Racing: Denman the logical choice in an intriguing Guineas field

By Chris Riordan

Early prognostications for Caulfield.

Great meeting. Always a beauty and yet to reach the public pandemonium of the next three Saturdays. Go (unless you’re at the Manangatang Cup!).

The feature race, The Guineas, is, as has been recounted, “vintage”. I doubted Denman could stay up this long but he seems bomb-proof. Logical winner. Manhattan Rain is regally bred and has Gai’s boom, which makes it hard to work out where form ends and hyperbole takes over. Trusting’s last run was unbelievable. He was never on his right leg but, as Kingston Town devotees recall, that can be a familiar trait for Sydney colts aroung the sharp Caulfield bend. He’ll close like Grosvenor once balanced and Bart’s So You Think (blinkers first time) will be coming with him. Tickets looks the pick of the locals as, despite racing on the pace, I doubt Carrara and the Banner are quite “silk department”. No bet for me. Hoping Denman hits the front inside the distance and Trusting is mowing him down.

Leaving aside race 1, here are some initial ponderances for tomorrow’s perusal. Help invited (encouraged!).

RACE 2

Larry’s unbeaten first up but will give a start. Romneya usually box seats. Pace of race to decide the winner. Of the others, Silky Smooth has drawn terribly but has a chance if he gets across.

RACE 3

Excellent form race and many chances. Avenue is the logical one to catch and will be hailed at some stage, but this is a race worth speculative exotics. Watch on 13 Hush Up at huge odds. Note: Here No Tears has blinkers first time.

RACE 4

The Manikato was full of meritorious runs. Apache Cat was turned sideways and motored home. Better second-up and at the track but I’m risking. Wanted was the run of the raceat Moonee Valley, working throughout and still presenting on the line. Good thing at 1200, query 1000 metres. Paprika, the Queensland boom with 51, is unknown at the level. This race has far more depth than may seem initially apparent. Look at Wilander, last year’s winner. Track, distance and second-up perfect.

RACE 5

Unfortunately a small field and thus fraught with danger. Logically, Heart of Dreams and Whobe fight it out, but last year Douro Valley got away with murder in front and I’d be cautious about betting up here. Baughurst, though hardly a WFA type, is the one to throw in to the multiples.

RACE 6

The annual Toorak lottery. An excellent race. A non-winner at 1600 metre, Magical Pearl is nevertheless going in my multis. Love a WFA prep for a big handicap. Raheeb was dominant last week and will be deserved fav but is yet to show at The Heath. Pinnacles looked a treat in his box at Flemington and will improve, despite having lost that winning habit.

RACE 8

I’ve had a stormy relationship with Shocking this prep. Readers may recall my questions over each of his last two runs. Hard to lay and given no hope in the run. Even weighed in a kilogram over last time! I don’t like them tinkering with form. This horse just kept winning last time in and that becomes a habit. But he is a Caulfield Cup horse and far better away from the Valley. One more chance. Corey Brown, I’m watching you!

RACE 9

The get-out. I’m always critical of emotive punters, but here I am again knowing that I’ll have a little something on Arms Wide Open at big odds in the last. She’ll get back and need luck but ever since I saw her debut win at Ballarat I’ve been hooked. Fresh and Caulfield form justifies a “get out”.

Comments

  1. Mark Freeman says:

    Be interesting Crio how the stats on Sydney horses at Caulfield pot that good punters enjoyed for so many years reads since the relaying of the track. They talked up the camber improvement on the turn and it seemed to play that way in recent years with Sydney horses winning regularly. I think Trusting and Man. Rain have an advantage on Denman and So You Think because of the run they’ve had in the Guineas Preview, but hard to know just how much advantage that is now.

    Given us some nice ones there at odds, keep em coming.

  2. Crio,
    I can chime in at Race 3. Marquardt got mine in the Slipper and ran a good race. Has Man Rains scalp and I reckon the Shamardals are a good breed. 2 more friday afternoon chardonays and she’s a good thing.

    If Qld filly Paprika wins the Schillaci and I’m not on board, I wont be able to listen to the racing station up here for a month.

    The Toorak, and I am throwing out Allez Wonder. I said to Budge, I’ve got a kind of “La Neige” gut feeling about her. The $51 last night on fixed price is now $35. M. Payne can be a concern but I’m P.C and she’s a pretty good type. Budge alerted me to the run of All American last start amnd his preceding good run. Probably a bit of a culprit of a horse, but he did arrive on the scence with huge wraps and if they have got him right, he might be a very good result. I am going to box up some exotics with those two and get James Packer out of his current dilemna

    I’ll just take all the favs in the Guineas in a quaddie and treble (yeah we have them up here)

    Must admit, Black Bart is what’s got me feeling my gut, as something tells me Precedence might be above average and emerge as a genuine Cup chance. Pedigree has got more than a bit to do with it again. Other than him. The Kiwis.

    I agree with you that the last will throw out something at odds. Morgan has got a new edition to the stable in Antarctic Miss and you can never underestimate Grumpy. Russeting goes alright and one of my specials from 3 weeks ago lines up in Tootsie.

    Tootsie to win the last from an exotic selection of minor placegetters.

    I will be having an ALL BART quadie and treble. A secondary and thirdary quaddie and treble and fund it with the proceeds from Marquardt.

  3. Elvis,
    I understood little of that. Try the 5 in the last tonight. CB

  4. Crio

    Sorry mate,someone ordered banter. NUTSHELL: Get on JBC in the 6th through 9th.

    Legible?

  5. Don’t give Legible much hope. Hasn’t raced for a few years.

    Get on All American!!

  6. Blinkers first time significant for Barty’s Guineas colt.

  7. Genius Elvis – See makybe’s link for full recognition

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