Sal’s AFL Round 17 Preview

Greetings to all,

 

Back from a couple of fantastic weeks in Vietnam and plenty happening in the game but no time to address any of the news noise.

 

Sparkling Time? ($2.22) vs One Throat to Choke ($1.80)

 

With a couple of wins in a row and an injury to Gazza the Crows fans might put a few bubbles in their glasses and especially if they can knock off the reigning premiers tonight.  Would have loved to changed my selection last week when I saw Hill withdrawn, but was watching on 30 minute delay.  The Hawks without Rioli and Hill really have only one speedster left in Isaac Smith.  Hill has provided the extra link speed during the season and his loss is important.  They have enough ball winning capability and will be keen to atone, but I reckon Adelaide might be able to exploit the lack of speed at home and account for the Hawks.

 

Deespair ($7.60) vs Up the Rivers ($1.14)

 

What affect will Darwin have on the Demons?  Certainly the weather will be different, but not much difference in the opposition and probably the result.  Their last victory over that’s being way back in May 2006, where incredibly 3 of those protagonists will be playing in this encounter Jamar and Dunn remaining with the Dees while Jared Rivers has flipped – for the record Kelly, Enright and Bartel were in the Geelong line up.  The Cats record will endure.

 

The Mullet is In ($1.07) vs St Spooners? ($15.50)

 

The volatile Roos showed their capability over the Hawks, they get Mullet back this week  The Saints head toward 18th place but do get back Sam Fisher and St Lenny which will stiffen them a little.  Can’t see the Kangas dropping this one.

 

Very Northern Footscray ($2.54) vs No Gazza ($1.64)

 

What a great test for the Suns to head into the finals without Gary Ablett?  Will they still make them?  Talent to burn, but I am not sure about the leadership.  The Dogs this week will go from the arctic conditions of Kardinia Park to the tropics – from recent experience major adjustments are required.  At home I would probably select them, but I think the Suns will prevail but suggest the Dogs are very fair value at the $2.50 mark.

 

Gabbatoirs ($2.84) vs All not Rosa ($1.53)

 

The Lions return to the Gabba where their returns have been handy, up against West Coast who are counting the cost of last week’s encounter and have lost a few key players.  Nic Nat coming back helps.  Not completely endeared with West Coast’s selection but Rockliff’s suspension will affect the Lions.  The odds are too far apart and I am happy to tip the Lions at home, they represent excellent value.

 

Off the High Towers ($1.14) vs Into the Deep End ($7.40)

 

What bollocks from Mick?  Sydney’s list is strong but the depth has not been tested this year – they have played the least number of players.  Mick though has had to really test his depth and probably bumped his melon on the bottom of the pool.  The Blues don’t run deep!  Sydney at home will too strong.

 

Jacked Up ($2.64) vs Hail the Hoff ($1.60)

 

150 game milestones for two players that mean so much to their clubs.  Jack Reiwoldt has the passion we love about footy, but is often maligned for it.  But when plays well the Tigers usually win.  For Port Justin Westhoff has gone from whipping boy to a critical cog in Kenny’s crusade.  Well played to both.  On the game a critical one for Port to arrest the slide, may have been a question at the G but in the lounge room I suspect they will have the edge.

 

No my Goddard ($2.72) vs Buck’s Fizz ($1.57)

 

A huge game for the Bombers who could get level with the Pies with a win, but the loss of Goddard will be a massive test.  Especially with the depth of the Collingwood midfield.  Whilst I reckon the bagmen have the odds too far apart, I do think Collingwood does have the edge.

 

Get Lake ($1.03) vs Keep Cameron ($30)

 

Get Stuffed Lyon will have his team chasing Brian Lake after his solid wrestling display, but this week will not have to apply to many holds.  Whereas the Giants really need to lock down Jeremy Cameron who reaches 50 games this week.

 

Friar Time

 

A huge boost last week to the club with a much need win over Prahran, both teams have massive changes in personnel from their previous encounter.  The Under 19s rolled on with a solid win over Collegians.  No games this week except for Mitch Malt who will be representing the VAFA Under 19 team against the Vic Country team – Well Done Mitch!

 

In other major news the proposed merger between Whitefriars and Donvale will now not go ahead.  In an amicable agreement it was determined that there were too many obstacles on both sides to be able to get support from both clubs.

 

Go Blues, Go Friars,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

Comments

  1. Skip of Skipton says:

    North Melbourne to make the top four. Best value I can find is $5 at Sportsbet.
    I have a gut feeling they have got their shit together, and Geelong at Etihad is their only remaining match against a top-eight side. Hawthorn and Port Adelaide are both going to struggle to hang on.

  2. Skip, getting shit together is a week by week thing for the Kangas- But I agree, they will shape up the top six.
    Good preview Sal. Thanks.

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