Thoughts and tips for the Anzac Round of footy and racing

Greetings All,

 

The plight of the Blues has my mind wandering broadly across the sporting landscape.  The mighty Joe Giblin has reminded me of the exploits of Ben Simmons with the 76ers along with his past as a young Friar.  Then we had Daniel Ricciardo win a Grand Prix that actually involved some passing maneuvers.  The A-League finals are upon us, Sydney’s dominance of the competition destroyed any real interest months ago.  Then there was Winx – the Sydney carnival buried among all four footy codes plus plenty of other sports, the money might be good, not sure it is well spent!

 

She once again showed how superior she is to all the competition here.  Her quest for a fourth Cox Plate a foregone conclusion provided the current plans are not altered.  I would like them altered and have her take on the best of Europe at Royal Ascot.  The times and numbers say she is the best in the world, globally there are sceptics who say she all she has beaten is southern hemisphere plodders.  There is some justification in those comments with a number of the vanquished having their second chance in Australia after not living up to expectations in either Europe or Asia.  I reckon go and visit Lizzie, win the Queen Anne and leave nothing to doubt.

 

That is not the plan though, so from a personal perspective I hope she wins the Cox Plate and on the way through contests the Turnbull at Flemington so she can let go down the famous Flemington straight.

 

Ok so now it is back to the footy, a tough test this week with matches stretching out from Friday to Wednesday.

 

Randwick ($1.32) vs Pie in the Face ($4.10)

 

The Crows fell into the Pie Trap last week and will be keen to avenge the loss.  Their lack of presence from their forward half was lamentable and are clearly missing the brothers Crouch in the engine room.  The Sydney midfield is not one that you want to have your inside grunt players on the sidelines for.  Just not sure they have the personnel to lift in that area, Rory was overwhelmed and not in there this week.  They could get some help if Sam Jacobs can find some form, this week’s opposition will not have the same presence of Grundy.  Sydney are coping without a strong ruckman and dealt with the challenge from the Bulldogs.  At the SCG Sydney should prevail, the Crows have too many good ‘uns missing.  (literally and figuratively)

 

Wouldn’t have the Faintest ($4.10) vs The No 1 Challengers ($1.32)

 

Trust all is well with Dylan Roberton after his on-field collapse on Sunday, great result if he only misses two weeks, the most important result being that he is OK in the long term.  The same can be said for Koby Stevens who is yet another player with an indeterminate future due to concussion.  A huge test at the cattery last week, nice to be in the Loungeroom this week but playing host to the Giants will temper that.  GWS are coasting along at this stage with a couple of their mature recruits in Griffen and Delidio finding form.  Giants should be too good.

 

Black and Blue ($5.30) vs A Shuey In ($1.21)

 

Good teams struggle to cover injuries, Carlton are not in the good category so their challenges are even greater.  Four of their top five in the best and fairest are missing (One never to return).  The natives are baying for blood, it all needs to be kept in perspective.  Despite this being played at the Eagles horror venue the MCG the Blues just will not have the talent or maturity on the park.  The job is to find out who wants to play and then work out who can play.  Kennedy to beat up on lowly opposition again and Eagles to win.

 

Purple Haze ($1.67) vs English Speaking ($2.48)

 

Freo get back on home soil which will make it a massive test for the Bulldogs who were impressive last week against the Swans, just could not get over the line.  They bring back Tom Boyd who will be a handy backup for the improving Tim English, the biggest test though up against Herman.  Doggies with some chance, but Freo in Freo looks like a fortress again.

 

Help Neaded ($1.57) vs Don’t Give a Zach ($2.72)

 

The Blues didn’t give Zach Touhy what he thought he was worth, no doubt they could use him now.  He plays his 150th game this week as one of the best Irish imports to play the game.  Reckon both clubs made the right decision in the long term.  His Cats take on Port who fell for the sucker punch from the Bombers.  Neade in for Rockliff will provide more pace.  Adelaide Oval holds no fears for the Cats who are batting at 50% at the venue, just think that Port will bounce back at home.

 

Mr Brown’s Boys ($2.82) vs Double Trouble ($1.54)

 

The Roos demolition of the Blues needs some perspective, one not needing perspective though is the value of Big Ben Brown – a super player!  His boys take on the super organised Hawks who simply dissected the Demons last week.  They deserve as much credit as the vitriol being dished out to Melbourne.  They are somewhat hamstrung this week and for a few more with the injuries to Poppy and Cyril.  Giving the Roos a great chance here if they can neutralise the effect of Mitchell and O’Meara and picking them to prevail.

 

Need Some Pride ($1.84) vs Setting the Barlow ($2.18)

 

Brisbane just need to get last week’s game out of their system, they have a pretty good list with good young talent sometimes they will get exposed.  The great stories of this round is the return to footy of Michael Barlow.  After breaking his leg for a second time in round 13 last year – he is back and ready to go.  Not blessed with pace, he is just a natural footballer who knows how to find it.  A flip of the coin for me and think the Lions might prevail at home.

 

Dee moralised ($2.86) vs Striped Marvels ($1.51)

 

Teams have bounced back well this season off poor performances, the Melbourne performance last week certainly rated that way.  Both on the field and off the field.  If only they had Jack – is a pile of rubbish.  As good a player as Jack Viney is surely he alone cannot fix the inconsistency of this team from quarter to quarter.  I expect a significantly better performance against the Tigers, will it be good enough to break the formula?  They should have beaten Richmond in this fixture last year but for losing a couple of players to injury.  Just think they might do it this time.

 

What a Steele ($1.87) vs Wooshed ($2.12)

 

He kicked 10 in the TAC Grand Final but still got out to pick 10 in the draft – Steele Sidebottom continues to prove that having footy smarts is still king.  How will Woosha look after him on ANZAC Day?  Rucks will be important if Belchambers can match it with Grundy I give Essendon the advantage, the Pies could not handle Joe last year and I don’t see any change to that.

 

The Championships Close

 

Two group ones at Royal Randwick to close out the Sydney Carnival, it has had some great racing but seen by few.  Another tripod in the Quaddie – a handy result though with Alizee.

 

Race 6

 

The babies stretch out to a mile in The Champagne Stakes (G1, 1600m, 2yo SW) – liked Not A Single Cent (5) in the Sires but was horribly drawn, gets a better gate and a better chance.  The Hawkes trained Irukandji (6) stung punters last start, is bred to cover a distance so must rate a chance.  The Sires winner can’t be ignored, so El Dorado Dreaming (12) is the mix as is Outrageous (3) who closed well in that race.

 

Selections – 5-6-3-12

 

Race 7

 

The All Aged Stakes (G1, 1400m, WFA) is where the sprinters meet the milers.  These races are usually early in the carnivals, such the Futurity and the Orr at Caulfied – being at the end probably makes it harder for the milers coming back in distance.  If Trapeze Artist (10) runs to his best he is a huge chance, but the price is a bit skinny.  Reckon the Weir trained Brave Smash (2) might provide better punting value, certainly a question about running right handed though.  Showtime (11) ran well last week and has closely followed both Trapeze Artist (10) and Brave Smash (2) home.  Another 3yo Muraaqeb (13) rates next for me.  Watch the market for CJW’s Japanese import Satono Rasen (9) having its first start in Australia.

 

Selections – 2-10-11-13

 

Quaddie Time

 

More like Quaddie overtime!  Let’s see what we can do this week.  We open with the Group 1, the Champers is an open affair especially with so many not have run the distance.  The All-Aged gets skinny if you like Trapeze Artist, wider if you don’t.  3rdleg looks tough, while Osborne Bulls could let us skinny up in the last.

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 12

Leg 2 – 2, 10, 11

Leg 3 – 1, 6, 7,10

Leg 4 – 4, 7

 

144 Combinations so that $30 investment will return just under 21% of the dividend!

 

 

Off to a flyer with the Seniors booting 9 in the final quarter to record an 81 point victory over Bulleen-Templestowe, the reserves and under 19s won in similar style with the young Friars defeating Preston Bullants.  The Girls could complete the Quadrella up against an experienced Canterbury outfit.  This week it’s another quadruple header at Friar Park, the Women take on Old Melburnians, Under 19s face Brunswick and Seniors face Powerhouse.  The Senior team will be wearing commemorative jumpers for ANZAC Day and a service will be held on the oval before the main game and the club will be raising funds for the ANZAC Appeal and more specifically  the Doncaster RSL.

 

 

Go Friars, Go Blues

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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