Racing: The Caulfield Cup is a raffle

by Chris Riordan

I love having a beer over the Winning Post on Thursday night. There’s no rush and the possibilities are endless. Mind you, it’s stressful in a way as there’s 40 odd hours of indecision between now and disappointment.

The greatest challenge of all, without doubt, is the old bugbear of track conditions for Saturday. I expected Slow yesterday but it held up. Heavy10 at Cranbourne today, but the MRC insist the track will be DEAD4. It’s rained in squalls but I’m going with a reasonable SLOW5 so as not to do my head in.

So, no bog trackers or tricky bias (please!).  Caulfield generally rewards horses on the pace from good gates, but my tips move freely around such truisms. And, remember, this is first draft only.

It’s a tough card and maybe we should first remember our rules so far. From Turnbull Day, its “horses for courses” in Melbourne. And Makybe’s Guineas Day lament was to take the field in the final leg.

Ten races are too many, but let’s have a crack.

R1-  8 Rachine to beat 11 and 7

R2-  4 Weasley to win.

R3-  Its after midday so have a beer. 2 Lavia no value but if you must punt…

R4- The Norman Robinson. This and the Vase at MV are excellent guides for the Colts stepping up to 2000. The boom is off Sydney’s onemorenomore, a Gr 1 winner and I’m risking him. Shamoline Warrior has been very good in his last two but I’m tipping Tribunal to turn the tables. He stargazed when looking the winner and should peak now with Blinkers on. Lexcen must go in the multis at odds. 5,8,2.

R5-  Going to chase my losses on Rightfully Yours but will watch for any money for Tim Martin’s Kiloton.

R6-  Top race, though many are looking ahead to the rich mare’s mile on Derby Day (Hot Danish for mine). Back Neroli if wet. Query Typhoon Tracy, though good, dropping back to 1400, a distance which looks good for Velocitea. Even Tootsie, with no weight, is a chance on last week’s form. Despite the barrier, I’m going for Symphony Miss at odds.

R7-  The old Coongy Handicap, aka Cup consolation. As a kid, I remember each year’s trots Interdominion having a consolation and being struck with how often the final’s Emergency won- seemed logical really. On that, you’d want to box 2,3 and 7 in a trifecta. Particularly if you knew that I’m somehow backing No 10 PreEminence instead (its chances will become apparent in the ring, so be there!).

R8-  Cup. Raffle. It’s the sort of race where, rather than making cases, you can pot nearly all of them. Risk the imports or recognize their claims in a relatively weak Cup? And Predatory Pricer, from Barrier 16?  Vigor, from the old Guineas enclosure, should wait for Flemington. I’ll not be backing anything under double figures. At the moment I’m leaning towards No 7, Roman Emperor, and putting the emergency Baughurst and topweight Viewed in my selections.

R9-  Tricky. Hard to work out who lobs where. I’m confident that First Command and Diplomatic Force will be in the money however it pans out.

R10- Field of course! Mind you, I’d rather load up, get to the final leg and, as JTH would attest, use Betfair to make a book. Nevertheless, it’s a field race! And I’m taking Belle’s Ready to get me out.

Have a bet in the last before you even leave home so you at least have an out!

Enjoy the day.

Advice welcome!

Comments

  1. Mark Freeman says:

    Crio and punters, I noticed this morning that the TAB has a an offer, the Pommy Package or some such, in which from 5pm today you can have up to a max $20 on the bracket selection of Kirklees and Cima de Triomphe to win at $8. This effectively gives you $10 on each at $16, and might be a good way of covering off on them and having a lash at something at odds in the cup

  2. Just checked MRC site and track rating DEAD 4 on this morning’s penetrometer.
    That could, of course, be the threat to the curator if he allows the reading to further deteriorate before exotics are bet.
    He may otherwise find the penetrometer rather uncomfortably wedged!
    Does look clearer however from my Flemington lookout. We’re expecting cricket in the morning.

  3. Peter Flynn says:

    Nice one Makybe.

  4. Check out if that is right Makybe.
    You can get a cheap profit to punt elsewhere.
    TAB site at the moment has $8, as Peter Landy said , each of two.
    If they are offering $8 the brackat, even just for $20 = $140 profit.
    Betfair now can lay $10 Kirklees @10 and $10 Cima @ 8.8.
    Make 50 or 62 for nothing. Variations available, such as just take the 20 out of Cima and have 140 to bugger all for Kirklees…
    Good business.

  5. Free money.

    I love Betfair.

    Is there a catch?

  6. mick geary says:

    It’s all too complicated for me – I failed maths in year 11 (13%) – I shall ask my seven-year-old when I get home.

  7. Awaiting Makybe’s all-clear.
    If so, just do it and I’ll hand your profit to him tomorrow.

  8. Mark Freeman says:

    Punters this offer is listed on the Current Bun’s race-by-race selection page in the sports section – haven’t got a copy of the paper on me but I saw it this morn. Had a very quick look at the tote site but couldn’t the offer listed there.

    The catch will be getting on as they limit their exposure with these little offers, It will be strictly a first-in affair. The smart but undignified way to go about this would be to bolt around all the totes in your area getting your 20 spots on, then laying the lot off as Crio has it above.

    Of course when it comes to free money on the punt, dignity just doesn’t figure in the frame.

  9. mick geary says:

    Page 116 of the little paper – it’s there in b&w.

  10. Got a flyer from the local agent. As promised, but a $100,000 national payout ceiling. 5 mins max.

  11. Apparently the TAB had a special last week offering odds for Black Piranha and money back 2nd and 3rd…basically win odds the con. Was all gone by 505pm.
    I’ve made my late bid for Father of the Year by trying to change my sick son’s doctor appt to allow me to be pubside before 5. Alas it doesn’t look likely for me.
    If you are still interested, a special Sportsbet number will go to retail venues about 455. Fill in the form and bet. Once only will, they say, be enforced. My tip is those sweet with cashiers will give good incentive to have a few cracks at it.
    Good luck.

  12. Crio

    The Allez Wonder gut feeling was simply Bart, a mile, a mare and down at the bottom of the weights. An image of her winning from a very old Racetrack magazine popped up and the rest, as they say, is history.

    Reckon I will go the french connection again in the cup with Ces’t La Guerre. More work to do though

  13. johnharms says:

    Allez Wonder – heavily backed on Betfair the last two days. In to $12.50

    btw – Betfair CCup prices are live on the CCup blog page

  14. Mark Freeman says:

    Crio did you get on the Pommy package carry on?

  15. Crio

    I just typed 72,193 words and pushed the wrong key I think and lost the lot.

    I gave reasons for my selections but I cannot scare up that epic again.

    NUTSHELL

    Race 5, KILOTON

    Race 6, ALVERTA at $51 each way

    Race 7, BERLIOZ E/W (at massives) with REPRISAL and JOE BLOW likewise

    The Cup, CEST LA GUERRE for trainer Lloyd Williams from VIEWED and RED RULER

    Race 9, My GUT FEELER, RED ELEMENT

    The Last, GLAM SLAM to win, PACHANGA and BOOGALOO each way.

  16. Freezer,
    No. Rushed through our doctor stuff, screamed in to the pub, put bet on at 506 and “COMPUTER SAYS NO”.
    Elvis,
    Always wary of Tim Martin (Kiloton). I’ll be closely monitoring Tommy Waterhouse to see if the Sydney concession arrives.

  17. Elvis,
    Berlioz, despite the draw, will be no better than 20/1 if the track is ok.
    Speaking of which, it is bucketing in adelaide again tonight.Hope it stays away.

  18. mick geary says:

    Late this arvvo Freeza and I went to the pub TAB in China Town to take up the TAB’s offer of 15-1 the pommy pair tomorrow. In comical scenes, the lad behind the jump knew nothing of it and it looked highly unlikely Sky was going to break into the dishlickers to give us the secret sportsbet code needed to get on. Just then Freeza’s astute ear picked up word on the radio and he dutifully marked down the code. Over he went, slipped in the ticket and handed over the $20 (the maximum outlay per person). In all the rush our great Knacker tipster had misheard the code and had instead plonked $20 at 6-1 on Manly to win the flag next year. Thankfully a refund was forthcoming and the correct code entered. Odds on now the pommy pair finish well back tomorrow and Manly romps home to the 2010 NRL flag.

  19. Mark Freeman says:

    Imagine having to dress up as a Sea Eagle and barrack for them next winter. Dear oh dear.

    Nonetheless, Crio: Mark me down for $20 top fluc on my girl Hot Danish tomorrow, and I’ll hand you a 20-spot ticket on the Pommy Package – Gears and I managed to get on a couple of times.

  20. Does Des Hassler still play?

    Go Sea Eagles!

  21. Elvis/Crio,
    Berlioz is $41 TAB fixed odds and $100 Betfair at the moment.
    As for the Pommy Package – if it seems to good to be true then it probably is.
    I’m on Bart in the Cup – Viewed or, if track deteriorates, add in Roman Emperor and C’est Le Guerre

  22. Crio/Budge

    Just backed Berlioz at the $41 and had to settle for the $35 Alverta after a few sherbets at the club. Willing to punt that the odds for Ces’t la Guerre (out of the mare La Magnifique, which is French for Magnifique, who in turn was a very good mare in the 70’s) will be as healthy if not better on the day.

    Any thoughts on my “Gut Feeler”, Red Element.

  23. Elvis,
    Berlioz is still $100 on Betfair. Want me to take any of that for you?

    Red Element $25 & Alverta $42 Betfair.

  24. Elvis,
    Not sure where you learnt French but I’m tipping that La Magnifique is not French for Magnifique – Magnificent perhaps?

  25. Mark Freeman says:

    Budge the Pommy package is just simply a bet of 10 bucks at $16 on both english horses, which you can lay off on the exchange. The TAB is offering these deals to woo punters back from the exchange and the corporates

  26. Freezer, I understand the concept but it seems you had to be in position between 5:00 and 5:02 to get on! Loved the story about Manly – makes them good things for the premiership next year.
    Good luck today.

  27. Mark Freeman says:

    Yes I should have followed the old rule of never cancel a ticket even if it’s a mistake. You’re right, they’re now certainties!

    See you out there Budge

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