Racing: Preview for Flemington, Randwick, Morphettville and Warracknabeal on 5 September

Mark “Makybe” Freeman writes:

The march to the big races in spring continues apace, punters, and it’s a big, fascinating and punting-wise tough card at Headquarters tomorrow. It’s always been a real spring set-up day, Craiglee Stakes day, and there’s quality beasts across the program.

I’ll be keeping a watch on Nicastro and Shamoline Warrior in the second, the latter’s stablemate Dr Doute’s in the fourth, Black Caviar and Grand Harmony in the Danehill,  impressive Liston winner Predatory Pricer (and doesn’t he look magnificent in the Dees colours!) in the Craiglee (now Makybe’s race) and my boy Hissing Sid, Speed Gifted and Leica Larrikin in the last.

But for Daff’s dough, we’re going up to Randwick, which hosts a solid card highlighted by the Chelmsford Stakes. Up there the form around crack three-year-olds Trusting and Denman is very strong, and four-year-old O’lonhro, like Denman another spitting image of dad Lonhro, was overrun late by Trusting in the Warwick Stakes a fortnight ago and looks a good thing to salute in the Chelmsford.

So we’ll have Sydney R6 No. 8 O’lonhro $50 the win. ($2.80 Centrebet and Betfair)

And over in Adelaide, my man Ciaron Maher has his up-and-coming hurdler Brough Superior taking on Last Shogun and some other cart-tuggers in the hurdle, so we’re sending the other half of Daff’s cash around on the up-and-overs just in case he was about to get the cheesecloth cardigan on and call for an end to barbaric sporting pursuits.

Adelaide, R1 No.2 Brough Superior $50 the win (odds $4.50 Winning Post)

And with the brilliant first week of the final series on our doorsteps, it would be remiss of me not to mention that at Warracknabeal in race six Aussie Coffey has one going around called The Ruckman.

Have a great weekend, punters.

Chris Riordan writes:

A Saturday of promise … all along the Maribyrnong.

Real form may now be unveiled after Cup weights were released this week. With fewer O/S raiders to complain about, reaction was uncharacteristically muted. The exception was Paul Murray, trainer of Caulfield Cup favorite Predatory Pricer, who sooked and declared the Valley his only goal.

More Cups horses step out at Flemington for the old Craiglee meeting this Saturday. As a Doggies fan, this was usually the start of Spring, gloriously unencumbered by September footy anxieties … the downside was generally being skint by Guineas Day!

This Saturday will be a juggle, but we’ll be at the MCG, only a dozen steps from the Level 4 TAB and screens in the MCC Enclosure. It’s a pity the AFL have gone for a 2.30 start, as normal bounce-down would have the first two legs of the quaddie at quarter-time and half-time time. But I’ll scamper down as time-on starts to watch the Danehill Stakes, in particular the two boom horses, Manhattan Rain, my early Guineas tip who has not impressed in a trial this week, and Black Caviar, the rising glamour filly of racing.

As the third quarter begins, the state of the match will determine my interest in the Makybe Diva, in which the bottom three in the weights should continue their Liston battle. All very good horses and a watch will also go on the stayers resuming for future glory (minus, apparently, the injured Red Ruler).

I cannot predict my state for the end of the card and will need TVN replays to analyse, but the amazing Maldivian tops the weights in Race 8, whilst Speed Gifted, Leica Larrikin and Hissing Sid will have their watchers in the last.

Time to attack the form guide and report later.

Craig Down writes:

This Saturday. 4pm. I will not be at the ‘G following my beloved Hoops as they duke it out with the Scraggers (with Betfair account open on iPhone) or suited up in the Members’ at headquarters (with earpiece carrying footy coverage). I will be at a church in Barwon Heads. In black tie. At a wedding. (This was not well planned given the groom, a great bloke, is a footy fan and an excellent punter). Not to worry: the phone and ‘piece will be with me.

So, to Flemington and, hopefully, some good form lines and a few decent collects.

First up, I like Avenue in the 1100m for 3yo fillies. Her only start was a win at night at Money Valley in February. $2.90 fixed odds with TAB Sportsbet in the paper today. If you want a bank for the day, grab that.

After watching the 2nd (cracking race) and 3rd (less cracking), I might step back in the 4th and have something on Kavanagh’s resuming Dr Doute’s.

The 5th, the Group 2 Let’s Elope for mares, looks a pretty open affair with several winning chances. Given winning form is better than losing form, I’m happy to see if the Kav can roll on with Cats Whisker greeting the judge first and the end of 1400. Estee is the danger.

Similarly, the Group 2 Danehill for 3yos looks a beauty with a potential superstar trained by an understated man (Black Caviar/Peter Moody) looking likely to get the chocolates. I can’t have Rostova (Richards finds too many excuses for her: choked down, end of prep, in season, etc, etc, etc) nor can I have Gai’s “best 3yo in Australia” (well, I suspect she thought he was prior to the track gallop during the week) Manhattan Rain. Once that could be a little chance at odds ($13.00 with TAB Sportsbet) is Grand Harmony, who flogged Gai’s champion to death at the aforementioned trial. And it’s M. Kavanagh again. A table at the Drum might beckon if she gets up.

In the big one, the Craiglee (sorry, whilst I love the mare, I like tradition more), I’ll be watching the Caulfield Cup leg of my CC/Cox Plate double, Vigor, closely. Whilst I don’t reckon he can win, if he gets within 2.5 lengths of the horse that does, he’ll be ticking over nicely. Whilst I’ll probably stay out of the race, I suspect one of the three faves, Typhoon Tracy, Heart of Dreams and Predatory Pricer, will see the line first.

I’ll also be keeping a close eye on the get-out to see if my other Caulfield Cup fancy, “the Sid”, improves on his last run. Whilst the Valley was never going to be his track, if he is to figure in six weeks time, he’d want to be closing well tomorrow.

As for the biggies at Royal Randwick, I favour O’Lonhro (on the Denman/Trusting form) in the Chelmsford and a watch in the Furious.

Good luck tomorrow, punters.

Comments

  1. Interesting meeting and many questions to ponder. Opinions invited.
    I’m tempted to test my luck E/W in R2 with Absolute Faith. Any support?
    R3 includes the amazing Guyno. Not likely in this, but has anyone got the time to tell its incredible tale?
    With Apologies, at good odds in R5, is another that has taken my eye at first scrutiny.
    Excited by the Danehill. How short the fav?
    Note in the Makybe that no mare has won since 1996. Pricer looks the one to beat and I’ll just sit on my Betfair Antepost for Heart of Dreams in the Cox Plate.
    Champagne Harmony will definitely be in my quaddie for Race 8.
    Will mull over these tomorrow. Might be a good day for a quaddie??

  2. As the son of strict Catholic parents I have to say I’m shocked that Miss Andretti has produced a foal before becoming Mrs Andretti (or more correctly in this case, Mrs Exceed-and-Excel).

  3. Maybe

    The Ruckman is owned by my neighbour’s son. He has tipped it to be a couple of times – including last start when it was about $9. Big long-striding type I think. (I’ve bnever backed it). With ability. Had 18 months off with an injury but looks to have come back well.

    Good punting.

  4. Lads

    Should also mention that Pope’s Hill (one of ours) won the Sheephills Cup at Warracknabeal in about 1999.

    JTH

  5. I once drove along the Sheephills Road, out of Donald.

    Is there still a Sheephills turf club?

  6. Mark,
    Interesting jockey change in Race 4 where D. Dun replaces J. Lyons on roughie Diamonds at Dusk which had a “difficult passage” last start. The odds are more in response to the bad ride and it will be over the odds.

  7. uncle tony says:

    WOn the sheephills cup with a Horse called desmond palm back in the seventies beat a horse called Colac (odds/on,Ithink it was cold)

  8. Uncle,

    That is magnificent. The fact that you have won the Sheephills Cup (was it run at Donald or Warrack?). And the names involved.

    Desmond Palm?

    Colac?

    I should organise an Almanackers trip to the Sheephills Cup.

    When is it run?

  9. Tomorrow at Warrack!

  10. pauldaffey says:

    Whoops. Next time.

  11. Daff

    Pope’s Hill is the name of a position at Gallipoli.

    He won bravely at about $9.

    He always won at good odds because he was only any good about once a year. He paid for Christmas one year (and a bit more) when he was the despised outsider in a 5-horse field in a terrible distance race at Cheltenham. About $40. PIcked them up like Bernborough and won with a leg in the air.

    Some of those distance races were appalling. I remember one day when one of ours (Courting Luck) won a mile with a final section of 34.9ish, Frenzel Rhomb won the distance race with a sectional of 41.66. It was a good track in February.

  12. I’ll focus mostly on the footy (+ the Danehill) and watch the replays in detail on Sunday.
    My small financial interests tomorrow will be at good odds…hope for a collect.
    R2 small E/W Absolute Faith. Might be up on the pace this week.
    R3 poor race. Lots can’t win No bet. Red Buttons selection.
    R4 Diamonds at Dusk. Good race. Like D. dunn replacing J. Lyon
    R5 E/W With Apologies
    R6 don’t bet. watch. Black Caviar. Plenty of scope in the rest. Review Manhattan Rain and also Wanted. Roughie is Grand Harmony.
    R7 My favorite horse in this is Heart of Dreams but won’t bet. Waiting for the Cox Plate.
    Q 10 + 11. I’ll be watching Vigor. Markets indicate a Caulfield Cup leaning but I’ve backed it for the Melbourne Cup.
    R8 Swift Alliance will be hard to beat, but I’m selecting Champagne Harmony at good odds. Sacked All American. Beautiful horse. Gets beaten too often.

  13. Peter Flynn says:

    The usual stink will occur re the makeup of the Caulfield Cup field.
    A number of fancied runners are down in the weights and not guarenteed a run.
    A number of hacks are assured a run.
    Interesting Cup doubles deliberations ahead.

  14. No Zarita’s jumping out of the page this week.
    You’ll find I’m usually looking for value so may dismiss the obvious as a result.
    This week, watch, take nore and wait.
    R2 – bit of a tip for Chartreux at big odds. worth an e/w try.
    Back to the footy and more study. Will resume tips after that.

  15. Mark Freeman says:

    Crio I was hoping Billy Cerchi would bring Diamonds at Dusk back a level, so I was going to just whack him in a wide quinella with doutes, millbank, famous roman and trustus, but you’ve tipped me back in, I’d better have s’thing eachway as well. I googled Guyno but didn’t come up with a yarn on him. One for the bar when we get into the thick of it.

    The Sheephills Cup is run five minutes after the Chelmsford tomorrow Daff, so in honour of the Knacker history with the great race: should we get a return from O’lonhro or Brough, I’ll at least reinvest a ten-spot on the quinella of Harmsy’s neighbour’s son’s Ruckman with the Wilde family’s Lovely Rita.

    Budge thanks for Chartreux, will chuck it in.

    Good luck to all your respective footy sides and galloping beasts.

    MF

  16. Waste of an hour watching 2nd half of the footy so spent more time studying the form.

    Race 4 – Like Mayfield-Smith’s horses fresh so something on FAMOUS ROMAN. Excellent observation by Crio about change of rider for DIAMONDS AT DUSK so throw it in also.

    Race 5 – DANE JULIA doesn’t win often but does go very well fresh. Worth a try at long odds. ROMNEYA could get to good odds and get a soft run with S. Arnold on board.

    Race 6 – Lets see how good Black Caviar is!! Don’t mind the 2 (DELAGO BOLT) and 3 (WANTED) to test the fave but probably best to keep betting to a minimum here.

    Race 7 – Like HEART OF DREAMS. Should get a soft run and be too good. KIBBUTZ an intersting runner in new stable. Throw him in for a big dividend in the tri.

    Race 8 – CHAMPAGNE HARMONY has good form and hard to beat. Big watch on RAHEEB now in Mick Price stable- happy to be on him if any money there at all. KRONER the other one (can’t leave JB out at Flemington).

    Race 9 – Quite keen on LEICA LARRIKIN. Loves the track and this should suit. Also want something on RED LORD. Classes above most of these if he produces his best and will be at decent odds. SPEED GIFTED won like a freak back in May (beat nothing) and will be interesting to see if he can go on with it here. Does look a genuine Flemington horse.

    BEST BETS – Heart of Dreams, Leica Larrikin
    BEST ROUGHIES – Dane Julia, Raheeb, Red Lord

  17. Mark Freeman says:

    Ciaron staying home with Brough, so our Sheep Hills Cup Quinella is on.

    And for the other double cray:

    Tri R4 flexi box 4,5,8,11,14 $10 = 16%

    Tri R8 flex box 2, 6, 11, 13, 15 $10 = 16%

    Melb quad 8,10/7,10,11,12/2,6,11,13,15/4,8,11 $20 = 16%

  18. Hope you boxed up my 2 tips in Race 4 with the favourite for a $390 trifecta!

  19. Disappointing rest of the day. A couple of placegetters but they don’t pay the rent. Black Caviar and Speed Gifted franked their previous form and confirmed themselves as top class. There’s always next week….

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