The 2012 ‘Mopsy’ Fraser Cup – Round Seven

Greetings Tipsters

Instinct is important in itself, but more important is knowing when to go with it. Works in all sorts of situations, whether a mate introduces you to his new girlfriend and the sirens blare and emergency lights flash “Noooo, don’t do it!” or your sister introduces you to her new boyfriend and he’s a decent bloke – twelve years and three kids later he still is – you’ve gotta be able to judge it. Goes much the same with football tipping.

Adelaide was a no-brainer. Geelong have really fallen off the pace this season and while the win over Hawthorn was a cracker of a game, it doesn’t seem quite so meritorious now. Meanwhile, the Murder have been steadily improving since a bad stumble against the Mayblooms. Their next two games against Carlton and Collingwood will give us a better idea of whether or not they are serious contenders but for now a nine goal thumping of the premier will do nicely, thank you.

Too much thinking can be at the expense of one’s instincts. I tipped the Barbecues against the Goldies on Thurseve because I felt they had a tougher edge but I got to thinking about Gary Ablett… Or maybe I read too many op-ed pieces and I really should know better than to trust the opinions of a football writer. Twenty minutes before the bounce, I changed my tip and thirty minutes later I knew I should’ve let my instinct be. The plumber’s apprentices really did show their tough edge; in the last quarter, with a lead of just three points and several minutes left to play, I had no doubt that they’d win.

Just as I’ve no doubt that they will become a competitive team a lot sooner than the Goldies. Still, I’m glad to see Karmichael Hunt becoming a genuinely valuable player. He copped a lot of barbs from all over, the usual “it’s just marketing, he’s only in it for the money”, much of this from former players, it all ignored the obvious, that he’s a professional who’d already topped the field in one code and his pride in himself would drive him to be the best he could in this one. Sure, he’s new to Australian Football, but he’s very well-versed in the demands of professional sport.

I wish I’d written that in some length over summer when I first thought of it so I could now say “Told ya so!” but you’ll just have to take my word for it. I figure much the same for Folau, though he’s a few years younger and has more natural athleticism which may make the transition tougher, especially as Hunt’s skill and strength make him a natural for his new role which is as close as you can get to being at the coalface of a Rugby League match.

Around the same time I changed that tip, I was considering another match. I’d tipped the Wiggles out of habit but was looking at it and Red and Black (the colours of danger and mystery) leaped out but I didn’t change my tip. Why not? Laziness? Idiocy? The prospect of a Satnite shift at work? Most likely laziness.

Hindsight’s a wonderful thing, but I knew that Woosha’s preferred forward lineup would spend the match playing bridge in a hyperbaric recovery chamber. Meanwhile, the Mosquitos were but one point and/or 30 seconds away from being undefeated. Now they’ve handily accounted for the Yarras and the Wiggles, they can reasonably claim to be the form team.

Unlike Carlton. The Yarras leaked 19 goals against the Party Boys who, however many matches they won under Lyon’s guidance, usually only kicked 5 or 6 and choked the opposition to 2 or 3. Barker’s Boys have snuck into the edge of the eight and have a handy percentage, better than the two teams ahead of them.

North are still a good ordinary team. Footscray accounted for them reasonably well. Take the win over the Barbecues out of the equation and the Shinboners have a percentage of 95.3, which gives one a better idea of where they sit in the overall scheme.

Well, that’s Round Seven done and Rohan Connolly has writ his annual column about how the eight hardly changes from now on. There’s something to that idea, or there used to be. Seven weeks in and we oughta get some good idea of form that three or four weeks wouldn’t allow. I used to think so but it seems a bit antiquated in 2012.

Until a few years ago the draw was structured so that every team played every other team once. Then the first seven rounds were replayed. So by Round Seven, the double-ups had been doubled up and it was a game against everyone else from then on. Hence, this week was a reasonable pointer to the rest of the season.

But that’s no longer the case, the draw is all over the place, some teams still have two games to play against another team and the Barbecues and the Goldies throw an out-of-tune 12-string Rickenbacker into the mix.

But it’s worth taking a look at the ladder anyway. There’s a Gulf Of Carpentaria between the top-runners and the already-rans. The last four have two wins between them. The top seven have five or six wins each. Six teams have a percentage of less than 89, the rest have at least 103 and seven teams over 123. The Mayblooms, every journo’s favourite in March, and the Pivotonians, reigning premiers, are outside the eight, if only by percentage (though in the Piv’s case, that’s a dangerous gap).

Let’s say that every team below has bugger-all chance of doing anything other than ‘shaping the eight’, which may be a bit harsh on Shinboners and Tiggers, but they’re two wins behind seventh. The Wiggles still hang on to #1 by a shred of percentage, the Yarras only significant win was over the 4&20s, the Murder’s over the Pivs, then there’s the Purps, the Sparkies, and this is the least significant Round Seven since I don’t know when because there ain’t no standout two or three teams like we’ve gotten used to these last several years.

If the interweb was all it’s cracked up to be, I could check this against Round Seven ladders from seasons past, but the hell with it. I’ve got an essay due about writing stories for interactive games.

Cheers, Tipsters

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About Earl O'Neill

Freelance gardener, I've thousands of books, thousands of records, one fast motorcycle and one gorgeous smart funny sexy woman. Life's pretty darn neat.


  1. The Yarras?

  2. Yeah, I’m getting way too elliptic there, arent’t I?

    Muddy Waters sings the blues.

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