win the flag that season. Yes, that is silly in hindsight seven years on but they weren’t supposed to go 4-18 with 10 losses consecutively to start the season. Some predictions are a little crazy, and I look like a genius when they turn out to be true. I tipped the Swans to be among the final 4 standing in 2022. However, many of my predictions are outlandish to begin with and turn out to be totally and spectacularly wrong. For instance, I did tip Melbourne to win the spoon in 2020. They finished 9th. A year later, they won the flag. Often, my season predictions are a mix-bag on accuracy. Though I did correctly tip Port to miss the finals and for the Swans to be among the final 4 standing in 2022, I did also tip the Cats to miss finals, and for Essendon to win a final.

 

But all that is in the past. It now comes to the 2023 season, and a whole bunch of tips to make now and ultimately regret in 7 months’ time. As such, I’m going with the expression ‘go big or go home’ for this year’s predictions. I can’t wait to see how wrong I’ll be.

 

 

Prediction 1:

The Premiership will be won by a non-Victorian team. Yes, that’s right. Despite the continued domination of Victorian power-houses Geelong, Richmond, and Melbourne, along with the rising premiership threats of Carlton and Collingwood, I think the Premiership will be won by one of three teams from inter-state. Fremantle, Sydney, or Brisbane. I think all three teams have a good claim to this year’s premiership before the season begins. In the last two years, at least one team has risen from the AFL doldrums to make the grand final two seasons later. Melbourne finished second last in 2019. Sydney were 16th in 2020. Now, Freo were far from a bottom four team in 2021, but their win-loss record I think told a bit of a furphy. Sure, they were in with a chance to make finals entering the last day of the season. But out of their 10 wins, four were by two goals or less. Those games could have gone either way. By comparison, of their 12 losses, one was by two goals or less. What I’m saying is Freo was worse in 2021 then what their final ladder position showed. According to recent history, that means Freo is surely a good chance to make the grand final. Once you’re there, anything can happen. However, they are still pretty inexperienced with regards to finals. That is where Brisbane comes in. Brisbane are surely Premiership favourites. Even with the investigation into allegations of racism hanging over Fagan, he has assembled a formidable team. That was before the best addition any team has made this off-season in Dunkley. Sure, they’ve choked in finals every year since 2019 but last year they showed signs that their terrible habit of losing finals might be finally be fading. There is no reason why the GABBA can’t become a fortress for them in September like it is from March to August. As for the Swans, people forget they won 9 games going into the grand final. Yes they were blown out, but one of the youngest teams got blown out by the most experienced team in the competition. They do have to overcome history to make it to the grand final, let alone win the premiership. Geelong were the most recent team to get blown out in a grand final one year only to show up to the big dance a year later, in 1994-95. To find a winner a year after they got hammered in the Grand Final? You have to go back to the Eagles of 1991-92. But… if any team is to do it, why not the team that handed Geelong its biggest loss of 2022, defeated Melbourne at the MCG (before everyone started doing it), and beat the Dockers in Perth?

 

 

Prediction 2:

Carlton will finish 9th again. Is Carlton the new Richmond? I know I just made both supporter groups involuntarily shudder, but I do think that after this season Richmond might be able to shred the tag of the team that finishes 9th and hand it off to their hated rivals. Why? Well, Carlton is stacked with talent. The best big-forward duo in the competition with the potential to become the next Lloyd-Lucas or Roughead-Franklin, paired with one of the best midfields in the comp featuring the reigning brownlow medalist, and some of the best defenders in the comp as well. Consider, however, they had the exact same weapons last season. And started the season 8-3. They became the first team in decades to be inside the top 8 for the entire season and still miss the finals. Until I see them play, there is nothing that won’t convince me Carlton can avoid getting in their own damn way. With the injury to Walsh too, Carlton will be hoping to avoid another injury to any other of their big named players. If so, we may discover that their depth is actually pretty shallow.

 

Prediction 3:

Gold Coast will play finals. When it was announced that the Suns best forward, King, who kicked 47 goals in 2021 and was set to tear the competition apart in 2022 would end up missing the season instead, I thought the Suns would finish inside the bottom four. Yet, they were for most of the season on track to make finals. Sure, they finished twelth, comfortably outside of the top 8, but losses against the Magpies and Power could’ve gone the other way very easily. Granted, so could’ve won against Richmond and West Coast, but still. The Suns feel like they’ve turned a corner. And now they have three deadly forward options in King, Chol, and Casboult. The midfield is brimming with danger for oppositions midfield, lead by the player extremely unlucky to not have won a brownlow in the last two years, Touk Miller. This season, the Suns make the finals. I’ll go even further to say they host a final at Metricon. Imagine saying that after round 1 2020 when they lost for the umpteenth time in a row.

 

 

Prediction 4:

The Dogs finish inside the bottom 6. This is the prediction that is probably the most difficult to defend. After all, the Dogs haven’t missed finals since 2018. However, outside of that amazing midfield depth, and a decent forward line, the Dogs are running on empty. Something happened from the midway point of the third quarter in the 2021 decider. Since then, the Dogs went from giving up a 19-point lead to a year later choking a 6-goal headstart against Freo. I doubt the Dogs have the depth, nor the plan B or plan C, to overcome two consecutive years of heart-breaking final chokes. Beveridge has a weak backline and often doesn’t seem to have a plan B when plan A clearly doesn’t work. God forbid the Bont gets injured. if that happens, I’ll feel even more confident about this prediction. Sorry, Dogs fans. There are too many question marks about this team for me to trust them. Feel free to throw this back in my face when the Dogs inevitably win three finals in a row to make the Grand Final from the bottom half of the 8 again.

 

Those are the main big predictions. The rest of the season I think will play out like this:
Ladder at the end of round 24, 2023:

1. Brisbane.
2. Melbourne.
3. Freo.
4. Sydney Swans.
5. Richmond.
6. Gold Coast.
7. Geelong Cats.
8. Port Adelaide.

 

9. Carlton.
10. Collingwood.
11. Adelaide Crows.
12. St Kilda.
13. Essendon.
14. Western Bulldogs.
15. West Coast.
16. North Melbourne.
17. Hawthorn.
18. GWS.

 

Coleman Medalist: C.Curnow.

Brownlow: T.Miller.

Norm Smith: L.Neale.

 

Finals:

Brisbane beat Sydney Swans.
Fremantle beat Melbourne.
Richmond beat Port Adelaide.
Geelong beat Gold Coast.

 

Sydney beat Richmond.
Melbourne beat Geelong.

 

Brisbane beat Melbourne.
Fremantle beat Sydney.

 

Grand Final: Brisbane beat Fremantle.

 

Bring on the 2023 season (so long as Collingwood doesn’t win the flag).

 

 

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