Racing: Crio’s Super Saturday tip – watch the weather

by Chris Riordan

Flemington’s triple Group One Super Saturday promises to live up to its billing. The “Festival of Racing” has been beset with problems, especially the poor attendances and the withdrawal of anticipated drawcards. Negativity and Nikolic have too often been on sportspages instead of Starspangled and Little Lonhro. But at last the threatening dark clouds over Flemington represent an unfortunate weather forecast rather than a presage of further doom. Get there if you can, have a look at the wonderful horseflesh on display and have a cunning staking strategy- it’s a very tough day for punters but great value  will exist with some very open races. Watch to see how the track plays. It drains very effectively these days and so far (Friday 3pm in a classroom overlooking the course) little rain has eventuated. Watch for a racing pattern but be wary that often it is a pace based issue rather than a track bias.

I’ll be staying out of the first couple.

If Shaaheq (R1) runs up to its Diamond effort it probably wins, but I’ll not take 6/4 a maiden.

Avenue’s form last preparation smashes these (R2), but, although she’s mixed with the top shelf and this is considerably easier, I’ve not been taken with her runs and, as they say,  “prefer to watch”.

Willow Creek was a big tip for the Diamond – even part of an Elvis dream sequence – and the smart money arrived on-course only to be lost when she was poleaxed at the start. Her eye-catching 4th pointed to a compensatory Sires’ Produce (R3).

Marveen (R4) disappointed me last start but is better suited here and will probably get a last chance to carry my cash. Captain Coltish and co should ensure a hot pace in a very wide betting race.

The Kewney (R5) should be a leg of the Quaddy and features the return of the outstanding Faint Perfume whose Wakeful Stakes and Oaks dominance were at this track. She has the class but I doubt she’ll be knocked around first-up in a classy field. Rostova was impressive fresh and Irish Lights should now be ready to fire. Trim was sensationally backed upon her return but couldn’t match the magnificent More Joyous. That’s a pretty good pointer for this and she’s won here.

The Newmarket (R6) is often a raffle and is complicated by the handicap conditions and the confusing conundrum of which rail to punt. A dartboard might be as useful as a formguide. I be snipping Grand Sasso with a white stripe down his off side.

The much anticipated Guineas is next (R7) and, despite some discards in the lead-ups, recent weeks have thrown up some new and worthy challengers to Denman’s supposed stranglehold. His rating wavers from $1.6 to $1.8 with doubters questioning his calibre at the mile (ref Caulfield Guineas flop) and the supposed racing pattern. Linton has burst in to calculations with emphatic wins and Set for Fame is simply too good for the fillies and deserves her shot at glory. Excellent race. If the track chops up I’ll be saving on Bart’s Rock Classic based on his defeat of Monton on a Sydney bog two starts back.

Still alive in the Quaddy? You’re kidding. Next leg is the Australian Cup (R8). The lack of a genuine WFA horse complicates this race, with Heart of Dreams starting to earn a bridesmaid’s tag and most of the others having some convictions. Whereas in the sprint you could make a case “for” most runners, here I have a “knock” on too many. Will look for value and course experience. Certainly Sirmione in multiples.

Out of the Quaddy now? Desperate and confused! Estee to get out (R9).

Comments

  1. Still no rain at 9pm and confirmation from the track manager that he’ll put some water on tonight to ensure the standard Good4.

  2. Peter Flynn says:

    Crio,

    From Atlanta, Georgia, I’m thinking a 2 by 5 on Trusting in my 3rd favourite race of the year.

    Good punting to all.

    Flynny

  3. Can set you if you wish.

  4. mick geary says:

    Crio,

    I’ll be trackside with the kids. It’s Freeza’s bet for our Northcote syndicate tomorrow, but as he’s at WOMAdelaide (with all the hippies)I’ll be there with the pineapple to get on All Silent for him. I’ll call passed to check the odds.

    He’s been very nervous about the track condition – not wanting a wet or slippery track for AS. He’s been texting every hour to check conditions – I shall pass on your note about track watering (he’ll not sleep now).

    Good luck,

    Mick

  5. Crio,

    I just spent a good 45 minutes offering my selections and giving motive only to have the site have a f*#@ing attack on me, not for the first time, and losing everything. I can’t do it again.

    SUMMARY:

    RACE 5: FOMALITE each way and in multiples
    RACE 6: CANNONBALL (Headline “Cannonball Run”)each way and GRAN SASSO (ex sister to Rubitano, 2002 Nwmkt) along with TRUSTING as savers.

    RACE 7: LINTON in a mild boilover
    RACE 8: Already got the $34 OUR AQALEEM plus LITTORIO and EXTRA ZERO each way
    RACE 9: BIRD OF FIRE

  6. Elvis, I have that computer meltdown regularly. I now try to copy before sending…sorry we’ve missed your wisdom.
    It has barely sprinkled here and they’ll need to water the track. Radar shows rain all around us. Good luck with Our Aqaleem.

  7. Thanks Crio,

    One thing I had related was that I have intel from Groote Eylandt of all places. A bloke here is a part owner of a rising 2yo half bro to Kewney runner Fomalite. Apparently they recieved quite a substantial offer for the horse post purchase, seemingly on the back of Fomalites talent.

    One For E/W or multiples. I just backed her at $51 and though MV last start, stewards report stated that “over the final 100m she was disappointed for a clear run and went to the line unextended. It was Fri night racing, but check her form, it’s pretty good, and if the fav’s havn’t come up, she is over the odds.

    Hopefully Gai has had time to colonialise Cannonball and with such a great race begging an equally great Sunday headline, I’m tipping “Cannonball Run”

  8. Guess what Elvis…my last response got dumped! and I’d not copied etc. Essentially I’d been happy for a Kewney tip and thought it should have been a Quaddy leg.

  9. Fomalite 65 on Betfair

  10. Crio,

    Shite. I was going to tu

  11. Crio,

    Another dump. I was about to say I was about to turn in thinking I was in f`

  12. Crio,

    Sorry mate, thing is all shades. Good luck tomorrow and my regards to Marty.

  13. Peter Flynn says:

    Crio,

    Just seen a video of Flemington from afar. Extraordinary!

  14. What rain!!! I loved the guy carrying the table over his head in the downpour, but didn’t spill a drop of his beer!!!

  15. Gigs, that was the most prescient heading ever…watch the weather. I’ll do a brief review later.

  16. Thanks Tom. How good was that? Wouldn’t have believed what had happened if I hadn’t seen it on TV after we were forced off the ground in our cricket semi.

    Some great images.

  17. Peter Flynn says:

    My experience is that only drop beer when you are jober….

  18. johnharms says:

    Gigs

    Amazingly prophetic

    JTH

  19. Craig Down says:

    Crio
    39 wk pregnant wife gives me leave pass to
    attend Flemington for afternoon.
    Get to track 10 mins before Newmarket. Sky is
    as Rex puts it: black as a dogs guts. Watch race without
    a bet. Decide to head home straight after race.
    See Wanted have much deserved win. Walk toward
    Members’ exit. Take four steps outside before
    heavens open. Open area of betting ring looks like
    Whistler after 10 mins. Blokes start to look at Sydney and Ellerslie
    for a fix. An hour later the rain starts to dissipate. Shoes and socks off.
    Sprint with brother in law to his car (parked two feet of water). Car part driven part
    aquaplaned out of car park.
    Extraordinary day. Saw 1.10 of racing and took me three hours to leave!
    Good luck for the revised meeting next week.
    CD

  20. Should have huddled with us in the betting ring Craig. Computers and TVs waterlogged….got all nostalgic for the Western Oval!

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